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Message
IMHE Covid-19 Death Projection Revised Down Again
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:15 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:15 am
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Remember, all of these prior projections of hundreds of thousands of deaths were still based incorporating strict social distancing. Just mentally preparing you for when they inevitably gaslight you trying to say that Strict Social Distancing and Government Intervention are what saved us.
8
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:18 am to RebelExpress38
This is like election polling.
When you get down to the end of the campaign you start to have your polls better reflect reality so you don't look like a complete clown.
This is similar. The number will keep going down.
When you get down to the end of the campaign you start to have your polls better reflect reality so you don't look like a complete clown.
This is similar. The number will keep going down.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:20 am to RebelExpress38
Per CDC:
So we would be on par with the 2017/18 flu season.
quote:
The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths
So we would be on par with the 2017/18 flu season.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:21 am to RebelExpress38
Social distancing had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths. It was to flatten the curve, lengthen the time during which we experienced this....but they will all lie about that now
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:22 am to BayouCowboy
quote:
So we would be on par with the 2017/18 flu season.
Only concerning the death statistic which is easy to record.
45 million covid-19 illnesses will never be recorded due to it either not being as widespread, asymptomatic, or lack of testing.
So we will never really know how it stacks up to the Flu.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:23 am to RebelExpress38
quote:So maybe, just maybe, the social distancing and quarantine have worked better than projected?
Remember, all of these prior projections of hundreds of thousands of deaths were still based incorporating strict social distancing. Just mentally preparing you for when they inevitably gaslight you trying to say that Strict Social Distancing and Government Intervention are what saved us.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:24 am to mylsuhat
quote:
So maybe, just maybe, the social distancing and quarantine have worked better than projected?
quote:
Social distancing had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths. It was to flatten the curve, lengthen the time during which we experienced this....but they will all lie about that now
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:25 am to RebelExpress38
So literally not even the flu
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:32 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Social distancing had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths
Surely you don't believe that? You really think that if people had gone about their daily business then the death totals wouldn't be any higher than they presently are? Jeez.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:34 am to mylsuhat
quote:
So maybe, just maybe, the social distancing and quarantine have worked better than projected?
Unless you think our "overwhelmed hospitals" would've actually overwhelmed leaving thousands dying in streets for lack of treatment (and even then, vents have a lackluster recovery record), then maybe, just maybe not.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:35 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Surely you don't believe that? You really think that if people had gone about their daily business then the death totals wouldn't be any higher than they presently are? Jeez.
I definitely believe this if you look at the entire projection window.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:36 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Social distancing had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths. It was to flatten the curve, lengthen the time during which we experienced this....but they will all lie about that now
Yeap.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:36 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Surely you don't believe that? You really think that if people had gone about their daily business then the death totals wouldn't be any higher than they presently are? Jeez.
The projections are for total deaths, not current deaths....how does social distancing change the amount of people that will eventually be infected and die? It just postpones it, spreads it out over time...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:37 am to SidewalkDawg
quote:It was to flatten the curve as to not overload hospitals which would have increased the death rate
Social distancing had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths. It was to flatten the curve, lengthen the time during which we experienced this....but they will all lie about that now
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:38 am to RebelExpress38
Do these numbers factor in Trump’s miracle drug cure that he was right about?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:38 am to mylsuhat
quote:
It was to flatten the curve as to not overload hospitals which would have increased the death rate
The mortality projections were independent of healthcare system overload. They did not attempt to model what the mortalities would look like if the system was overloaded.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:38 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Social distancing had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths.
It doesn't have anything to do with the number of people that get it but it does have to do with reducing the number of deaths. The idea is that you keep the number of people that have at one time down to a level that it is manageable by health care facilities and officials.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:40 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
The projections are for total deaths, not current deaths..
Well you said "had nothing" so that is what my post was based on.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:40 am to the808bass
quote:
The mortality projections were independent of healthcare system overload. They did not attempt to model what the mortalities would look like if the system was overloaded.
No sense trying to talk reason with the chicken littles. The narrative will be (just as I predicted weeks ago) this was all worth it.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:42 am to TimeOutdoors
quote:
The idea is that you keep the number of people that have at one time down to a level that it is manageable by health care facilities and officials.
Correct. But if the projections of 1) available healthcare system resources and 2) the extent of the infection rate of the population are both off (and they seem to have both been incorrect), then the raison d’être for social distancing goes out the window.
No one is going to want to admit any of that now. And there’s a decent argument to be made for erring on the side of caution. But I don’t see any way to back into a conclusion that says “the models weren’t that bad.”
Now, things could turn from the current situation. So we’re all in a state of flux. But it certainly is beginning to look like we may have overreacted on a previously unseen scale.
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