re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Their historical norm is centralized authority, militarization, repression, and buffer-seeking while examples of retreating from that (e.g under Gorbachev/Yeltsin) are unfortunately anomalies. The last time we had detente was under a condition of collapse and western democracy/capitalism looked like the only plausible alternative for them, which isn't the case anymore. Now China gives them a model and a patron.

So, for me, not helping Ukraine isn’t about certainty that Russia will expand next, but about bounding risk and not placing a bad bet on an unlikely transformation. Where the adminstration actually seems to be going though is to be adopting bit of Russia's "near-abroad" strategy ourselves and returning to multi-polar politics and letting them have their corner of the world (as they see it, Eastern Europe

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But if bounding risk in that sense drives them into China's arms even more, there is a chance we end up creating more risk than we otherwise would have long term.

And yes it does seem like we are headed for another multi-polar period. And in a future with drone tech, force projection via our Navy might become more dangerous than it is today. If we don't own the seas anymore, how emboldened do our global bad actors become? Of course everyone else would have to become extremely conservative with their ships too, presumably. Russia at least isn't much of a threat in that regard for a long while.

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If you just read Russian history, this is basically a new version of the Russian mindset ingrained for centuries now, it's hardwired. It really doesn't differ from the Arabic word Harb, meaning war. To Islam, war is everywhere not under Islamic rule. Meanwhile, peace is wherever Islam rules.

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I get that. And there are those that have compared this Russian sense of exceptionalism to the American Manifest Destiny, and, honestly, it's not completely unfair.

But while the idea of a national identity tied to national expansion may be a natural and universal one, I don't think that openly lying and a open bloodlust for power is. Call me naive, but I think it's possible to exist and not attempt to conquer your neighbors, and, yes, I'm well aware of Russia's history. Especially when you consider the ways in which Dugin advocates expansion - I sure as reject the US as the Russian scapegoat, which Dugin is adamant about, and not because we did something wrong but because by his way of thinking there just has to be a scapegoat. So I don't except this as some 'historical' inevitability or reasonable rationale.

That, and I don't see any chance at a mulit-polar world taking place. Whose going to be the other pole?

Russia? *snort*
China? Maybe we thought this five or ten years ago, but right now China is a demographic, economic, and political mess. Xi seems to be doing nothing but consolidating power, so whenever he goes it's going to be a bloodbath and a possible civil war.
The Europeans could do it, but they don't want to. They have the population, the economy, and the history but they're too fractured and have grown lazy under the American led system. Even with the Trump administration doing everything they can to push the Europeans away, they still can't manage. There's a gun to their head, for god's sake, and they still are paralyzed from political inaction, so they aren't leading anything.

So, I don't see any other pole organizing during my lifetime. Let me know anyone who might be/

The trend is that for the last several weeks Russian gains have slowed.

The trend is that the Russian economy declining faster.

What will come first? Ukraine suffering a deveststing defeat, or Russia’s economy collapsing?

Third time this facility has been hit since October. Location north of Chechnya.

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LINK

The Budanov Bingo Card.

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Journalist: - Do you have any hobbies?

Budanov: - Well, I cross-stitch.

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And here he is, (the real) Steve Rosenberg -

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Putin’s best hope now is his star team in DC: Trump, Gabbard and Witkoff.

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But the truth will out...

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Russian military expert Maksim Klimov:

"When the enemy naval kamikaze drone reached our submarine docked at the port of Novorossiysk, the information machine was activated, claiming that nothing happened, nothing was damaged, and everything is fine."

"However, even visual observation makes it clear that the submarine sustained heavy damage."

"Around there is nothing but lies, lies, and lies, so that those responsible for the failed operation can save their own skins."

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Russian attack on Ukraine leaves three oblasts almost completely without power

Andrii Muravskyi — 23 December, 10:49

Consumers in Ukraine's Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi oblasts have been almost completely cut off from power as a result of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine's power grid on the morning of 23 December.

Source: Ukraine's Ministry of Energy

Quote: "Over the course of the night and in the morning, Russia launched another large-scale attack on Ukraine's power grid, the ninth since the beginning of the year. As a result, consumers in Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi oblasts have been almost completely without electricity as of this morning."

Details: There are also outages caused by the attacks in Vinnytsia, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr oblasts and in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

Emergency repair work will begin as soon as the security situation allows.

The ministry added that in Odesa Oblast, efforts are ongoing to deal with the aftermath of several consecutive large-scale strikes on the region's energy infrastructure, and a significant number of consumers remain without power. The energy companies are doing everything possible to bring damaged equipment back into operation as quickly as they can.

Ukrainska Pravda