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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Posted on 1/5/26 at 4:11 am to
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4325 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 4:11 am to
Less than great.
quote:

Vasyl Malyuk has reportedly agreed to resign as head of Ukraine’s Security Service after growing pressure from President Zelensky. Malyuk had initially refused, citing key ongoing operations, including one comparable to “Spiderweb,” and warned that stepping down would harm national security.

Despite public and military support, Zelensky, frustrated by what he viewed as an SBU-led media push, threatened to remove him by decree. The President’s Office also accused the SBU of undermining anti-corruption efforts and engaging in “commercial schemes” in the rear.

Malyuk ultimately agreed to resign to avoid a political crisis. General Yevhen Khmara of Alpha Group is being considered as interim chief. Zelensky’s team is also eyeing General Oleksandr Poklad, a figure close to Andriy Yermak.



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Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 5:31 am to
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 6:02 am to
quote:

engaging in “commercial schemes” in the rear


You don't say? Props to Zelensky for stopping it.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 6:02 am to
Germans
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 6:57 am to
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 8:39 am to
?Anton Gerashchenko?
?@antongerashchenko.bsky.social?

Zelenskyy has appointed Yevhenii Khmara,head of Ukraine's Security Service Alpha special operations unit,as acting head of the SSU

Khmara is the author&organizer of drone attacks on Russia,including #Spiderweb. He’s also known for leading the operation to liberate Zmiinyi Island from Russians
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4325 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 9:35 am to
Just STFU, Chapter 2 -


quote:

Russian special forces veterans say that the US operation in Venezuela was no big deal and they could easily have done the same with their own superior capabilities. However, they haven't attempted to kidnap Zelenskyy because of their respect for international law.

Veterans of the Russian Alpha Group, an elite special forces (spetsnaz) unit of the Federal Security Service (FSB), have been speaking about their impressions of the US capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. They say it was competent but unimpressive.

FSB colonel and former Alpha Group veteran Vitaly Demidkin says: "They [US Delta Force] acted illegally, inhumanely, and unlawfully, but probably in a normal way. I think that, on the whole, the operation was not that impressive, but rather mediocre."

"There was no resistance, they quickly entered, apparently bribed everyone, found corrupt people, and that was it: they opened the doors."

Igor Senin, another Alpha Group veteran, is similarly unimpressed:

"It didn't take much thought, because the operation was prepared on a grand scale: first, all the infrastructure was taken out, all the main combat points and military facilities that could offer resistance were suppressed. Only then was the main capture itself prepared...

"In other words, they basically entered a building that had already been prepared for them. I don't see any particular professionalism here."

Demidkin says that the Alpha Group is far superior to the US Delta Force, which reportedly carried out the capture of Maduro:

"Our guys are better in every way. In the number of operations, the number of rescued citizens and hostages. They act in seconds, freeing planes, houses, and apartments. And our spirit is probably stronger.

"After all, we fought and continue to fight not for money, but for people in need."

He hasn't heard of Delta Force achieving much of anything before, but would be happy to "meet them somewhere. I mean, on the battlefield or in some other operation."

Both veterans say that the Alpha Group could easily capture President Zelenskyy if ordered to, but Russia hasn't done this for political reasons. Senin says:

"First of all, it's politics. If they'd given the order to carry out such work, it would have been done long ago."

"Just about four months ago, our veteran guys captured about three FBI and CIA agents. No one even managed to resist."

Demidkin is similarly confident: "We could simply kidnap Zelenskyy, but we're complying with international law. So, we're not taking that action yet."

"But if there's an order from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, I think it's a no-brainer. Study him, track him down, and quietly take him."


Here they are, the cream of the Ru crop - the legally compliant Kemerovo OMON at Hostomel:

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Russian “delta force” seen outside Kyiv in Feb 2022. NSFW.

Ouch. And also NSFW.

Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 9:47 am to
Thats hilarious. "We totally could have done that"... Well you tried and failed already.

The cope I've seen from the Russian side on X has mostly been comparing the op to 2014, saying they took Crimea without a shot being fired. And also that since the US did that to Maduro that it justifies what they are doing/attempting/currently failing to do in Ukraine.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 10:03 am to
quote:

Thats hilarious. "We totally could have done that"... Well you tried and failed already. The cope I've seen from the Russian side on X has mostly been comparing the op to 2014, saying they took Crimea without a shot being fired. And also that since the US did that to Maduro that it justifies what they are doing/attempting/currently failing to do in Ukraine.


What Russia did in Ukraine is comparable to what Germany did to Poland except Russia failed in executing their plan, and Germany succeeded.
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
32732 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 10:28 am to
quote:

Following the fall of Maduro, many Russian war bloggers are starting to realize in what bad shape Russia is. The events in Venezuela are unanimously considered a strategic Russian defeat, and they admit that Russia is currently too weak to help any Russian allies.


I’m not sure this isn’t exactly a scenario planned out by Putin though…swapping Venezuela for Ukraine on the chess board.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 10:49 am to
quote:

I’m not sure this isn’t exactly a scenario planned out by Putin though…swapping Venezuela for Ukraine on the chess board.


Yeah... Russia really has not had the means to help any allies in this hemisphere for decades. They have one non-functional aircraft carrier... their subs are apparently easily tracked because a supply ship has to trail them closely on the surface.

China does not have a blue water navy and does not seem to be building one, really. Their obsession is with controlling the seas and islands/countries closest to them.

I think someone (Putin or a previous Russian, when Trump visited Russia in 1987 and then came back and started running full page ads attacking the concept of NATO, during the Cold War) sold Trump on a vision of "Great Power Spheres of Influence," where "America First" means the US just controls all of the Americas and whoever is biggest/strongest takes the other parts of the world, and they all just isolate themselves, pretty much, turning military and security things internally to destroy dissent. Of course trade and "deals" can still happen... benefitting the Oligarchs in charge,

The view he's constantly expressing of the world underscores that, for me... and he made Rubio talk that concept up.

The problem is that the U.S. democratically elects leaders and that can be scuttled in a few election cycles. But if you head over the rest of the Poli Board you can find a lot of people in support of eliminating that inconvenience, so we dispense with democracy.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4325 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 10:50 am to
More whining from the Russian Mir, but this time with less denial. Much less -

quote:

Vladimir Putin's heavy investment in the regime of Venezuelan former President Nicolás Maduro has been a costly and disastrous failure, according to Russian commentators. They admit that Russia is too weak to stop its allies from being picked off one by one by the West.




quote:

Maxim Kalashnikov is scathing about what the fall of Maduro means for Russian foreign policy, saying that it "marks the collapse of the Russian leadership's long-standing PR-fueled foreign policy."

"For a long time, it resembled a fireworks display: much noise and hype, but no real benefit to the development and industrialisation of the Russian Federation, or to the reunification of the Russian people.

"Let's just dump $20 billion into the "black hole" of raw materials-fueled pseudo-socialism in Venezuela, never to be recouped.Let's bury a comparable amount of resources in Syria, which we absolutely do not need (but then miss the chance for Novorossiya and completely neglect the migration problem in Russia). Let's create naval bases in Syria and Sudan, for which we don't even have a navy. But we'll lose the chance to take Odesa and unite with Transnistria...

"All of this has ended in a predictable fiasco. Now there is no Syria, no Sudan, no Venezuela. Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv are in Banderite [Ukrainian] hands, Transnistria is blockaded and hanging by a thread.

"Russia has been swept out of the Transcaucasus and is being removed from Central Asia. The enormous resources squandered on "foreign policy pyrotechnics" can no longer be recovered. NATO has now been reinforced by Finns and Swedes.

"After all, you can't count your chickens before they hatch. And now, this "autumn for the patriarch" [i.e. Putin] is upon us.

"It's a shame. The chances we've had since 2000 were magical. And it's a shame they've been relegated to the category of lost victories. A gloomy time lies ahead..."

Alexander Kartavykh is similarly scathing about the waste of resources that the Maduro regime represented for Russia: "Even Maduro wouldn't have given us anything; have you seen what's happening with the economy? They didn't even pay the security forces anything. Because they're idiots, not so much greedy as stupid. That's why they were abandoned so easily, actually.

"In short, they might as well have given a homeless guy working on a heating main a few grand in "investments." And then expect him to drink it all away, start a new life, and one day give back every penny.


"Don't bother me, write off the expenses, and move on. Optionally, you can hang those who lobbied for this loan, because it didn't seem worthwhile even before the invasion. And in any case, don't interfere with enjoying the best post-New Year's show of 2026."


'The Ghost of Novorossiya' criticises Venezuela's apparent lack of preparedness for the US intervention, and comments that from a geopolitical perspective, "I would say the picture is grim."

"At the end of 2024, the Assad regime falls in Syria; in the summer of 2025, American-Israeli efforts inflict colossal damage on Iran; now Venezuela is being sidelined."

"The Western bloc is methodically identifying weak elements among the so-called "revisionist powers" and eliminating them precisely when they are most difficult to help.

"This avoids a disadvantageous frontal clash with Russia and China, allowing for small changes in the international balance of power for tougher negotiations with Moscow and Beijing in the future.

"In this context, it's appropriate to predict a further increase in tensions in regions where Russian interests are present, but which are also peripheral, far away, and of significantly lower priority compared to the main Ukrainian issue.

"These are regions where our allies face a number of acute socioeconomic challenges, where the potential for rebellion by the hostile opposition is high, and where our rivals find it convenient to sponsor provocations.

"I don't rule out that sooner or later, they will try to push us out of Africa using this strategy. Will we be ready for this?"

The 'Russian People's Militia (RND)' asks and answers the question of "Why didn't Russia help its strategic partner in South America? Was it really impossible to do anything?"

"You won't like the answer.

Russia has long been past the point of assistance in America, Africa, or the Middle East. We need to help ourselves, at least, to get out of the Special Military Operation in a draw.

"The most we can do in a situation like Maduro's is to "puff ourselves up," expressing deep concern and resolute protests at the UN.

And, of course, write off billions in debt to African countries and those same South and Latin America as "brotherly aid."

"Bashar al-Assad, now sitting in front of the TV in Moscow, watching the handcuffed Maduro, probably thinks he got off easy, having completely lost his country and fled it in time.

"As for the Americans, they couldn't care less what their various [European] partners think of them. Even if those partners roll out thousands of protest notes and hundreds of concerns.

"So the "cooks" can curse "Vaska the Cat" [Russian UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya] in the UN building as much as they want. He'll listen to them (with one ear) and silently devour the supplies "in the house."

Libya, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Venezuela.

Who's next?"

/end


LINK
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4325 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 11:07 am to
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
32732 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 11:09 am to
Fiona Hill in 2019:

quote:

And I was also told by Amos and other colleagues that they had some linkages, so I also want to, you know, get you to step back at thi s period. Th j s i s, you know, l'4arch, Apri1, into May, where we were having a standoff over Venezuela. And the Russ'ians at this particular juncture were signaling very strongly that they wanted to somehow make some Very strange SWap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukra'ine. In other words, if We were going to exert some semblance of the l4onroe Doctrine of, yotl know, Russia keeping out of our backyard, because this js after the Russians had sent in these hundred operatives eSSentially to, you know, baSically secure the Venezuelan Government and, you know, to preempt what they were obviously taking to be some kind of U.S. military act'ion, they were basically signaling: You know, you have your Monroe doctrine. You want us out of your backyard. We11, you know, we have our own version of this. You' re i n our backyard i n Ukrai ne. And we were ge'-ti ng that sent to us, you know, kind of informally through channels. It was in the Russian press, various commentators.


quote:

MR. ZELDIN: That's why I'm asking the question. So specifically with regards to the first round of questions, you stated something about Venezuela and Russia. Do you recall talking about some type of DR. HILL: Yes. I said that the Russi ans si gnaled, including publicly through the press and through press articles that's the way that they operate that they were interested in they lajd'it out in articles, I mean a 1ot of them in Russian but, you know, obviously, your staff and Congressional Research Service can find them for you positing that, as the U.S. was so concerned about the Monroe Doctrine and its own backyard, perhaps the U.S. might also be then concerned about developments in Russja's backyard as in Ukraine, making it very obvious that they were trying to set up some kind of let's just say: You stay out of Ukraine or you move out of Ukraine, you change your
posi ti on on Ukrai ne, and, you know, we'11 rethi nk where we
are wi th Venezueta.
And I said that I went to Moscow. It wasn't a
classified trip because I was going to meet with Russians.
And in the course of those discussjons, it was also apparent,
including with a Russian think tank and other members, that
the Russian Government was'interested in having a discussion
about Venezuela and Ukraine.
MR. ZELDiN: And just for my own knowledge then, so
that's something that it's all been publicly reported,
everything's unclassif ied there?
DR. HILL: It's been reported and that the Russjans, the
Russians themselves made it very clear in unclassjfjed public
settings that they were interested at some point in and,
'in f act, i t was even reported i n the press that I had gone to
Russia, by someone that asked a question of our State
Department officiats in doing a press briefi ng: Had I gone
to Russia at the time to make a trade between Venezuela and
Ukraine? It was asked as a question to Christopher Robinson
during a press briefing at the State Department.


LINK

Forgive the choppy formatting. Had to copy & paste from a pdf’d transcript.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 11:23 am to
Russia is getting its arse kicked on the world stage.

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine has to be the biggest mistake in the history of Russia.

They have certainly lost their status as a superpower. If it wasn't for their nuclear arsenal, they would be 3rd world.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 11:28 am to
A military Superpower has the ability of global force projection, not just a nuclear arsenal. After the collapse of the U.S.S.R., that only left the U.S., and the coalition of NATO. China was never at that level... Russia, alone, was not, either.

So they both embarked on a campaign to convince the U.S. that we should not be, either. Social media came along and made it easy.

And to be clear, the first people they convinced of that, and easily, was the Left... even over to old Centrists like Biden, and then they started on the RIght once they were similarly disillusioned with W. Bush's military adventurism. The Right can't resist but be excited by military adventurism, as long as it's someone smaller who is no match and doesn't inflict casualties and there's no tedious and costly occupation attached, apparently.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 11:35 am to
quote:

Russia is getting its arse kicked on the world stage.

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine has to be the biggest mistake in the history of Russia.

They have certainly lost their status as a superpower. If it wasn't for their nuclear arsenal, they would be 3rd world.



They are 3rd World... with a nuclear arsenal. When a large chunk of your population lives in poverty and has no indoor plumbing, nukes don't elevate you
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

When a large chunk of your population lives in poverty and has no indoor plumbing, nukes don't elevate you


The fact that Maduro got drug out of his bed in pajamas and Kim is still the Supreme Leader of NK says otherwise
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

And to be clear, the first people they convinced of that, and easily, was the Left... even over to old Centrists like Biden, and then they started on the RIght once they were similarly disillusioned with W. Bush's military adventurism. The Right can't resist but be excited by military adventurism, as long as it's someone smaller who is no match and doesn't inflict casualties and there's no tedious and costly occupation attached, apparently


The Iraq/Afghanistan war convinced a lot of people of that.

Then you factor in an American population that increasingly feels left behind for one reason or another. That the American dream is dead. "Why are we spending billions per year on other countries?" Isn't an unreasonable question.

That's a perfectly valid worldview. But it's also valid that the world is probably better off with us playing "world police force" vs us not doing it.

I just want to see a balance. An America where we pick and choose our battles instead of Ladybug Lindsay Graham and his ilk foaming at the mouth every time he sees potential to increase the share value of Lockheed Martin and wanting us to get involved in something.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 1/5/26 at 12:57 pm to
Big whoop on that 2019 testimony. Before 2022, and before Syria and now Iran. Russia is losing face on the world stage bigtime and Putin has lost face at home in Russia. He has even lost leverage in Ukraine.
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