re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Every theory of Ukrainian victory relies on magical thinking regarding some kind of extreme political collapse in Russia. There is evidence of fuel shortages in Crimea but there is no evidence of political instability in Russia. If anything, the most likely outcome of these Ukrainian/Western attacks on civilian infrastructure in Russia will only harden Russian resolve.

Magyar’s Poetry – The Crimean Cycle.

Moscow and the bunker grandpa will cling to Crimea until the very end as the main trophy of the war, even in “island mode.”

Of course – it’s a pillar of their ideology of greatness and a pile of perks, like turning the Sea of Azov into an “internal russian body of water,” and so on.

Even so, Crimea as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine is already a military absurdity.

Next comes the Freedom-Loving Ukrainian Bird’s borscht recipe: a complete collapse of air defense, punching holes through what remains of the fleet, stopping the shadow economy, TOTAL resource and logistics exhaustion, tourist default, an energy desert, transport lockdown, and so on…

Keep feeding it with subsidies, bunker grandpa, but don’t dream of controlling it – things will never be the way they were.

Ukrainians in the occupied territory, forgive us in advance for the constant air raid alerts, closed bridges and roads, darkness, noise, and stress from now on. Stay away from military facilities and anything flammable, share memes, and simply stay safe.
The Bird works with precision, but chips always fly when the forest is being chopped down.

There appears to be no other way to demilitarize the worms and smoke one million occupiers out of the peninsula. We know this kind of work well.

Crimea will bring Moscow down. It is the psychological breaking point, the needle holding up the skinny Koschei hidden right under our noses.

Every dictatorship collapses suddenly. Think of any example.

Today, Moscow’s Crimea is glitching. A suitcase without a handle is a heavy burden to carry.

The USF Birds are putting the Freedom-Loving Ukrainian Bird’s borscht recipe into practice in the TOT.

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So much winning...

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A collapse in the real estate market is observed in Sevastopol -

A local realtor and property agent, speaking on condition of anonymity [you bet ], told Crimea.Realities about this. According to his information, the supply in the real estate market in Sevastopol currently exceeds the demand by several times, which leads to a significant drop in prices in some segments of the market.

“Currently, the supply [for sale] in the real estate market is about five thousand apartments. At the same time, the number of people wishing to buy property in Sevastopol is falling, so some sellers of secondary housing are offering discounts of up to 40% just to sell it quickly. In the primary housing market, sales have dropped to 30%, which is causing confusion among developers. Last year, the demand for apartments in new buildings already decreased by 50%,” the expert said.

[What's 'Confusing' about an annualized 65% drop in sales? For clarity, just open the window tonight and listen. Actually, with the recent performance of the Russian AD, you'd better open two windows, one on each side of your apartment.]

According to his forecasts, the situation in the real estate market in the city will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. "Many [smart] residents of the city, especially those who moved here from neighboring Russia, are not ready to continue living in such conditions and are leaving the city."

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Every theory of Ukrainian victory relies on magical thinking

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You don't get it. If you've followed the trajectory of this war from the beginning, one thing would be abundantly clear:

Ukraine isn't the one who has to "win" this thing. Russia has to win it. They have to force Ukraine to relinquish their sovereignty and become a puppet state like Belarus. That was the goal in 2014, and again in 2022. And it remains the goal now.

All Ukraine has to do is hang on and not lose. Which it is doing far better than anyone ever expected. By the end of next year Ukraine will have the largest defense production industry in Europe. Bigger even than Germany. (And Germany has doubled their production in the past 5 years).

Russia cannot prosecute this war forever. The economies of the natuons supporting Ukraine are 35x the size of the economy of Russia.

All of Russia's problems are getting worse (manpower, liquidity, equipment, logistics, fuel, political support, allies, etc).

Whereas every single thing mentioned above is getting better for Ukraine. Including the situation on the battlefield.

You talk about "magical thinking". Demonstrate that for us. Tell us how Russia wins this thing.

Tell us how Russia wins this thing before we all find out whether Putin can fly out of windows.

Because the clock is ticking. And that's not magic.

He pops in when he thinks that Russia is winning, then claims some reason for not being active when it isn't.

The Russian spring O had resulted in minimal gains here and there, but Ikrainian gains were as much or more.

In the air war Russian terror raids cbtinye; while Ukraine strategically carved up Russia’s lines of logistics and their oil and gas infrastructure.

Ukraine had gained advantages that few saw coming.

Short of Nukes, What do you think Russia can do that it hasn't already done?

Where do you think Russia's ability to end this will come from?