Is there a voting cohort in which Trump will perform worse than in 2016?

I don’t think he does better with blacks because I expect turnout to be higher

White women.

He lost woman in total 54-41 to Clinton.

He could very well lost by 15-20 this time. The Hispanic and AA can offset that in states like AZ and FL. But lily white Wisconsin and Michigan will be hard

Democrats with tds that didn’t vote in 2016

White people older than 65.

White voters younger than 30.

Suburban voters in places like AZ, PA, and NC.

Trump got over 90% of the votes of white evangelicals in 2016. He will get less than that in 2020.

If turnout is much greater, Trump can perform better but still lose ground due to raw numbers

quote:

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Women are deathly concerned about how they are perceived socially and are easy to bully. The social pressure and non-stop propaganda from their favorite tv shows and celebrities is very effective against them.

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Poor white women have suffraged enough.

END WOMEN’S SUFFRAGE!!!!!

Supposedly seniors he's lost about 12 points to Biden versus in 2016 versus Hillary, but with Covid and the stock market improving that should be improving from now until the election (not to mention his energy versus Biden's)

He's also supposedly down with the Catholic voters versus 2016 and maybe they're hoping Coney Barrett nom will shore that up as well.

Also - huge caveat that these numbers (him "down" with seniors and Catholics) is mostly reliant on the national D+9 to D+12 skewed polls that also show him trailing Biden by anywhere from 9-13 percent. So take all of this with a bigly grain of salt.

Most of us feel that he's basically only trailing Biden by a couple of points, which would then put him close to par with both Seniors and Catholics compared to 2016. It might be skewed liberal polling that is causing these nubmers.

Add one to that number.

I know 5 suburban AZ voters who will be voting Trump this cycle that didn’t in last. 3 are white women. An additional 2 white women that voted for Clinton are not voting for Biden this cycle. Unsure who / if they will vote. Just my personal observation.

I’m a member of several “Women for Trump” groups.
There’s far more energy and excitement for Trump amongst the female electorate this election than in 2016–at least in terms of rallying for the cause.

I could post hundreds of photos that would make you feel good about our President’s support from women—of all ages and ethnicities.