Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll released on Tuesday

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Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll released on Tuesday, taking a lead of 47.2 percent to 46.7 percent in the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle.

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“Our latest Quantus Insights survey finds Paxton ahead by half a point, as Republican strength among older and rural voters meets a Democratic advantage among independents,” a summary of the results reads.

The polling company says Paxton’s narrow lead is owed to what Breitbart News reported in August — Talarico already maxed out support among Democrats in the state. Tuesday’s poll results do show an advantage among independent voters for Talarico, a 15-point edge of 52 percent to 37 percent. Yet Paxton’s slow growth among Republican voters who dominate the state continues to put him in position to claim the seat.

Paxton has the support of 87 percent of GOP voters, up from his low-80s number following the primary and runoff with outgoing Sen. John Cornyn, which saw over $130 million spent against the Attorney General.

Paxton leads among the state’s most reliable voter bloc: those aged 65 and older with 56 percent to 39 percent for Talarico. He also leads those aged 45–64 by 49 percent to 45 percent. Talarico leads the two younger age groups, including 62 percent to 29 percent among voters under 30. Younger voters are Talarico’s strongest age constituency; but typically they are also least likely to vote in midterms.

Another edge for Paxton over Talarico is his “perceived fit” with Texas voters. The survey finds 48.6 percent believing Paxton is in line with voters, while Talarico is perceived in line by 45.5 percent. The biggest difference is a great number believe Talarico is not in line with Texas: 48.3 percent.

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