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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 2:10 pm to Leopold
Posted on 1/30/26 at 2:10 pm to Leopold
quote:
Vol, c''mon - nobody said that.
They absolutely did..go look in the old thread.
quote:
Right now there is a genuine concern that the US could invade a fellow NATO country, not only ending NATO at a fundamental level but plunging mainstream Europe into a war with the foremost military power on the planet, thereby leaving the Baltic States exposed to Russian invasion.
If NATO doesn't exist anymore they wouldn't be attacking NATO. So sure, if NATO collapses you could see that. I would be shocked it NATO collapsed.
0
Posted on 1/30/26 at 2:11 pm to Leopold
quote:
The idea of peace through strength is being so strong that you stop wars before they start
quote:
NATO is the strongest military alliance in human history, and the most successful in that it prevented the Soviets and Communists from attacking them directly at a time when there was constant talk about using military force against Capitalists and Democracies, by picking a side and funding our allies.
Glad we agree
Posted on 1/30/26 at 2:26 pm to VolSquatch
Anton Gerashchenko
?@antongerashchenko.bsky.social?
Europe doesn’t need an apocalypse to lose to Russia.All it takes is a”bad peace"in Ukraine&a few well-timed crises in Europe itself.The essence of the scenario isn’t that Russia will”defeat NATO"in a major war.The essence is that the Kremlin can win without a major war
This has now become possible due to a combination of modern warfare tactics (drones, electronic warfare, cyber warfare, sabotage) and strategic reality: the world is returning to competition between great powers for spheres of influence, and Europe is seen as a desirable, poorly protected market.
The most dangerous scenario is not "tanks to Berlin," but the controlled destruction of European security through hybrid warfare and political paralysis.
Argument 1. "Bad peace" for Ukraine
Let us imagine a ceasefire that consolidates the de facto occupation of part of Ukraine without effective guarantees and without a mechanism to enforce compliance. This is not peace, but a "truce at gunpoint": it gives Russia time to replenish its resources, while leaving Ukraine in a state of gradual destruction. Modern warfare allows pressure to continue without large-column offensives: long-range strikes on energy and logistics, drone attacks, cyberattacks, sabotage, systematic disinformation, and political corrosion. The effect is not necessarily a military breakthrough, but demographic and economic exhaustion. This is important for Europe because a "frozen" front does not stabilize the continent but creates chronic instability on the eastern flank and opens up space for Russian coercion.
Argument 2. Russia is playing against NATO and the EU as a political system, not as an army
Russia's strategy in Europe has long since ceased to be based on classical force. Its tools are a "gray zone" combination: sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, influence operations, instrumentalization of migration flows, economic blackmail, and fueling polarization. The goal is not to seize territory tomorrow, but to make defense decisions politically toxic. Democracies react more slowly because decisions go through parliamentary cycles, coalitions, the media, protest sentiments, and legal restrictions. If society is tired and frightened by the "major war," even an obvious threat can cause indecision.
Argument 3. A war of "small bites," sabotage, and nuclear blackmail
The most plausible attack is one that will make the opponent hesitate rather than act. Hence the logic of the "small bite": a local incident on the eastern flank, presented as a limited operation to "protect Russian-speaking people" or "respond to provocations," as well as a signal: "Our goals are limited - don't escalate, you don't want a nuclear war." The technical capabilities of modern warfare do not require a tank march: electronic and cyber warfare can "blind" or slow down reconnaissance and communications, drones can create constant pressure without massive strikes, and sabotage can disrupt reinforcements or complicate logistics. All this creates the effect the Kremlin wants: a delay in the first 48-72 hours, when political will is most vulnerable.
?@antongerashchenko.bsky.social?
Europe doesn’t need an apocalypse to lose to Russia.All it takes is a”bad peace"in Ukraine&a few well-timed crises in Europe itself.The essence of the scenario isn’t that Russia will”defeat NATO"in a major war.The essence is that the Kremlin can win without a major war
This has now become possible due to a combination of modern warfare tactics (drones, electronic warfare, cyber warfare, sabotage) and strategic reality: the world is returning to competition between great powers for spheres of influence, and Europe is seen as a desirable, poorly protected market.
The most dangerous scenario is not "tanks to Berlin," but the controlled destruction of European security through hybrid warfare and political paralysis.
Argument 1. "Bad peace" for Ukraine
Let us imagine a ceasefire that consolidates the de facto occupation of part of Ukraine without effective guarantees and without a mechanism to enforce compliance. This is not peace, but a "truce at gunpoint": it gives Russia time to replenish its resources, while leaving Ukraine in a state of gradual destruction. Modern warfare allows pressure to continue without large-column offensives: long-range strikes on energy and logistics, drone attacks, cyberattacks, sabotage, systematic disinformation, and political corrosion. The effect is not necessarily a military breakthrough, but demographic and economic exhaustion. This is important for Europe because a "frozen" front does not stabilize the continent but creates chronic instability on the eastern flank and opens up space for Russian coercion.
Argument 2. Russia is playing against NATO and the EU as a political system, not as an army
Russia's strategy in Europe has long since ceased to be based on classical force. Its tools are a "gray zone" combination: sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, influence operations, instrumentalization of migration flows, economic blackmail, and fueling polarization. The goal is not to seize territory tomorrow, but to make defense decisions politically toxic. Democracies react more slowly because decisions go through parliamentary cycles, coalitions, the media, protest sentiments, and legal restrictions. If society is tired and frightened by the "major war," even an obvious threat can cause indecision.
Argument 3. A war of "small bites," sabotage, and nuclear blackmail
The most plausible attack is one that will make the opponent hesitate rather than act. Hence the logic of the "small bite": a local incident on the eastern flank, presented as a limited operation to "protect Russian-speaking people" or "respond to provocations," as well as a signal: "Our goals are limited - don't escalate, you don't want a nuclear war." The technical capabilities of modern warfare do not require a tank march: electronic and cyber warfare can "blind" or slow down reconnaissance and communications, drones can create constant pressure without massive strikes, and sabotage can disrupt reinforcements or complicate logistics. All this creates the effect the Kremlin wants: a delay in the first 48-72 hours, when political will is most vulnerable.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 3:01 pm to cypher
quote:
This has now become possible due to a combination of modern warfare tactics (drones, electronic warfare, cyber warfare, sabotage) and strategic reality: the world is returning to competition between great powers for spheres of influence, and Europe is seen as a desirable, poorly protected market.
Add to that list the simple buying of influence with enormous amounts of laundered Russian cash. Such as what is now propping up the London financial markets post-Brexit -
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/30/26 at 3:07 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Now this is truly a surprise. Or is this just an elaborate pull back to allow multiple double taps of electrical grid workers?
Sorry, but after all, they are Russians.
Sorry, but after all, they are Russians.
quote:
President Zelensky said there were almost no Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities overnight, with the exception of a single hit on gas infrastructure in the Donetsk region. He said Russia is shifting toward attacks on logistics and rail junctions, including a strike on a power-generating railcar in the Dnipro region. Zelensky said drone and aerial bomb attacks continued elsewhere, including a ballistic strike on Philip Morris warehouses in Kharkiv region. He said Ukraine did not strike Russian energy sites today and is ready to mirror restraint, noting a U.S.-proposed one-week pause on such attacks has begun.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/30/26 at 3:36 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Add to that list the simple buying of influence with enormous amounts of laundered Russian cash. Such as what is now propping up the London financial markets post-Brexit -
That influence was there starting in the 1990s. It just played a larger percentage role post Brexit. Iranian money too with the UK playing a role in overthrow of the Shah along with France. It was much easier making deals with the mullahs and more profitable too.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 4:12 pm to Leopold
quote:
Vol, c''mon - nobody said that.
There has been quite a bit of downplaying the threat of Russia's nukes over the life of the thread(s).
Posted on 1/30/26 at 4:19 pm to cypher
Of course, they are still playing their role in Ukraine.
This post was edited on 1/30/26 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:36 pm to Leopold
quote:Captain Marko Aleksandrovich Ramius was Lithuanian.
they only had Lithuania
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:15 pm to LSURussian
He was, but he moved to Maine.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:46 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The idea of peace through strength is being so strong that you stop wars before they start
quote:
NATO is the strongest military alliance in human history, and the most successful in that it prevented the Soviets and Communists from attacking them directly at a time when there was constant talk about using military force against Capitalists and Democracies, by picking a side and funding our allies.
Glad we agree
I'm sorry. It said 'funding,' as in other countries, but since you lack the simple reading comprehension I should have know this was going to be difficult. My mistake.
This post was edited on 1/30/26 at 7:51 pm
Posted on 1/30/26 at 9:05 pm to Leopold
Not in the part I quote tweeted, dumba... Sorry, "military analyst"
Posted on 1/30/26 at 9:22 pm to LSURussian
Sean Connery was so frickin badass
Posted on 1/30/26 at 9:39 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 1/31/26 at 2:06 am to CitizenK
With a 71-29 vote, the US Senate sends a message -
LINK
quote:
US Senate Advances Massive Funding Deal, Defies Ukraine Critics
By protecting aid for Ukraine and the Baltics, a bipartisan majority rejects Trump administration cuts.
quote:
Ukraine stays funded
At the heart of the package is a defense bill that sends a pointed message to the White House and House conservatives alike: the Senate is not retreating from US alliances.
The $838.7 billion Defense Appropriations Act rejects Trump’s proposals to eliminate funding for Ukraine and the Baltic Security Initiative, instead locking in $400 million for Ukraine and $200 million for security cooperation with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
It also restores funding for Taiwan security cooperation that House Republicans sought to cut, while pouring billions into munitions, shipbuilding and next-generation weapons aimed at deterring Russia and China.
quote:
Beyond geopolitics, the defense bill delivers a 3.8 percent pay rise for service members, boosts child care funding and restores billions for medical research – undoing a 40 percent cut enacted under last year’s stopgap spending law.
Foreign aid survives – barely The State and Foreign Operations bill also rebuffs Trump-era retrenchment, restoring funding for diplomacy, global health and food security while sustaining US engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
Still, even its backers acknowledged the bill reflects the scars of a yearlong assault on foreign assistance.
LINK
Posted on 1/31/26 at 2:10 am to Coeur du Tigre
Ok, it's official. Until it's not.
LINK
quote:
The Kremlin on Friday said President Vladimir Putin had agreed to stop striking Kyiv for a week -- ending Sunday -- following a request by his US counterpart Donald Trump.
LINK
Posted on 1/31/26 at 2:24 am to Coeur du Tigre
These tankers will still be in range at the Novorossiysk load port.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/31/26 at 2:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
The vultures are leaving nothing... Too bad.
LINK
quote:
LUKOIL’s assets at Chisinau airport transferred to Moldova
The Russian oil company LUKOIL (MOEX: LKOH) transferred its assets at Chisinau International Airport to the state property of Moldova. This was reported by the press service of the Moldovan Ministry of Energy.
The Public Property Agency and Chisinau International Airport signed an act on the transfer of a fuel terminal at the Chisinau airport with LUKOIL-Moldova on January 29. The fuel complex was transferred to LUKOIL-Moldova under a contract in 2005.
On December 15, 2025, the Investment Verification Board of Important for State Security (SEIS) demanded the return of the fuel terminal to the ownership of Moldova by January 9, 2026. LUKOIL did not comply with the requirement on time, and on January 16, SIIS imposed a fine of 5 million lei (about € 251,225 thousand) on it - the company paid it this week.
LINK
Posted on 1/31/26 at 11:31 am to Coeur du Tigre
A moment of silence for Grigory. But... If he's saying it, how many are thinking it...?
quote:
A Russian regional lawmaker publicly called for an immediate end to the war against Ukraine and was swiftly shut down by fellow deputies. At a session of the Samara regional assembly, 69-year-old Grigory Yeremeyev urged lawmakers to share responsibility with Putin for what he called the failure of the so-called special military operation, saying its goals are fundamentally unattainable. Yeremeyev argued Putin refuses to stop the war to avoid entering history as a defeated president. Other deputies interrupted him, demanded his microphone be turned off, and later unanimously voted to file a complaint against him with authorities.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/31/26 at 11:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
Is that John Barron sitting down on the far left?
This post was edited on 1/31/26 at 12:54 pm
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