re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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The fundamental strategic choice [for Russia] is straightforward: double down. The evidence proves that the West's current strategy – arming Ukraine, imposing sanctions, hardening critical infrastructure – is fracturing Russia's military, economic and political cohesion

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Since retreating from Kyiv in April 2022, Russia has now failed in four of its five strategic objectives: political subjugation, economic sustainability, regime stability and international standing. Only in territorial control does it hold a pyrrhic advantage. But a declining power is often more dangerous than a rising one. Facing an economic spiral and depleted conventional forces, Vladimir Putin is entering a window of maximum danger. We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one: 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation. Escalation, which the UK’s Foreign Secretary boldly stated was already ‘flagrantly visible’.

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What Does Putin Want in 2026?

A Three-Pillar Offensive

The trap Putin has now created for himself is psychological: a regime that justified its authoritarian model by promising to restore Russian greatness cannot acknowledge strategic defeat without risking political collapse. Shaped by his KGB culture and witness to Soviet demise, any peace deal that can be perceived other than complete ‘victory’ – is no longer a policy option available to him. It would delegitimise the entire regime. Therefore, escalation becomes not a choice but a necessity.

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Russia must demonstrate to its domestic audience and to the West that it retains the initiative and remains a great power. Next year, it will manifest across three specific hybrid warfare pillars:

1. Sabotage will target Europe's expanding defence production infrastructure and Ukraine-bound supply chains. As continental ammunition factories ramp up and logistics networks become more visible, they become prime targets – like last year’s arms factory explosion in Cugir, Romania. Expect attacks designed to delay weapons deliveries, drive up security costs and force governments to divert resources from Ukraine support to domestic protection.

2. Subversion, especially information warfare as seen in Moldova – will intensify dramatically during key European elections including Hungary, in early 2026 and the US Mid-Terms. Pro-Russian populist parties already top polls across major European capitals. Every percentage point and every political message amplified to their advantage offers Russia hope of weakening sanctions and Western political resolve.

3. Coercion through conventional military demonstrations will escalate from sporadic to systematic. Expect increasingly aggressive airspace and naval violations – like this year’s 12 minute ‘reckless’ Gulf of Finland incident. Plus, nuclear rhetoric calibrated to create psychological pressure. The intended message: supporting Ukraine risks direct escalation with Russia, so perhaps restraint is wiser.

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Three Constraints [on Russia] Forcing a 2026 Hybrid Escalation

1. An Unsustainable Wartime Economy - While Russia’s true fiscal state remains classified, it is undoubtedly bleak. Interest rates top 16%. The IMF recently cut its forecast to just 0.6% growth, with confidential central banks reports warning of 1990s inflation and impending 1980s style collapses in oil prices.

2. Structural: Conventional Military Options Are Exhausting - The Kremlin's conventional weakness is forcing greater reliance on hybrid tactics as a substitute for military capability it no longer possesses.

3. Europe has not implemented hybrid deterrence - yet. - Europe has been slow to build credible hybrid deterrence – a capability it is only now recognising and wanting to address. NATO is finally moving – with its top commander and Secretary General outlining shifts in policy – here too Putin’s window for action is closing.

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Europe's Strategic Choice for 2026

The fundamental strategic choice is straightforward: [also] double down. The evidence proves that the West's current strategy – arming Ukraine, imposing sanctions, hardening critical infrastructure – is fracturing Russia's military, economic and political cohesion. Even if painfully slow, and with Ukraine bearing a terrible human cost.

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Doubling down means more than maintaining current support for Ukraine. Europe must follow its recent announcement to establish credible deterrence against hybrid warfare or watch Putin attempt to fracture Western unity through a thousand cuts. The current approach – treating each incident as isolated – is creating a vacuum Moscow, not only can exploit – but must exploit.

Putin is betting Europe lacks the resolve to impose meaningful costs below the Article 5 threshold. The evidence suggests he is right: no Russian officials have faced consequences for any of the mysterious arms factory explosions, the Baltic cable severances or the parcel bomb campaign. But proving him wrong doesn't require matching Russia's conventional strength – it requires clarity about what the West won't tolerate. 2026 will reveal whether Europe has learned this lesson, or whether Putin's collapsing window will succeed in breaking what his military invasion could not.

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Putin can’t take the entire Donbas in 4 years but he’s going to take the Baltics in a year or two? I just don’t buy it. People that are pro Russia like to say they don’t use their best equipment and troops in Ukraine but that’s bullshite. Russia under heavy sanctions and their lifeblood of their economy being bombed nightly by Ukraine. Putin would get his arse kicked in short order, especially once Poland acts. Then if NATO responds like it is supposed to in an instance like this then Russia can just about be beaten by combined air power alone. If something like this happens it means WWIII.

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Something we've seen no evidence of, at least that I'm aware of, is Russia's military adapting to the war and fixing its systemic issues. At the end of WW2, the Russian military command was vastly superior in terms of quality to the command when Germany launched Barbarossa. We've seen lots of brutality and disregard for the lives of their soldiers. Has anyone seen any evidence of improvement in the Russian Army's command and control during this war?

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LINK

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However, I do think there is a realistic possibility that Putin will eventually test NATO Article 5 to try and determine if western Europe and the US will defend the Baltics.

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