re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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"What about" "what about" "what about"

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ISW and Rybar concur on the Russian advances which logically makes that info solid. If they agreed on the Uke advanced it would solidify that but if news so I asked Nate; since he post Rybar intel.

Why are you confused? Happy Hour early?

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What did Rybar say about the Uke advances in the South?

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They actually do not agree with western assessments which is why I have not posted.

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Damn. A genius like you who never lost an argument on here and that’s the best response you can come up with.

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Sorry, I was making fun of someone for whataboutism.

What did I do to make you so bitchy today? Dared to say "Ukraine might not win long term even though I'd like them to"?

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I’m just in a shite mood and tired of your pompous arse posting and battling everyone. :)

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It's a great day to be alive, cheer up buttercup. Go play some golf or something.

I'm headed to Beachcomber for conch fritters and then trying to hook onto a big shark tonight from the beach

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Russia’s oil exporters are warning buyers that cargoes from its key Baltic ports may not be delivered at all.

Russian producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out critical infrastructure this week.

The epicenter is Ust-Luga, one of Russia’s most important export terminals, where oil loadings have been halted since Wednesday following repeated strikes from Ukraine and a fire that, as of Friday, was still burning. Industry sources told Reuters that shipments may not resume until mid-April.

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Nearby Primorsk—another backbone of Russia’s Baltic export system—has fared only marginally better. It sustained damage but has partially resumed loadings. Even so, partial is doing a lot of work here. Together, the two ports represent a massive share of Russia’s seaborne crude and product flows.

Reuters calculations suggest up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline when factoring in port outages, pipeline disruptions, and tanker seizures.

And yet, paradoxically, Russia is making more money.

With Brent pushing past $100 and Urals crude reportedly trading near that same level amid a war-driven supply crunch, Moscow is seeing a surge in oil revenues. The spike has already prompted the Kremlin to shelve planned budget tightening and reconsider spending priorities, including military outlays.

Prices are papering over operational damage for now, but there is a limit.

Ukraine seems to be targeting Russia’s export capacity. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signaled that long-range strikes are designed to sustain pressure precisely as sanctions enforcement loosens and Russian barrels make their way back into global markets.

Russia can attempt to reroute flows through alternative outlets, including Black Sea ports or inland networks. But capacity is finite, and those routes are already under strain.

The potential force majeure announcement comes at a time when the oil market is already under strain. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already taken a significant chunk of oil and LNG supply off the market. Now layer in Russian export outages, and the result is a system with very little slack.

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Russia may declare Force Majeure on oil shipments from Baltic ports. Oilprice.com

I wonder if this is all drones? Have the Flamingo missiles been used. This is a hell of a lot of damage over 3 days and the Russians don't seem to have an answer.

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I wonder if this is all drones? Have the Flamingo missiles been used.

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There have been no reports of missiles being used in these Leningrad attacks. Yet.

The choice depends on the type and amount of air defense around a proposed target. If a target is lightly defended, as in this region, drones will be the choice as they are far cheaper than missiles and are a bit more dependable.

If the target is heavily defended, as at Yelabuga, drones are not as effective and missiles must be used. But so far, missiles have not been effective here either. To take down a target with that much AD, a sustained drone campaign against the AD units in the area must take place first. This will happen soon as Ukraine just needs the missile production to increase, which is happening now.

It's not known for sure, but there is some conjecture from good sources that Russia recently moved many of their air defense units away from the Leningrad Region to cover other targets further south. As the Leningrad area was thought to be out of reach for the Ukrainian drones.

Nothing more dangerous than denial.

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A hit by a “Flamingo” missile on the explosives production facility of JSC “Promsintez” in the city of Chapayevsk, morning of 28.03.2026.

An image of the missile that attacked the enterprise was published. It turned out to be an FP-5 “Flamingo” missile. A video of the impact and explosion in the production area, where explosive substances are synthesized, was also geolocated.

The enterprise is engaged in the production of a wide range of explosive substances for equipping a wide range of ammunition, aerial bombs, and missiles.

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LINK

In this video, you can actually see the Ukrainian drone circling around the Ust-Luga target positioning itself before it strikes.

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