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Started By
Message
re: In April FHA paid 203,000 missed mortgage payments for 34,400 borrowers for $314,000,000
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:21 am to stout
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:21 am to stout
Stout you play in this market more directly than I do, do you see this as a buying opportunity when these properties hit the market or is it a situation where there is still too much air that needs to be let out of the balloon from a pricing standpoint for them to make sense from a buy and hold perspective currently?
1
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:24 am to stout
There's stout still chasing MUH 2008
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:25 am to stout
Trump should cut these off
lenders will give someone a 350k dsld for filling out a sheet of paper and flashing an ebt card but if you try to get them to go in with you on a shitty rent house they shine a flashlight up your arse
lenders will give someone a 350k dsld for filling out a sheet of paper and flashing an ebt card but if you try to get them to go in with you on a shitty rent house they shine a flashlight up your arse
This post was edited on 5/10/25 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:26 am to 4cubbies
quote:you’re so mistreated.
I’m totally fine with you calling me names for not being able to locate this information.
These misogynistic cis racist don’t deserved you. Maybe go to Bluesky where you’ll be appreciated
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:27 am to Lightning
quote:
Housing market could never correct from the rapid price increases since 2020 when you had the fed gov quietly propping up nonpayers. This is a boil that needed to be lanced a long time ago.
As someone who's been trying to move for years this explains a lot of the delay in the housing market correction I've been waiting for.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:28 am to 4cubbies
quote:
I’ve google lots of variates of MBS and FHA MBS data and can’t find it.
Its GNMA MBS Data. There is a lot to it and the person in the OP runs code to extract and organize the exact data he is referencing. Good luck breaking it down like he does.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:29 am to stout
We’re supposed to implicitly trust this guy. Gotcha.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:32 am to stout
quote:Anecdotely, my wife and I rehabbed my brother's house in 2021 when he bought a bigger house out on the lake. Seems like every time we took something out, it needed replacing. So the buyer essentially got all new appliances in a 40 year old house. New roof, new paint in and out and new flooring in addition to appliances. We listed the house on a Friday and had 6 contracts by Sunday and sold the house to the better offer (not best because that one probably would not have qualified) but sold it for $10,000 over the asking price. Hot, hot market in Fall of 2021.
592000 borrowers were assisted even long after CV was over. You are correct that this absolutely added fuel to the fire and made prices skyrocket.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:33 am to tide06
quote:
Stout you play in this market more directly than I do
Not really. I am only looking to add more rentals but my wife and I decided a few weeks ago to get out of SFH rentals and look more toward MFH so its easier to maintain as we get older and want to travel more. I am about to build a small trailer park of about 5 trailers and a washeteria as my first consolidation effort.
quote:
when these properties hit the market or is it a situation where there is still too much air that needs to be let out of the balloon from a pricing standpoint for them to make sense from a buy and hold perspective currently?
I think there are still too many speculators in the form of flippers, AirBNB, and those "we buy your house" middle men who never take possession and do double closings. Speculation drove the massive price increases more than real buyers IMO and there needs to be a lot of pain to wipe those guys out to take the air out. We aren't there yet but keeping rates high helps make money harder to borrow for speculators.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:36 am to TigersHuskers
quote:
There's stout still chasing MUH 2008
I’ve made it clear multiple times that 2008 was unique and won’t be repeated. However, it’s naive to ignore the possibility of a correction after the rapid rise since 2020 and many markets are already experiencing a pullback.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:43 am to el Gaucho
quote:
Trump should cut these off and let all the lenders go out of business solely
Sad to say, he can’t….. the subsequent impact would be absolutely massive to the US financial system on a global basis.
BTW, this isn’t even their biggest problem. Shadow banking lending now exceeds bank equity:
quote:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has recently published a study examining both on-balance and off-balance sheet exposures of the 31 largest banks that participated in the Fed’s 2024 stress test.
According to the study, as of the third quarter of 2023, loan commitments to shadow bankers by these largest banks totaled $2.2T, accounting for 32% of their total loan commitments. By comparison, the total equity of the sector—which includes not only these 31 banks but also the broader banking system—was also $2.2T. As such, as of Q3 2023, the total equity of the banks participating in the 2024 stress test was already lower than their loans to shadow bankers.
Given that on-balance sheet loans to shadow bankers have increased by nearly 20% since Q3 2023, and assuming off-balance sheet loan commitments have grown at the same rate, total loan commitments to shadow bankers from the largest banks are now even higher. This makes shadow banking lending one of the largest segments—and, for some, already the largest—of these banks' credit books.
Notably, last week, the Fed released hypothetical scenarios for its 2025 stress test. The regulator announced that the 2025 exploratory analysis will examine the risks posed to banks by nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), which is the formal term for shadow bankers.
The Fed mentioned that credit commitments to shadow bankers reached approximately $2.1T in the third quarter of 2024 at large banks. While this estimate is lower than the one provided by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, it is still highly significant.
This post was edited on 5/10/25 at 9:44 am
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:44 am to 4cubbies
quote:
We’re supposed to implicitly trust this guy.
I am sorry you fail to grasp that he is sharing data that is Congressionally mandated and all he is doing is breaking it down from massive reports. You can go download the PDFs yourself and do the same.
Here are some other sources you can track to keep up with market trends
HUD Single-Family Portfolio Snapshot
MBA Weekly Survey
ICE Mortgage Performance Report
Inside Mortgage Finance reports on MBS issuance trends
HUD Mortgagee Letter 2024-02: COVID-19 Advance Loan Modification
GNMA April 2025 Global Markets Analysis Report
GNMA Monthly Issuance Reports
CoreLogic also has a lot of reports but you have to pay for them.
Have fun digging
This post was edited on 5/10/25 at 9:46 am
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:44 am to stout
I am wondering how many of these FHA loans the gov has been propping up are actually being used as rentals. They are supposed to be owner occupied but obviously the oversight on these has been limited to nil.
Imagine getting an FHA loan to buy a house, never paying the mortgage but collecting rent on it for 5 years while you live somewhere else.
Imagine getting an FHA loan to buy a house, never paying the mortgage but collecting rent on it for 5 years while you live somewhere else.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:47 am to cadillacattack
quote:
Sad to say, he can’t….. the subsequent impact would be absolutely massive to the US financial system on a global basis.
Who gives a shite? A collapse would be better than what we have now
Imagine all the soys and food stampers starving in the first couple weeks and then the real Americans getting to hunt or farm every day instead of picking taxes at the email jail
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:47 am to Lightning
quote:
I am wondering how many of these FHA loans the gov has been propping up are actually being used as rentals.
The head of FHFA has already admitted it is a problem at Fannie and Freddie they are investigating. He has no control over FHA as that is under HUD but if it was a problem at Fannie and Freddie, you can bet its an issue at FHA too.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:49 am to stout
quote:
I am sorry you fail to grasp that he is sharing data that is Congressionally mandated and all he is doing i
I’m sorry you fail to grasp that admitting over and over that you don’t cross check any of his data because it’s too hard to do is problematic.
And then to have such an attitude about this - I don’t get it. Why be so bitchy yet smug all at once? What does that do for you? Clearly it just puts you in a bitchier mood.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:51 am to 4cubbies
quote:well you trust a person that’s born with a dick when he says he’s a woman, so your level of trust has nothing to do with actual data
We’re supposed to implicitly trust this guy. Gotcha.
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:53 am to SuperSaint
What are you talking about?
Oh look, another smug bitch stopping by to offer more bullshite.
Oh look, another smug bitch stopping by to offer more bullshite.
This post was edited on 5/10/25 at 9:55 am
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:55 am to 4cubbies
quote:
this - I don’t get it. Why be so bitchy yet smug all at once?
I could ask the same thing regarding your reflexive dismissal of data that isn’t partisan and definitely within the realm of possibility after what happened in 2008.
Are you a shill for the banking industry?
Posted on 5/10/25 at 9:57 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
your reflexive dismissal of data that isn’t partisan
I check the sources of all “data” posted here.
quote:
Are you a shill for the banking industry?
I’m just someone who likes to interpret raw data for myself.
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