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re: I made a handy pic to explain to people who think we're trying to eradicate COVID
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:00 pm to TigerDoc
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:00 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
But it's awfully sanguine and risky to implement a casual-arse mitigation strategy. Those baws in Sweden were ballsy, but I think they were counting on the fact that they've got a population that's a lot more amenable to following orders from the government that Ozark baws do.
Not it all, its called science and math. The evidence never existed to do all this shite, which is what myself and others said 6 weeks ago.
It doesn't take balls, it took about two brain cells. Maybe next time, someone actually ask for the evidence because it never existed.
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 4:01 pm
0
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:00 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
But it's awfully sanguine and risky to implement a casual-arse mitigation strategy.
It’s not when you’re looking at a declining slope and 5,000 available hospital beds. That’s not sanguine or risky. The sanguine part was killing people’s livelihood on a model.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
I wished someone had made a graph about the use of condoms when I was younger.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:02 pm to the808bass
quote:
It’s not when you’re looking at a declining slope and 5,000 available hospital beds.
that's the whole issue
we NEED more spread at this point because we're wasting available hospital beds and we don't get anything except a negative result (longer self-imposed economic sanctions) for that loss
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:05 pm to SlowFlowPro
i added a notated version
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:13 pm to SlowFlowPro
I appreciate you posting this. I have made this argument to so many people IRL over the last few weeks. This graph is handy.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
we NEED more spread at this point because we're wasting available hospital beds and we don't get anything except a negative result (longer self-imposed economic sanctions) for that loss
The problem is when we open up, and the spike happens, as it will and as it should, even though we aren’t at risk of reaching capacity, people like renowned loon and conspiracy theorist tigerdoc will start screaming at the sky hoping their hysteria will hurt trump with the uninformed.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 4:37 pm to GRTiger
Your comparison is unreasonable to cartoonish proportions.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:05 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
The problem is when we open up, and the spike happens, as it will and as it should, even though we aren’t at risk of reaching capacity, people like renowned loon and conspiracy theorist tigerdoc will start screaming at the sky hoping their hysteria will hurt trump with the uninformed.
why i keep hammering this point home
why i made the stupid pic in OP
i posted this in a left-ish (not leftist) group and those motherfrickers were like "WHERE IS UR DATA" or "WHAT ARE THE ACTUAL TIMELINES" durrr
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:06 pm to SickGainzLP
The consequences of the response to coronavirus could never be out-cartooned at this point.
Let me know if the hyperbole was too strong for you to grasp the point I made, though. Happy to help.
Let me know if the hyperbole was too strong for you to grasp the point I made, though. Happy to help.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:18 pm to SlowFlowPro
You didn't build that someone else built that
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:22 pm to GRTiger
No analogy was necessary. I just disagree with your Monday morning qb argument which uses the effectiveness of mitigation efforts as evidence that the risk was overrated.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:31 pm to SickGainzLP
Your analysis was incomplete and you tried to come off as some risk management expert while ignoring a critical part of the process.
Risk management has a very large "Monday morning quarterback" component to it as well, professor.
Risk management has a very large "Monday morning quarterback" component to it as well, professor.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:35 pm to Barnacle Bill
quote:
You didn't build that someone else built that
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:36 pm to GRTiger
Risks have assumptions sure... And those assumptions were documented in the models. As more data has come in daily they've been adjusted. There is no data to suggest that the mitigation measures were unnecessary. Folks are just using their effectiveness to make that implication... Take it or don't... It doesn't change the reality you are going to wake up in tomorrow.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:43 pm to SlowFlowPro
I posted this to one of the trashier FB groups I belong to. Should be fun to watch.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:44 pm to SickGainzLP
quote:
There is no data to suggest that the mitigation measures were unnecessary.
Sure there is. Missouri hit its peak before the shelter in place order was issued. That’s an unnecessary mitigation measure.
Checkmate.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:49 pm to SickGainzLP
So back to the general point of the OP, you seem to consider any strategy that "flattens the curve" as successful, regardless of overkill.
Mass layoffs in Healthcare, billions of lost revenue, thousands of empty hospital beds, and capacity never even coming close to capacity is an output to consider when judging the effectiveness and efficiency of the risk treatment. Not even considering the consequences we're seeing outside of the industry.
You refuse to consider that a more tempered response was more appropriate? And further, you are accusing someone like me of being so stupid as to think in black and white terms of "treatment x worked, therefore treatment x was not necessary?" You may be projecting.
quote:
There is no data to suggest that the mitigation measures were unnecessary.
Mass layoffs in Healthcare, billions of lost revenue, thousands of empty hospital beds, and capacity never even coming close to capacity is an output to consider when judging the effectiveness and efficiency of the risk treatment. Not even considering the consequences we're seeing outside of the industry.
You refuse to consider that a more tempered response was more appropriate? And further, you are accusing someone like me of being so stupid as to think in black and white terms of "treatment x worked, therefore treatment x was not necessary?" You may be projecting.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 5:59 pm to GRTiger
It is projection. I know the type. He's stating unproveable claims as fact. There's no point in continuing to reason with him.
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 5:59 pm
Posted on 4/20/20 at 6:09 pm to GRTiger
Where we differ is that you seem to consider the current health picture with mitigations in place as evidence that we went too far because of the economic damage we have incurred. I consider the current economic damage to pale in comparison to the RISK of doing nothing or going forward with a far less stringent approach... Both in terms of loss of life AND long term economic damage.
I don't want this to last any longer than it has to. I had an extremely active life...office, gym, bars, restaurants, hangouts. I miss it all and I hate our current predicament. I also kind of resent people who seem too comfortable with the current state and are treating it like a vacation.
That said, second guessing the response for being too effective is futile. What everyone needs to be focused on is how to intelligently start to roll things back without putting us right back where we started in the next few months.
I don't want this to last any longer than it has to. I had an extremely active life...office, gym, bars, restaurants, hangouts. I miss it all and I hate our current predicament. I also kind of resent people who seem too comfortable with the current state and are treating it like a vacation.
That said, second guessing the response for being too effective is futile. What everyone needs to be focused on is how to intelligently start to roll things back without putting us right back where we started in the next few months.
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