re: In Arizona 2016 Johnson got 4%

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Gary had a lot more Libertarian momentum four years ago than Jo does this time around.

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Jo essentially ruined the libertarian party when she stated that we MUST be actively anti-racist.

We “must” do nothing...and Jo can go frick right off.

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I still feel like the Latin/Hispanic votes for Trump are hidden there. He doesn't seem to be growing that base there at all and I just find it odd.

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From the Hispanics to the blue collar dems I think there are a lot more dems that will break for Trump than GOP voters with "feelings" issues that break towards Biden.

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ep, third party candidates in general were getting way more buzz in 2016 because both major candidates were considered "unlikeable"

There has been 0 buzz about them this time, no debates, no discussion, they effectively don't exist this time around.

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Johnson got the highest % of votes for a third party since Perot in 92 and 96.

In WI he got 106k votes (3.6%)
In MN he got 112k votes (3.9%)
In MI he got 173k votes (3.6%)
In PA he got 142k votes (2.4%)
In NC he got 127k votes (2.8)
In NV he got 37k votes (3.3%)
In NH he got 31k votes (4.2%)


Trump LOST MN by appx. 44k votes
Trump WON WI by appx. 27k votes
Trump WON MI by appx. 11k votes
Trump LOST NV by appx. 26K votes
Trump LOST NH by appx. 3k votes

As you said, it is hard to see a third party getting as many votes this time as Johnson did in 2016. And with margins being so close, swings in one direction or the other from those voters could make a big difference. For example, even if just 50% of the 2016 third party voters in Michigan "pick a side" this time, that's 86k votes in a state where the margin of victory was 11k.

Clearly those people WANT to vote. Why else would you waste time to show up to vote for a candidate you know isn't going to come close to winning? Thus, you have to imagine they will show up again. The question is which way do they swing?

Libertarians (which Johnson was) tend to be more right-leaning fiscally and largely ambivalent (or left-leaning) socially. However, more than anything, they don't particularly like gross government intervention. Covid has DOMINATED 2020. More specifically, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION has dominated 2020. Virtually all enjoyable aspects of life have to some degree or another been curtailed by governors, mayors, etc. Conventional wisdom would suggest such intervention is the antithesis of traditional libertarian values. So, does that mean they swing more towards the party that has (to some degree) resisted the mass government intervention?

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I still feel like the Latin/Hispanic votes for Trump are hidden there. He doesn't seem to be growing that base there at all and I just find it odd.

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Anecdotal of course but my neighbors are Hispanic and have a Trump sign in their yard. We live in deep blue Tallahassee. Trump's not losing Florida with how the GOP has closed the registration gap and how he's polling better polling with Cubans this time around.

I said seemed. His answers during his one town hall I watched again seemed very intelligent and well informed. I never got that impression about Johnson.

I voted Johnson 2012 and 2016 but voting Trump this time because the economy and not starting any new wars.

I would vote Libertarian but Jo Jorgensen is such a weak candidate. I would of much preferred Justin Amash to run... the first Libertarian congressman.

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Libertarians (which Johnson was) tend to be more right-leaning fiscally and largely ambivalent (or left-leaning) socially. However, more than anything, they don't particularly like gross government intervention. Covid has DOMINATED 2020. More specifically, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION has dominated 2020. Virtually all enjoyable aspects of life have to some degree or another been curtailed by governors, mayors, etc. Conventional wisdom would suggest such intervention is the antithesis of traditional libertarian values. So, does that mean they swing more towards the party that has (to some degree) resisted the mass government intervention?

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If Trump wins, any honest postmortem will have to account for the Covid rules that pissed off enough Libertarians and conservatives who were too reluctant in 2016 enough to vote for Trump. This board is an echo chamber so I have to check my confidence, but reading this:

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In WI he got 106k votes (3.6%) In MN he got 112k votes (3.9%) In MI he got 173k votes (3.6%) In PA he got 142k votes (2.4%) In NC he got 127k votes (2.8) In NV he got 37k votes (3.3%) In NH he got 31k votes (4.2%) Trump LOST MN by appx. 44k votes Trump WON WI by appx. 27k votes Trump WON MI by appx. 11k votes Trump LOST NV by appx. 26K votes Trump LOST NH by appx. 3k votes

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has me thinking landslide is in play.

The lack of understanding of libertarianism is amazing.

But at the same time there are folks in here who call themselves conservatives and are voting form Trump.

So I get it

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The lack of understanding of libertarianism is amazing.

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Jorgenson threw in the trash the notion that the Libertarian party stands for libertarian principles with her asinine tweet about anti-racism.

The libertarian party doesn’t even know what libertarianism is.

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A huge chunk of those Johnson voters might not vote at all this time, but the ones that do actually vote will vote for Trump over Biden.

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I would not assume this.

We know a large percentage of these votes are LINOs who exclusively vote for the highest name recognition candidate that is supporting legalization, something Harris/Biden have at least talked about and claim to support in non-measurable terms.

Another chunk of LINOs are of the accelerationist/gonna get mine group who would gladly chase student loan forgiveness to pay off that Poli Sci degree they're putting to good use.

Harris/Biden have done a good job of avoiding any talk about anything, but especially about foreign policy, so they haven't drawn a clear line between themselves and Trump on anti-interventionism yet. There was a very clear reason for what remained of the anti-war vote to side with Trump over Hillary, as she made Syria a centerpiece of her failed campaign.