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Message
re: JBE says he is at 57% in internal polling
Posted on 8/15/19 at 3:58 pm to t00f
Posted on 8/15/19 at 3:58 pm to t00f
quote:
Ralph Abraham is a great candidate. He will win and do a fantastic job.
quote:
+1
+2.
Doc is legit. Edwards can't lay a glove on him or he wouldn't be trying to use the debunked salary story against him.
0
Posted on 8/15/19 at 3:59 pm to dpd901
quote:
Rispone is a cartoon character. Bel Edwards is gonna win in a walk
You have no idea what you are talking about! Bel is history Jack
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:03 pm to dpd901
Shsssh don't say that too loud here,this place is an extreme echo chamber. I'm hearing from legislators (St. Tammany Republicans) that they don't really expect a run off. JBE is not as despised in reality as he is on this board. They really don't like the Rispone add and they are less than thrilled with Doc, mainly because they don't know him so they can't find a lot of enthusiasm.
I expect Sentrius to mount an affirmative defense of Abraham on these boards.
I expect Sentrius to mount an affirmative defense of Abraham on these boards.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:07 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Like I've stated before, Rispone's ads actually make me not want to vote for him.
quote:
Are you really voting against a message that goes like this...
"I want to do for Louisiana what Donald Trump has done for America"
What's wrong with that message if you're a conservative voter that also voted for Trump?
Well said, Sentrius. I could critique Rispone and his ads, but this board's dislike of him and the message is very, very confusing.
Thank you for not being a sheep... "yea, I agree with all you guys... that other guy sucks"
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:07 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
JBE is not as despised in reality as he is on this board.
JBE was pretty well liked on this board back in November 2015 and there were more upvotes than downvotes for him in that timeframe, especially from "conservatives" that I would never guessed would fall for such advertising.
If he was getting that kind of reception on a conservative board like this, I knew Vitter was in trouble.
That support is gone now in 2019.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:08 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
That sounds...doubtful.
No poll I have seen has anything close to that. I haven't seen him above 50% and that was before the Republicans started to spend money.
Now I actually think he will ultimately win. But I think it will be close and there are too many undecideds at this point for him to be at 50%+ much less 57% (without some statistical "massaging).
No poll I have seen has anything close to that. I haven't seen him above 50% and that was before the Republicans started to spend money.
Now I actually think he will ultimately win. But I think it will be close and there are too many undecideds at this point for him to be at 50%+ much less 57% (without some statistical "massaging).
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:10 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Edwards also said he had no plan to raise taxes.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:12 pm to doubleb
Edwards also got a lot of votes from Republican teachers. Not gonna get them this time.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:14 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
JBE attracts a lot of socially conservative people because of his anti-abortion and pro-gun rights stances. He’ll probably win re-election.
This post was edited on 8/15/19 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:17 pm to NikolaiJakov
quote:
Edwards also got a lot of votes from Republican teachers. Not gonna get them this time.
Didn't he just sign a bill granting teacher pay raises for the first time in years?
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:19 pm to BigJim
I don’t think he’ll be over 50% in the primary. My guess is that he’ll be at 40-45%, but will get enough crossover votes in the general election to win.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:22 pm to Fairbanks
quote:
JBE attracts a lot of socially conservative people because he’s probably even more anti-abortion and pro-gun rights than most Republicans are.
JBE has done only enough of the bare minimum on abortion to maintain political cover and I can promise you that the pro-life crowd who actually follow the issue closely are not impressed with him.
Pro-Gun? I can't remember him doing anything significant for second amendment rights in the last few years.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:23 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Didn't he just sign a bill granting teacher pay raises for the first time in years?
It wasn’t a substantial raise and the truth is most parish school boards have been giving out raises themselves.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:26 pm to Sentrius
quote:
JBE has done only enough of the bare minimum on abortion to maintain political cover and I can promise you that the pro-life crowd who actually follow the issue closely are not impressed with him.
Pro-Gun? I can't remember him doing anything significant for second amendment rights in the last few years.
In other words, he hasn't rocked the boat on either front. Which means he's likely not losing a single vote he got in 2015 because of either issue.
I want to share your optimism about him being voted out. I really do.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:30 pm to Sentrius
quote:
JBE hasn't gotten past 50% in public approval rating polls in well over a year as he's at 45-47% right now in the morning consult polls and JBE is telling us he's going to magically pick up another 10-12 percent in less than two months against republican candidates that are not as weak as Vitter?
If Abraham doesn't go on a mini blitz to define himself and some detail other than the standard Republican boilerplate, JBE will be handed the election and it will be over early.
I have worked in someway in every gubernatorial election since Edwards/Treen in 1983 and I'm not seeing much enthusiasm in this election...reminds me of Foster's re-election
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:32 pm to Sentrius
JBE always tries to portray himself as pro-gun rights. Although he may not have have really done much to protect gun rights, it’s not like he’s done anything to suppress gun rights either.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:34 pm to KiwiHead
I believe you are right about that.
Unless someone catches fire, I see a low turnout and JBE winning.
National news is dominating right now, and if that continues state politics will be ho hum.
Unless someone catches fire, I see a low turnout and JBE winning.
National news is dominating right now, and if that continues state politics will be ho hum.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:35 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
I want to share your optimism about him being voted out. I really do.
Pushing the aura of inevitability and invincibility is what political candidates, especially incumbents do all the time and they would be doing themselves a disservice if they didn't do that.
Big examples of success and failure are Hillary Clinton, David Vitter, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Joe Biden right now.
It could well work for JBE and help him win reelection in getting enough crossover votes after he trashes both GOP candidates enough as less than impressive.
It may not work for him if he's forced to run on his record and he has to contend with a united conservative base in the runoff and President Trump coming to town for a rally against him.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
JBE may well win, he may well win in the primary, but his ceiling is 51-52%.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:41 pm to Fairbanks
quote:
JBE always tries to portray himself as pro-gun rights. Although he may not have have really done much to protect gun rights, it’s not like he’s done anything to suppress gun rights either.
Now JBE did release a bunch of felons from prison, and if one of those felons commits a heinous crime; JBE would be vulnerable.
I think that’s why he was running the sheriff commercial. To preempt something like that.
This post was edited on 8/15/19 at 4:51 pm
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