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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:06 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
9-figures of taxpaymer money
rounding error
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:08 pm to GRTiger
quote:
the elimination/reduction of a risk in and of itself is not evidence of a successful risk mitigation strategy.
Sure, but you shouldn't ignore what this disease has actually done in places where it gets out of control. We could've had lots of places like New York.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:10 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
We could've had lots of places like New York.
Weird since we don’t have many places like New York.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:11 pm to TigerDoc
That’s not a picture of system capacity.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:12 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
We could've had lots of places like New York.
quote:
Weird since we don’t have many places like New York.
ok that was a good one
and is anywhere currently a threat to be like NYC? our major west coast areas have already faced COVID in large numbers. NYC and its surrounding areas will be done sooner rather than later. Nola, Detroit, etc.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:14 pm to the808bass
Yes, you're right. The point is this that causes a massive spike in avoidable mortality unless you suppress it. I know you agree with this.
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:14 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Sure, but you shouldn't ignore what this disease has actually done in places where it gets out of control. We could've had lots of places like New York.
We should destroy the economy for every "could've" going forward.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:14 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
avoidable mortality if you suppress it.
So you disagree with the epidemiologists.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:15 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
. The point is this that causes a massive spike in avoidable mortality if you suppress it.
based on what, exactly?
having hospitals overrun? maybe, but that never actually happened
are you saying that the disease itself will have a higher rate of mortality by simply being around more cases?
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:15 pm to the808bass
I edited a typo. ;-)
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
based on what, exactly?
having hospitals overrun? maybe, but that never actually happened
are you saying that the disease itself will have a higher rate of mortality by simply being around more cases?
The best solution is to raise the capacity line on the graph. That was done to a certain degree. The incidence line was also flattened.
You also think it was flattened - excessively in your opinion, right?
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:22 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
You also think it was flattened - excessively in your opinion, right?
The stated goal of the flattening (which we all knew was bullshite) was to keep our health system from being overwhelmed. Well, it’s not overwhelmed and yet we’re told that it’s “too soon.”
It’s not too soon. It’s likely too late. Missouri had its peak in new cases the week before we sheltered in place.
The models are all shite and we should ignore them. Focus on actual data and move ahead.
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:24 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
You also think it was flattened - excessively in your opinion, right?
i don't think the blue line was ever a real threat and, accordingly, our current curve is well below that line
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
Sorry didn’t see the small print on the black line on the phone....
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
Data management is cool.
In laymen's or more common sense terms, the question has to be asked:
If, at some as yet undetermined point in the future, we are through with COVID-19, will we have a similar response to the next unknown virus that comes along? Or will we enter a wheel of perpetual surrender now that we have 'mastered' predictive analytics?
The hubris of intellect and its never ending eschatological tilt , I say...
In laymen's or more common sense terms, the question has to be asked:
If, at some as yet undetermined point in the future, we are through with COVID-19, will we have a similar response to the next unknown virus that comes along? Or will we enter a wheel of perpetual surrender now that we have 'mastered' predictive analytics?
The hubris of intellect and its never ending eschatological tilt , I say...
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:35 pm to SlowFlowPro
It wasn't exceeded in New York because they surged capacity, socially distanced, and have great facilities and staff.
Rural hospitals are in much worse shape in this country. We've had many close and ICU capacity is often much below what they have there. These governors know that.
People are still buying too much into the "money or your life" pseudo-choice. The illness is going to be with us a long time. Suppression helps shrink it to a manageable level where testing and tracing could make a difference if you're willing to do what South Korea has done or even what Germany is doing.
Rural hospitals are in much worse shape in this country. We've had many close and ICU capacity is often much below what they have there. These governors know that.
People are still buying too much into the "money or your life" pseudo-choice. The illness is going to be with us a long time. Suppression helps shrink it to a manageable level where testing and tracing could make a difference if you're willing to do what South Korea has done or even what Germany is doing.
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
When did we get anywhere close to maxing our healthcare capacity?
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:38 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
It wasn't exceeded in New York because they surged capacity, socially distanced, and have great facilities and staff.
NYC is the one area where there were REAL issues
Nola was predicted to be as bad and, as we saw by the hundred million dollar waste i posted earlier, we didn't face capacity
most places, at this point, have no threat of being either NYC or Nola
quote:
We've had many close
thanks, Obamacare, fricking SFP's wallet and rural hospitals with one swoop
Posted on 4/20/20 at 3:42 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Rural hospitals are in much worse shape in this country. We've had many close and ICU capacity is often much below what they have there. These governors know that.
These governors know jack shite and jack left town.
quote:
Suppression helps shrink it to a manageable level where testing and tracing could make a difference if you're willing to do what South Korea has done or even what Germany is doing.
No it doesn't. And testing doesn't do jack shite, the only real purpose of testing is to try and isolate the most vulnerable i.e. nursing homes. Testing for the rest of us doesn't mean shite.
This post was edited on 4/20/20 at 3:46 pm
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