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Started By
Message
re: Iran offers U.S. deal to reopen strait but postpone nuclear talks
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:32 pm to teke184
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:32 pm to teke184
With three CVNs in place and the storage wall looming in roughly five days, the "silent treatment" combined with infrastructure strikes, especially on communication hubs used by the IRGC, puts the IRGC in a box they cannot escape. With no direct broadcast to the IRGC regarding capitulation, this means the US is letting the reality of the situation do the talking. When the lights go out and the radios go silent, the message is clear: the IRGC's time is up.
It Will Be GLORIOUS!!
It Will Be GLORIOUS!!
0
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:32 pm to Timeoday
quote:Couldn't they just pump it into the desert and then recover it later?
With the May 1st "storage wall" fast approaching, Iran is running out of time. If they are forced to shut in their wells, the economic death spiral becomes permanent.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:36 pm to BigPerm30
quote:
They don’t have anywhere to put their oil. If they shut the wells down they frick them up for months.
shite, it will be years to undo that damage. A lot of stuff will have to fixed to get those wells going again.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:36 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
frick em
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:39 pm to HubbaBubba
That would be an ecological disaster and provide no benefit whatsoever to the IRGC. Mass defections would certainly occur if that move were made.
What is becoming very clear is the Trump Doctrine will soon be realized.
For the administration, this would be the ultimate "I told you so." By ignoring the media’s warnings of a "Third World War" and sticking to a strategy of uncompromising leverage, they would have achieved what decades of diplomacy couldn't: the permanent removal of the IRGC as a regional power.
As the smoke clears from the targeted infrastructure strikes and the mass defections begin, the lack of a "negotiated deal" means there are no strings attached. The IRGC doesn't get to "pivot"; they simply cease to exist as a functional military.
In this scenario, the silence of the US radios—the refusal to offer a broadcast or a deal—becomes the final word on the matter. The result speaks for itself.
I laugh out loud when I hear them say, "We will not negotiate under pressure'!!
What is becoming very clear is the Trump Doctrine will soon be realized.
For the administration, this would be the ultimate "I told you so." By ignoring the media’s warnings of a "Third World War" and sticking to a strategy of uncompromising leverage, they would have achieved what decades of diplomacy couldn't: the permanent removal of the IRGC as a regional power.
As the smoke clears from the targeted infrastructure strikes and the mass defections begin, the lack of a "negotiated deal" means there are no strings attached. The IRGC doesn't get to "pivot"; they simply cease to exist as a functional military.
In this scenario, the silence of the US radios—the refusal to offer a broadcast or a deal—becomes the final word on the matter. The result speaks for itself.
I laugh out loud when I hear them say, "We will not negotiate under pressure'!!
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:49 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
The obvious question one must ask here is why they are willing to give up their control in one aspect vs. control of the other. Hormuz has been their biggest bargaining chip in this conflict and their best lever to pull as far as putting pressure on the US and World in return for the damage done to them.
Why would they be so willing to give that up?
The obvious answer is that they believe they can attain a nuke before those "next rounds" of negotiations. Whether through development or purchased by them, that's the only way they say "we're willing to give up our current biggest leverage for something unsure in the future." They believe they can have nuclear weapons within weeks/months
Posted on 4/26/26 at 10:15 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
No need to give up on this wildly successful operation until we get the security guarantees that we want.
There is no rush to open the strait. It should not even be a secondary consideration.
There is no rush to open the strait. It should not even be a secondary consideration.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 10:23 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
As if anyone would fall for this BS offer.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:18 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
Thats gonna be a big negative.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 6:42 am to Timeoday
They are about to have to shut down oil production......that is massive.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 6:52 am to Timeoday
quote:
That would be an ecological disaster and provide no benefit whatsoever to the IRGC.
I disagree. He made a good point, and it’s one I’ve been thinking about for a week or so. In the early days of oil production that’s exactly what was done. They’d build a moat and use natural landforms to create a lake and pump it out of there until they could contain it all in steel.
The benefit it would provide the IRGC is it would avoid the catastrophic damage to their downhole formations that would be caused by shutins.
It would not help them cling to power in the short term, though, because they’d still be without cash flow.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 6:55 am to RazorBroncs
quote:
Why would they be so willing to give that up?
The obvious answer is that they believe they can attain a nuke before those "next rounds" of negotiations.
I don’t think that is the reason. In fact, I’m almost sure they are set back quite a bit on that.
I think the reason is that if Trump agreed he would lose all leverage, and Iran could start developing nukes again. They could negotiate by not accepting any of our terms, and the only leverage we would have is to go back to war.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 7:14 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
Just say “we’ll think about it” until the oil wells are imploded.
Their problem
Their problem
Posted on 4/27/26 at 7:18 am to LSUnation78
Iran’s proposal:
Posted on 4/27/26 at 8:03 am to Penrod
Posted on 4/27/26 at 8:15 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
That's a Hell No!
Posted on 4/27/26 at 8:15 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
NOPE!
Posted on 4/27/26 at 8:32 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
They still think this is a negotiation. We do not seek compromise, we seek capitulation
Posted on 4/27/26 at 8:34 am to BigPerm30
quote:
The blockade is the leverage. They don’t have anywhere to put their oil. If they shut the wells down they frick them up for months.
It also shuts down 90% of their trade, oil and otherwise. Their economy is crashing
Bombs and boots on the ground are not necessary. The bombing was to eliminate leadership and destroy all their military capabilities so we could do this. We can keep the blockade going as long we want until they fold
Posted on 4/27/26 at 8:44 am to Timeoday
I’m not sure what your point is. The wells would be “screwed” because shutting them in would cause geological failures that would be very expensive to fix.
Flowing them into a desert lake would prevent that.
Flowing them into a desert lake would prevent that.
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