It Looks Like House Democrats Are Worried About The 2022 Midterms

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House retirements are one metric we’re watching to give us a clue as to how the 2022 midterms will unfold, but on the surface at least, it doesn’t look like either party has an advantage in this regard: 10 Democrats are retiring compared with nine Republicans. However, when you dig into the specific reasons that are likely behind each retirement, it does look like Democrats are more worried than Republicans.

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But considering they also had other factors playing into their retirements, one can argue at this point that no Republicans are retiring primarily out of fear of losing their general election next year.

Retiring Democrats, however, appear to be more motivated by electoral concerns. Only five of the 10 retiring Democrats are running for another office, while four currently represent swing seats: Reps. Filemon Vela, Ann Kirkpatrick, Cheri Bustos and Ron Kind. And only Vela’s seat is likely to be made safely Democratic in redistricting, although he didn’t know that when he announced he was retiring. It’s reasonable, therefore, to theorize that fear of losing reelection was a key factor in their decisions to retire.

The 10th retiring Democrat is Yarmuth, who currently represents a safely blue seat anchored by Louisville, Kentucky. But he may be retiring out of fear of losing reelection, too. That’s because Republicans, who control the redistricting process in Kentucky, could eliminate his seat by giving slices of his dark-blue 3rd District to neighboring red districts that can absorb more Democratic voters without becoming competitive — a gerrymandering technique known as “cracking.”

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