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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 1/29/26 at 8:02 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 1/29/26 at 8:02 pm to LSURussian
quote:
For me the problem with living in one of those "former something" countries is they have too many foreigners...
Luring retirees or cyberworkers or just wealthy people from elsewhere seems to be their cottage industry... meanwhile, younger people have to leave in droves to find employment...
1
Posted on 1/29/26 at 8:10 pm to Lee B
As a direct result of this war, Atomic Scientists now put 'Doomsday Clock' closer to midnight than ever before:
Reuters: Atomic Scientists set Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight Than Ever
But hey, this war has nothing to do with us, right?! *snort*
Reuters: Atomic Scientists set Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight Than Ever
But hey, this war has nothing to do with us, right?! *snort*
Posted on 1/29/26 at 8:54 pm to Leopold
quote:
As a direct result of this war, Atomic Scientists now put 'Doomsday Clock' closer to midnight than ever before:
Let's be fair, here... they made sure to mention the aggressive behavior of President Trump as a factor, too.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 4:49 am to Lee B
From Bloomberg.
quote:
The number of Russian soldiers killed in action has jumped in recent weeks, a dynamic that if sustained could make it hard for the Kremlin to replace troops without some form of mobilisation, according to assessments by multiple European governments.
35,000 Russian troops were KIA in December, up from a 25,000 monthly average in the rest of 2025. These appalling losses could be a conservative estimate. Ukraine aims to increase that number to 50,000 per month.
The higher lethality is a result of more effective Ukrainian drone operations, with the ratio of Russians killed to wounded recently skewing much more toward killed. Ukraine is able to verify drone kills via video.
The number of fatalities has reached the Kremlin’s recruitment level. The trajectory would make it difficult to replace losses without a mobilisation drive, several of the people said.
But Putin is unlikely to opt for mobilisation because it would be deeply unpopular in Russia, leaving him facing a shrinking army that would have more problems making territorial gains.
It means the Russian narrative that it's winning on the ground, and Trump's claims that a Kremlin victory is inevitable eventually, are contested by the data which shows Russia is taking unsustainable losses.
It suggests Putin may be losing leverage at the negotiating table rather than gaining it. [Well, that has been occuring for some time now and cannot be reversed.]
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/30/26 at 4:56 am to Coeur du Tigre
In related news...
quote:
Russia is pulling sailors from its Navy, missile crews from its Strategic Rocket Forces, and airmen from its Aerospace Forces—and throwing them into Ukraine as infantry.
"They're raking up everything alive," wrote military analyst Viktor Kevliuk. "Such strange military units arise in the event of a severe shortage of operational reserves."
Pacific Fleet commander Admiral Avakyants was dismissed days after a "surprise inspection" and reassigned to run youth training centers. Admiral Avakyants' replacement proved far more cooperative.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine is humiliating Putin on the battlefield. Great piece about the ingenious asymmetrical tactics that won Ukraine the Battle of Kupiansk.
quote:
The battle for Kupiansk: inside Ukraine’s victory against the odds
Even as President Putin celebrated the capture of the Kharkiv city a covert task force crawled up pipes, infiltrated Kremlin positions and killed ten enemies for every loss of their own
quote:
The Russians had seemed able to infiltrate Ukrainian lines at will, using a disused gas pipeline to cross the Oskil and secure positions behind Kyiv’s forces, capturing a string of villages to the north.
quote:
By mid-September, several hundred of them were fanning out across the city.
quote:
On September 21 [Ukrainian commander] Sidorin was given three days to build a fighting force from units of the new 2nd “Khartiia” Corps that were not already engaged in combat. “They were all new to each other. It was a proper mess,” he recalled.
quote:
They asked open-source intelligence (Osint) groups that provide real-time maps of the war not to post updates on Ukrainian troop positions in the Kupiansk sector, and closed the area to journalists. The Russians could not understand what the true objective was until it was too late.
quote:
On December 2, President Putin announced Russia had taken full control of the city, seemingly unaware his troops there were already doomed. Zelensky appeared ten days later, and the Osint mappers were finally allowed to reveal what they already knew: suddenly, large swathes of reclaimed territory were marked blue on the Ukrainian DeepState map.
quote:
In the search and destroy group’s command centre, Sidorin poured a coffee and mused on how warfare had changed. “The tactics I was taught at a military institute 15 years ago will not work here in modern war,” he said. “We can’t build a standard defensive line. We make many positions of three to four people, not arranged in a line, but more like a chessboard.”
Very illuminating on new infantry tactics in a drone-dominated battlefield.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:32 am to Leopold
quote:
As a direct result of this war, Atomic Scientists now put 'Doomsday Clock' closer to midnight than ever before:
Reuters: Atomic Scientists set Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight Than Ever
But hey, this war has nothing to do with us, right?! *snort*
You must not have been here when a bunch of the regulars told us not to worry about Russia's nuclear weapons. "They *probably* only have like *30* that even work!".
Of course it's also pretty obvious (at least to me) that our continued involvement in the war makes a nuclear event more likely since Russia is already a wounded animal and we are doing things like seizing ships *snort*
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:36 am to CitizenK
quote:
While a Russian attack could take much if not all of Estonia, it cannot hold it after NATO reinforcements arrive.
Pretending that Russia is going to attack NATO is a LARP.
Pretty much the defining reason Russia decided to attack Ukraine when they did was to start a war before Ukraine joined NATO.
They are dumb but not suicidal.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:05 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Of course it's also pretty obvious (at least to me) that our continued involvement in the war makes a nuclear event more likely since Russia is already a wounded animal and we are doing things like seizing ships *snort*
Or our involvement has made a bigger war less likely because some are standing up to this generation’s bully.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:16 am to doubleb
quote:
Or our involvement has made a bigger war less likely
And a nuclear exchange right now more likely.
You could argue that we don't really know if it has made a bigger war less likely. It's all but eliminated the possibility of one in the next 10-15 years, but I think the next 20-30 years are more cloudy than they were before this war.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:04 am to VolSquatch
quote:
You could argue that we don't really know if it has made a bigger war less likely. It's all but eliminated the possibility of one in the next 10-15 years, but I think the next 20-30 years are more cloudy than they were before this war.
Nobody really knows. All we can go by is what has happened in the past, and that’s no guarantee that things won’t change.
I’ve always believed in peace through strength. Standing up to bullies works, but I understand the opposite point of view.
It’s the world we live in and unfortunately we see too many greedy war mongers out there and fewer that want to work with what they have to better themselves instead of taking from others.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:19 am to doubleb
quote:
I’ve always believed in peace through strength. Standing up to bullies works, but I understand the opposite point of view.
The idea of peace through strength is being so strong that you stop wars before they start, it doesn't really have anything to do with choosing to fund and supply one side or the other. To me those are entirely separate ideals, the former being something I hope most people can get behind and the latter being something we should decide on as we see fit.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:51 am to VolSquatch
quote:
The idea of peace through strength is being so strong that you stop wars before they start, it doesn't really have anything to do with choosing to fund and supply one side or the other. To me those are entirely separate ideals, the former being something I hope most people can get behind and the latter being something we should decide on as we see fit.
I think by supporting a country in their efforts to defend themselves against the bully, we let the bully know that he can’t get away with attacking his neighbors without suffering consequences.
In the case of Ukraine we saw in 2024 their invasion of Crimea and the Donbas brought little retaliation. 2022 they ratcheted up their efforts in Ukraine, but to their surprise Ukraine held on and the West jumped in to support Ukraine.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 9:48 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Pretending that Russia is going to attack NATO is a LARP.
It would be easy to overrun a small nation with not enough population to have even a decent sized military. Estonia doesn't even have an air force.
Plus, Estonia has a lot more females than males. Even ugly midget men have a chance to score a young hot gal.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 9:50 am to CitizenK
quote:So you're saying I've got a chance?!?
Estonia has a lot more females than males. Even ugly midget men have a chance to score a young hot gal.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 9:52 am to LSURussian
quote:
So you're saying I've got a chance?!?
I might be talking about myself!
Posted on 1/30/26 at 11:34 am to VolSquatch
quote:
You must not have been here when a bunch of the regulars told us not to worry about Russia's nuclear weapons. "They *probably* only have like *30* that even work!".
Of course it's also pretty obvious (at least to me) that our continued involvement in the war makes a nuclear event more likely since Russia is already a wounded animal and we are doing things like seizing ships *snort*
Vol, c''mon - nobody said that. What I and others have said is that Russia is at a distinct tactical, operational, and strategic disadvantage because there is good reason to believe they haven't taken proper care of their nuclear arsenal and that their nuclear subs and bombers are not to the standard that they advertised. There's a world of difference there.
As far as our involvement goes, if someone wants to argue that we want to stay out of this war then I understand that; I don't agree with it, mind you, but there's a small argument to be made there.
But that means we don't send a real estate developer and the President's doofus son-in-law to negotiate geopolitics with the foremost negotiators on the planet. THAT'S what's making this war worse - two greedy, unprepared, no-experienced, easily manipulated lackeys who are clearly biased towards the Russians, the very party in this conflict that is 100% to blame for this war.
And we're seizing ships because it is now, and always has been, illegal. Nothing about this war changed that except for the fact that the Europeans and others are actually enforcing what was always written and encoded law. That, and the addition of a number of ships. So they should have been doing that anyway.
quote:
Pretending that Russia is going to attack NATO is a LARP.
Right now there is a genuine concern that the US could invade a fellow NATO country, not only ending NATO at a fundamental level but plunging mainstream Europe into a war with the foremost military power on the planet, thereby leaving the Baltic States exposed to Russian invasion.
Anybody - and I mean anybody - who thinks that this is just a 'LARP' isn't paying proper attention to geopolitics right now or is lying to you.
This post was edited on 1/30/26 at 11:55 am
Posted on 1/30/26 at 11:46 am to VolSquatch
quote:
The idea of peace through strength is being so strong that you stop wars before they start, it doesn't really have anything to do with choosing to fund and supply one side or the other.
This is fundamentally wrong.
NATO is the strongest military alliance in human history, and the most successful in that it prevented the Soviets and Communists from attacking them directly at a time when there was constant talk about using military force against Capitalists and Democracies, by picking a side and funding our allies.
People have correctly pointed out that NATO in many ways was a bribe, one where we paid for the Europeans to be the front line of the Cold War when we all believed it would turn hot, and where we leveraged our economic power into political and military power. It happened in third world countries, too, where they were on the fence. Hell, it's the basis for the damned Green Berets, who jump in and recruit, train, fund, and lead other people into battle against common enemies.
We just decided that we didn't want to pay, and while it's been frustrating watching the last generation of presidents refuse to acknowledge that we needed a new model that doesn't mean we stop funding or paying altogether. We need to re-examine the geopolitical situation in the world and do a FAR better job managing those goals and and expectations.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 11:48 am to LSURussian
quote:
Estonia has a lot more females than males. Even ugly midget men have a chance to score a young hot gal.
So you're saying I've got a chance?!?
Sorry, they only had Lithuania, not Estonia, but there's still probably some good tips there:
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