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re: If you are confused about whats happening, this may help.

Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:09 pm to
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
30031 posts
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

Europe loves to follow the lead


The US is simultaneously reorganizing Venezuela, launching an aerial attack from the sea on Iran, laying the ground work for a new Cuba and conducting a mission behind the Moon, while nations that aren't self-sufficient in toothpaste lecture us every day about American decline or attempt to shame us. Why should we care what any of them think? We have been carrying their financial and moral obligation for war and defense since the USSR fell.
Posted by Chuck Barris
Member since Apr 2013
3186 posts
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

You think Iran devolving into sectarian violence was the plan? 
Israel's plan?

Frankly, yes.

It's at least an outcome that they would be happy with. A divided Iran is less of a threat to Israel, and making Iran and its proxy groups less of a threat to Israel is the point of everything we and the Israelis are doing.
Posted by DyeHardDylan
Member since Nov 2011
9732 posts
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:16 pm to
quote:

The IRGC (Iran bad guys) have fractured in two and verging on civil war. There is no single coherent Government.


They haven’t fractured at all, they’ve coalesced behind Mojtaba Khamenei. They believe his father was a martyr, and he’s achieved a level of legitimacy now that he’s worked a deal with the U.S. and Israel that his people believe is a win.
Posted by RiverCityTider
Jacksonville, Florida
Member since Oct 2008
6793 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 12:09 am to
quote:

They haven’t fractured at all, they’ve coalesced behind Mojtaba Khamenei. They believe his father was a martyr, and he’s achieved a level of legitimacy now that he’s worked a deal with the U.S. and Israel that his people believe is a win.


Hmmm. This is not what im seeing at all.
Posted by Neutral Underground
Member since Mar 2024
3327 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 2:10 am to
So work with the side that wants peace and blow up the others. Seems pretty simple to me.
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
29227 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 3:13 am to
quote:

I have Iran civil war and michigan wins the tourney...,


I've posted umpteen times that there will be a civil war between rival factions. We will pick a side, China/Russia will pick the other. Proxy war again.
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
29227 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 3:19 am to
quote:

You think Iran devolving into sectarian violence was the plan?


It didn't have to be part of the plan. But anyone should have realized going in that as soon as there is a vacuum of leadership, rival clans are going to fight it out over control.

And China and Russia aren't just going to sit back on the sidelines and watch.
Posted by bbeck
Member since Dec 2011
15397 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 5:16 am to
All of that and they are crippling a global superpower’s economy? We can’t get control of a pathway of water to stabilize things when they have no navy, Air Force, army etc?

Feel like I’m taking crazy pills
Posted by Houag80
Member since Jul 2019
19464 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 5:53 am to
"Let them fight".
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
30031 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 5:55 am to
I’m sure we could. Why risk our navy atm though? Even one ship getting hit a bit or 1 life lost a wouldn’t be worth it if we can open it sometime this month by other means.

To be honest it serves us better closed atm for more leverage over nato at least until trump extracts whatever he wants from them, which I imagine is Greenland.

We are in no worry of running out of gas like they are just have a bit higher gas prices since it’s priced at a global level.
Posted by Houag80
Member since Jul 2019
19464 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 6:00 am to
Nailed it.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
55479 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:04 am to
quote:

You think Iran devolving into sectarian violence was the plan?

I think it was one of the plan’s likely outcomes. We can’t have a plan that assumes that we will thread the needle and everything will work out perfectly.

If Iran descends into sectarian violence we, and the Gulf States, can pick a winner, and support them until they quell the opposition. It might take years. During that time, oil flow through the Gulf could be sporadically impacted, and this might cause trillions of dollars of economic loss. Fortunately this would hit our enemies harder than us.

Eventually Iran would emerge as a more normal country, and this would be a very valuable outcome.

I’m not predicting it will go this way, but if it does I’ll be glad we initiated hostilities.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476619 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:09 am to
quote:

Eventually Iran would emerge as a more normal country

There is no guarantee of this.

-would
+could

China, and to a lesser extent Russia, are not going to just let Iran flip flop to where they lose an ally. A super important one for China in particular.

China is much more likely to "pick the winner" than Gulf States, also.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
55479 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:18 am to
quote:

China is much more likely to "pick the winner" than Gulf States, also.

If Iran lose its Islamic proselytizing ideology than China will have a weak hand. Iran’s self-interest has always been joining with the rest of the Gulf States as an oil and gas and economic block. Only their fierce Islamic orientation has kept them from that. If they get rid of the radical Islamists the pull toward Gulf alignment will be too strong. But they have to be able to put the Islamists back in the box. As I wrote in my previous post, I don’t know that this will happen, but if it does I feel sure China will lose the ensuing diplomatic battle for Iran.
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
95026 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:26 am to
quote:

Controversies: His tenure has been marked by allegations of corruption and embezzlement, particularly in 2022, which he has denied.


At least he has something in common with every politician in Washington.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
91475 posts
Posted on 4/10/26 at 7:34 am to
quote:

And China and Russia aren't just going to sit back on the sidelines and watch.
So those 2 countries will try to help extremist Muslim people continue their horrific reign over a bunch of folks who want nothing to do with nasty arse Islam?

That’s fricked and why wouldn’t the entire international community do everything in their power to frick Russia and China for this?
This post was edited on 4/10/26 at 7:36 am
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