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re: If you are confused about whats happening, this may help.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:09 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:09 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Europe loves to follow the lead
The US is simultaneously reorganizing Venezuela, launching an aerial attack from the sea on Iran, laying the ground work for a new Cuba and conducting a mission behind the Moon, while nations that aren't self-sufficient in toothpaste lecture us every day about American decline or attempt to shame us. Why should we care what any of them think? We have been carrying their financial and moral obligation for war and defense since the USSR fell.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:14 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Israel's plan?
You think Iran devolving into sectarian violence was the plan?
Frankly, yes.
It's at least an outcome that they would be happy with. A divided Iran is less of a threat to Israel, and making Iran and its proxy groups less of a threat to Israel is the point of everything we and the Israelis are doing.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:16 pm to RiverCityTider
quote:
The IRGC (Iran bad guys) have fractured in two and verging on civil war. There is no single coherent Government.
They haven’t fractured at all, they’ve coalesced behind Mojtaba Khamenei. They believe his father was a martyr, and he’s achieved a level of legitimacy now that he’s worked a deal with the U.S. and Israel that his people believe is a win.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 12:09 am to DyeHardDylan
quote:
They haven’t fractured at all, they’ve coalesced behind Mojtaba Khamenei. They believe his father was a martyr, and he’s achieved a level of legitimacy now that he’s worked a deal with the U.S. and Israel that his people believe is a win.
Hmmm. This is not what im seeing at all.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 2:10 am to RiverCityTider
So work with the side that wants peace and blow up the others. Seems pretty simple to me.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 3:13 am to supatigah
quote:
I have Iran civil war and michigan wins the tourney...,
I've posted umpteen times that there will be a civil war between rival factions. We will pick a side, China/Russia will pick the other. Proxy war again.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 3:19 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You think Iran devolving into sectarian violence was the plan?
It didn't have to be part of the plan. But anyone should have realized going in that as soon as there is a vacuum of leadership, rival clans are going to fight it out over control.
And China and Russia aren't just going to sit back on the sidelines and watch.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 5:16 am to RiverCityTider
All of that and they are crippling a global superpower’s economy? We can’t get control of a pathway of water to stabilize things when they have no navy, Air Force, army etc?
Feel like I’m taking crazy pills
Feel like I’m taking crazy pills
Posted on 4/10/26 at 5:55 am to bbeck
I’m sure we could. Why risk our navy atm though? Even one ship getting hit a bit or 1 life lost a wouldn’t be worth it if we can open it sometime this month by other means.
To be honest it serves us better closed atm for more leverage over nato at least until trump extracts whatever he wants from them, which I imagine is Greenland.
We are in no worry of running out of gas like they are just have a bit higher gas prices since it’s priced at a global level.
To be honest it serves us better closed atm for more leverage over nato at least until trump extracts whatever he wants from them, which I imagine is Greenland.
We are in no worry of running out of gas like they are just have a bit higher gas prices since it’s priced at a global level.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:04 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You think Iran devolving into sectarian violence was the plan?
I think it was one of the plan’s likely outcomes. We can’t have a plan that assumes that we will thread the needle and everything will work out perfectly.
If Iran descends into sectarian violence we, and the Gulf States, can pick a winner, and support them until they quell the opposition. It might take years. During that time, oil flow through the Gulf could be sporadically impacted, and this might cause trillions of dollars of economic loss. Fortunately this would hit our enemies harder than us.
Eventually Iran would emerge as a more normal country, and this would be a very valuable outcome.
I’m not predicting it will go this way, but if it does I’ll be glad we initiated hostilities.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:09 am to Penrod
quote:
Eventually Iran would emerge as a more normal country
There is no guarantee of this.
-would
+could
China, and to a lesser extent Russia, are not going to just let Iran flip flop to where they lose an ally. A super important one for China in particular.
China is much more likely to "pick the winner" than Gulf States, also.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:18 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
China is much more likely to "pick the winner" than Gulf States, also.
If Iran lose its Islamic proselytizing ideology than China will have a weak hand. Iran’s self-interest has always been joining with the rest of the Gulf States as an oil and gas and economic block. Only their fierce Islamic orientation has kept them from that. If they get rid of the radical Islamists the pull toward Gulf alignment will be too strong. But they have to be able to put the Islamists back in the box. As I wrote in my previous post, I don’t know that this will happen, but if it does I feel sure China will lose the ensuing diplomatic battle for Iran.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:26 am to RiverCityTider
quote:
Controversies: His tenure has been marked by allegations of corruption and embezzlement, particularly in 2022, which he has denied.
At least he has something in common with every politician in Washington.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:34 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:So those 2 countries will try to help extremist Muslim people continue their horrific reign over a bunch of folks who want nothing to do with nasty arse Islam?
And China and Russia aren't just going to sit back on the sidelines and watch.
That’s fricked and why wouldn’t the entire international community do everything in their power to frick Russia and China for this?
This post was edited on 4/10/26 at 7:36 am
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