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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 1/5/26 at 10:26 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 1/5/26 at 10:26 pm to VolSquatch
Ukraine drones have kept Moscow's airports closed for 3 days in a row now.
This post was edited on 1/5/26 at 10:28 pm
2
Posted on 1/6/26 at 1:44 am to Lee B
For a lot of reasons, Oil Companies are not expressing excitement over building up infrastructure in Venezuela... the cost being one big reason, and the big giant elephant in the room being hostility and violence and terrorism being directed at them in an unstable country...
so...
Business Insider: Trump says the US could pay American oil companies for work in Venezuela
• Trump said the US may reimburse oil firms for expanding operations in Venezuela.
• Venezuela's oil output is low due to sanctions, corruption, and damaged infrastructure.
• More Venezuelan oil could lower prices and disincentivize US players like Exxon and Chevron.
You have to spend money to make money, I guess... right?
so...
Business Insider: Trump says the US could pay American oil companies for work in Venezuela
• Trump said the US may reimburse oil firms for expanding operations in Venezuela.
• Venezuela's oil output is low due to sanctions, corruption, and damaged infrastructure.
• More Venezuelan oil could lower prices and disincentivize US players like Exxon and Chevron.
You have to spend money to make money, I guess... right?
Posted on 1/6/26 at 1:48 am to CitizenK
quote:
Mykhailo Fedorov’s anticipated appointment as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense signals the conclusion of one of the country’s longest-running personnel sagas. A central figure in military tech innovation throughout the war, Fedorov has consistently pushed for a radical transformation of Ukraine’s defense structure, including drone warfare and digital command systems.
His previous attempts to assume the role were blocked by institutional resistance, but insiders suggest his appointment now may open the door for sweeping reforms. Defense Minister Shmyhal, who temporarily led the ministry, was seen as a caretaker, Fedorov is expected to lead a broader modernization drive. His arrival could also prompt changes in senior military leadership.
According to sources, Fedorov previously advocated replacing General Syrskyi and his team to inject new operational culture into the Armed Forces. The extent to which he can overcome internal resistance remains a key question.
Actually, it's the only real question. Without this, nothing good happens. The guy you want in position in this situation is the guy that knows who is causing the holdups and has the full backing of the Cabinet to get rid of these people. Fire.Them.
We will know soon if Federov will succeed or not. If he is attacked in the media as corrupt, traitorous, incompetent or all three, it will be a good sign that the 'internal resistance' is sweating. If there is a bloodbath of MoD administrators announced this month, he will be on track to correct the situation. If everyone keeps their jobs or we get a musical chairs job exchange, it's a failure. He must identify and put the assholes on the curb.
"It's not the ones you fire that get you into trouble, it's the ones you don't fire."
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/6/26 at 2:14 am to Coeur du Tigre
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
quote:
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
quote:
July 2024: Remnants of PMC Wagner Group in name only - now part of the Russian National Guard Africa Corps, ambushed at Tinzaouanten in Mali, 50 to 80 Russians killed, a helicopter is shot down, 6 MRAPs and 14 trucks destroyed. It's the worst Russian defeat outside of Ukraine since Conoco Fields in Syria.
quote:
April 2025: United States threatens to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program if Tehran doesn’t comply with earlier agreements. Iran asks for Russian help, and Russian deepens cooperation and military ties. The U.S. and Israel bomb Iran in June 2025, and Russia does nothing. Additionally, Russian air defense systems were completely ineffective.
quote:
June 2025: PMC Wagner remnants declare "mission accomplished" in Mali and withdraw in August, replaced by regular Russian troops, with the National Guard Africa Corps. The security situation rapidly deteriorates in the Sahel as Muslim extremists blow up fuel convoys, causing an energy crisis.
quote:
December 2025: Sudanese government “pauses” earlier agreement with Russia to build a Navy Base at Port Sudan due to ongoing Civil War. Prior to 2024, PMC Wagner Group supported/trained/armed the RSF from 2017 to November 2023.
quote:
January 2026: United States launched a 3-hour “special military operation” in Venezuela and exfiltrated dictator Nicolas Maduro, two months after Russia pledged to assist Venezuelan security. Putin hides in a bunker, Ramzan "don-don" Kaydrov makes idle threats, and Russian milbloggers complain the only successful exfiltration in Ukraine was a raccoon from the Kherson Zoo.
This post was edited on 1/6/26 at 2:20 am
Posted on 1/6/26 at 2:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. The US needs to get rid of all these old, useless missiles - pay Ukraine to dispose of all of them properly.
Posted on 1/6/26 at 3:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 1/6/26 at 4:11 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 1/6/26 at 4:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
More critical thinking from the Master Strategist. This will work out well. If / when Putin loses Chechnya it will be the accelerant that would make security in Russia impossible.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/6/26 at 4:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 1/6/26 at 7:12 am to CitizenK
All change: why Zelenskyy needs to reshuffle Budanov, Fedorov, Shmyhal, Maliuk and other top officials
Roman Romaniuk
5 January, 05:30
What triggered this transformation was the resignation of the omnipresent Andrii Yermak as head of the President's Office – Zelenskyy's chief of staff. For Zelenskyy, Yermak had functioned as chief cook and bottle-washer, covering government management, military matters and geopolitics all at once, meaning his sudden exit risked pushing the system close to paralysis.
Zelenskyy had two options: either find a way to preserve Yermak's influence covertly through various proxies operating in the shadows, or embark on a radical restructuring of the entire system, attempting to shore up his power with the last remaining members of his team who still had positive political significance.
After hesitating for more than a month, the president chose the second, far more difficult path. The current reshuffle does not yet amount to a complete excision of Yermak's tentacles from the system, but the overall mood suggests that this is only a matter of time.
Ukrainska Pravda
Roman Romaniuk
5 January, 05:30
What triggered this transformation was the resignation of the omnipresent Andrii Yermak as head of the President's Office – Zelenskyy's chief of staff. For Zelenskyy, Yermak had functioned as chief cook and bottle-washer, covering government management, military matters and geopolitics all at once, meaning his sudden exit risked pushing the system close to paralysis.
Zelenskyy had two options: either find a way to preserve Yermak's influence covertly through various proxies operating in the shadows, or embark on a radical restructuring of the entire system, attempting to shore up his power with the last remaining members of his team who still had positive political significance.
After hesitating for more than a month, the president chose the second, far more difficult path. The current reshuffle does not yet amount to a complete excision of Yermak's tentacles from the system, but the overall mood suggests that this is only a matter of time.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 1/6/26 at 8:00 am to cypher
quote:
All change: why Zelenskyy needs to reshuffle Budanov, Fedorov, Shmyhal, Maliuk and other top officials
Illuminating article. I had not read so much background on all the players and issues. Let's hope the right choices outweigh the other kind.
Posted on 1/6/26 at 11:22 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 1/6/26 at 11:40 am to Lee B
quote:
Business Insider: Trump says the US could pay American oil companies for work in Venezuela
You mean my tax dollars get used to take down an isolated dictator so that more of my tax dollars can get sent to oil companies so that they can make more money and then use even MORE of my tax dollars to take down other isolated dictators that weren't affecting me?!
I mean, what could go wrong here?
Posted on 1/6/26 at 12:05 pm to Leopold
quote:
quote:
Business Insider: Trump says the US could pay American oil companies for work in Venezuela
You mean my tax dollars get used to take down an isolated dictator so that more of my tax dollars can get sent to oil companies so that they can make more money and then use even MORE of my tax dollars to take down other isolated dictators that weren't affecting me?!
I mean, what could go wrong here?
You forget about the boots on the ground needed to protect those oil companies, that's going to cost a lot as well... bases, independent contractors that service the bases, security for the independent contractors...
Posted on 1/6/26 at 12:22 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 1/6/26 at 12:23 pm to Lee B
quote:
I think someone (Putin or a previous Russian, when Trump visited Russia in 1987 and then came back and started running full page ads attacking the concept of NATO, during the Cold War) sold Trump on a vision of "Great Power Spheres of Influence," where "America First" means the US just controls all of the Americas and whoever is biggest/strongest takes the other parts of the world, and they all just isolate themselves, pretty much, turning military and security things internally to destroy dissent. Of course trade and "deals" can still happen... benefitting the Oligarchs in charge,
This is exactly the plan.
The massive problem (among others) is that neither Russia nor China are capable of running their respective 'spheres' - it's laughable at how corrupt, incompetent, and just plain stupid Russia is and there are indications that China could have the exact same problems, possibly even worse.
As a result, this is a HORRIBLE deal for the United States. Oh, it's great for whomever is running the country and attempts to use this as a way to pillage our citizenry and interfere in sovereign nations with huge oil reserves, but it absolutely limits American influence in a world where globalization is going to happen no matter who doesn't want it.
Posted on 1/6/26 at 12:27 pm to Leopold
Posted on 1/6/26 at 12:31 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The US needs to get rid of all these old, useless missiles - pay Ukraine to dispose of all of them properly.
Making computer chips to use terrain guidance when these were built required then state of the art dedicated chips. Now there are many better and cheaper ways to do it.
Terrain mapping has the advantage of not being vulnerable to gps being spoofed.
Posted on 1/6/26 at 1:50 pm to Lee B
quote:
You forget about the boots on the ground needed to protect those oil companies, that's going to cost a lot as well... bases, independent contractors that service the bases, security for the independent contractors...
The Marathon Oil Company then part of Marathon Petroleum, operated a massive oilfield in Libya throughout Qaddafi's overthrow and afterward safely. ZERO US boots on the ground there. They did offer it to a friend of mine in (now deceased at the age of 90) in 2013 who refused to buy it due the chaotic environment. They had hired private security forces to patrol the perimeter and ZERO damage.
Venezuela's biggest problem is non payment for goods and services. I was offered natural gas pipeline compressors with 45,000 HP gas turbines each. They were repossessed from PDVSA before being installed. Now stored in the USA unused.
Posted on 1/6/26 at 3:05 pm to Lee B
quote:
For a lot of reasons, Oil Companies are not expressing excitement over building up infrastructure in Venezuela... the cost being one big reason, and the big giant elephant in the room being hostility and violence and terrorism being directed at them in an unstable country...
I think the biggest reason being do you really commit billions of capital on the promise of a lame duck US president.
If you think there will be a normal US election in 2028, you also think US policy toward Venezuela and its oil fields is likely to change dramatically in 24 months.
This is the problem of having a US government that lurches widely every 4-8 years with no respect or comity for the actions of the prior administration.
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