re: James Lindsay Opinion Piece on the Iran Deal

If the shipping rates return to 2025 levels once its open, then that shows we did not have full control.

Supe's position is that the SOH isn't important anymore and other transportation avenues were created, which means the shipping rates through the SOH won't return.

If shipping rates DO return once the SOH is opened, then it shows we could not stop Iran from "closing" the SOH

We should know in 45-60 days

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We controlled the strait bro.

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Then why couldn't we get shipping rates through the SOH back to 2025 levels?

If we controlled the SOH, that shouldn't have been a problem

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Then why couldn't we get shipping rates through the SOH back to 2025 levels?

If we controlled the SOH, that shouldn't have been a problem

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you keep saying this and I think there is a fundamental disconnect to what we are saying in regards to control of SOH

you are looking at control of functionality, we are saying the USN took control and closed off functionality completely

in April after the second negotiations in pakistan fell apart the mission changed from allowing Iran to decide who, what, when would be allowed to pass SOH to a full US naval blockade of everyone and everything to:

take away Iran’s leverage in the SOH and in the peace talks

choke off Iran’s only real economic lifeline to ship oil

force them to drown in oil and start shutting in their production

create even more intense pressure on Iran by the GCC countries

allow the global trade to finally break the dependence on the SOH by forcing adaptation of alternative means and locations for shipping

create more demand for western hemisphere crude (US, Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil)

on may 7 the Iranians frustration caused them to show their hand on where everything is, the underground bases for fast attack boats, the popup missile batteries, the deeper underground missile city that overlooked SOH and the US mapped and destroyed all of it

the next step was the Islands - if we seized Kharg or destroyed it then they had no hope for recovery

so we carrot and stick negotiated them into where we are today.

who ever it is in the regime we are talking to that is presenting themselves as the power has to show wins to their own people to gain control and stability.

part of that has to be a path to recovery, otherwise it is hopeless and the pain inflicted on the civilians would be immense

one last thing, the Iranian Oil industry was 2.3 mmb/d when everything was normal, there will be a big influx on the market when they dump their stores but then there will be a massive lull. They use 2 mmb/d in their own consumption.

so they will soon be buying oil in the open market just like everyone else to meet internal demand but they have no credit, little cash and no friends

The Iranian energy facilities are messed up, pipelines destroyed, refineries destroyed, production shut in that may never come back and the longer this thing dragged out the more difficult it would be to recover.

now with this MOU the carrot and stick is extended to the GCC to use on Iran as well. $300 billion in investment potential carrot to start if they behave, they get the stick again if they dont behave

we will see how it all plays out

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The IRGC is white-knuckling power, hanging on for dear life in a shattered system that needs relief. The relief is coming from a place that can put massive contingencies on access to the relief, at least in theory. That's like being wrapped in the snake's coils.

Iran's Regime is boxed into needing the relief, but the relief comes at the cost of becoming controlled not just by the U.S. and Israel but by the GCC coalition from which the money is supposed to come.

Every time they betray the deal, which is apparently all based on investment money, not state transfers, the U.S. and/or Israel might hit them again to get them back in line while the GCC tightens the financial noose (with U.S. urging).

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No Doubt About It. Outstanding Take!!