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Message
re: I did a slightly deeper analyses on the presidential election. Trump wins 294-244.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:26 pm to The People
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:26 pm to The People
quote:
No way Trump doesn't take Minnesota.
1984:
1
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:27 pm to tigersbb
quote:
Any chance that any of Nevada, New Mexico or Colorado go to Trump?
Trump lost Nevada by 2.4% in 2016. I have him closing the gap but still losing by 1.5% in 2020.
The gap in Colorado widens because of Jill Stein. I have 95% of her votes going to Biden. Trump lost Colorado by 5.1 in 2016 and I have him losing by 6.2 in 2020.
With that said my analysis does not take into account the illegal voting that probably took place in 2016 especially in the southwest states like Colorado and Nevada. We will see if Trump tough border security for the last 3.5 years pays dividends at the polls in these southwest states in 2020.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:27 pm to GumboPot
The libertarians will get far more votes this time.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:28 pm to GumboPot
quote:
So I expect the Libertarian ticket to be 50% of the 2016 turnout. I also assumed the remaining 50%, 60% will go to Trump and 40% will go to Biden. The Johnson ticket last time attracted a large proportion of Republican voters and pulled from Trump.
I would say this election over 90% of libertarian vote will be Trump. However, I expect alot of Libertarians to vote
Jo Jorgensen. Trump sending agents in select cities is hurting him with libertarian voters.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:29 pm to Pisco
Someone on this board a while back was saying how with Vegas emptied of transplants due to the virus Nevada could very well be in play. Only I think 7 EVs but anything helps
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:29 pm to Skeezer
quote:
The libertarians will get far more votes this tim
No they won't.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:30 pm to sms151t
With this model, Romney would have won in 2012.
IMO, this is a better option for the EC than going to the popular vote model.
IMO, this is a better option for the EC than going to the popular vote model.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:30 pm to GumboPot
This is the most excited libertarians have been for ticket in decades. At least since Browne.
They finally have a true small government/individual rights ticket.
The libertarians will get at least a couple more percent more of the vote this time around. Many libertarians didn’t get out to vote for Johnson. We hated that ticket. Especially bill weld.
This will be the first LP ticket I’ve voted for. I haven’t voted in the last 5 elections.
They finally have a true small government/individual rights ticket.
The libertarians will get at least a couple more percent more of the vote this time around. Many libertarians didn’t get out to vote for Johnson. We hated that ticket. Especially bill weld.
This will be the first LP ticket I’ve voted for. I haven’t voted in the last 5 elections.
This post was edited on 7/29/20 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:30 pm to Smedium27
Would not each district be more fair and representative of the electorate and you would truly get every vote matters type of election? I know there would most likely be gerrymandering by both parties, but it just seems that would be the best way to go. I also think it would be easier to spot voter fraud and mail-in ballot fraud.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:31 pm to GumboPot
Don't sleep on the higher Catholic turn out and an even larger swing toward Trump. He has absolutely killed it on the pro-life issue and many Catholics will reward that effort in the polling place.
In general the Pro-life vote was luke warm (at best) for Trump last time around. Now they are fired up.
In general the Pro-life vote was luke warm (at best) for Trump last time around. Now they are fired up.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:32 pm to jrodLSUke
Yeah Mondale was MN
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:32 pm to Pisco
quote:
It’s a fair map, but how does The President win WI and PA, but not MI? Look at what half whit is doing to that state. Her approval ratings have dropped a lot. My gut has your map, but add MI and MN. 320 is what I have and don’t discount NV that he only lost by 2%.
I'm assuming the the enthusiasm gap between Trump and Hillary in 2016 will be the same as 2020 between Trump and Biden and simply splitting mostly the Johnson and Stein vote in each state.
I hope the enthusiasm gap widens in favor of Trump but IDK how to model that. I guess I can figure it out but I'm not digging that deep because I just don't have the time. Additionally enthusiasm is fluid and changes day by day based on events.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:34 pm to Skeezer
quote:
They finally have a true small government/individual rights ticket.
Spike Cohen will be the reason why states that always go red or blue will have a lot of votes for Jo/Spike.
If the states that will go to Trump or Biden regardless of your vote, will be the states that have the most libertarians vote. States that are split will, IMO , have less libertarian voters
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:36 pm to GumboPot
If Trump doesn’t win Minnesota after the city council abolished the police department, that would be a humiliating loss for him. He only lost by 10,000 votes last time, and I can’t imagine that he can’t get at least another 10,000 voters from all the shite going down in that state.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:37 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Trump will have to get 70% of 50% of the Johnson vote because Biden is getting 95% of the Stein vote.
Do you think libertarians are going to vote for Kamala Harris? Next to Beto and the ogre from New York, Kamala is the last person on that stage that libertarians would vote for.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:37 pm to Skeezer
quote:
The libertarians will get far more votes this time.
You think these guys will get the same 2016 turnout?
Spike Cohen, left, your 2020 Libertarian veep nominee, alongside his mentor Vermin Supreme.
The Libertarians had a MUCH more mainstream ticket in 2016 than 2020.
2016 ticket:
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:38 pm to GumboPot
I think it’s hilarious that you’re getting downvotes for having Trump win, but not win ‘bigly” enough.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:39 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
No they won't.
I’m a libertarian and you can bet your arse I’ll be at the polls.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:40 pm to GumboPot
quote:
You think these guys will get the same 2016 turnout?
See, you're a SANE person so you don't get it....
Libertarians actually find that pic kewwwwwwl.....
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:40 pm to sms151t
quote:
1 vote each for the house district
2 votes for winner of popular vote in the state
I actually wouldn’t mind this, but we would need 2 steps taken first:
1. Every states’s voter registration is cleared out. If you want to vote again in any federal election, you have to come in person with at least two forms of identification with one of them being a picture ID to be reregistered.
2. Anyone who knowingly commits or knowingly aids in the commission of the act of voter fraud is sentenced to 10 years in federal prison and is never allowed to vote in any federal election again.
I would like to add a 3rd one but I know this one will never happen:
3. If you haven’t been a net positive federal taxpayer since the last federal election, then you don’t get to vote in that federal election. Something would have to be done for retirees/SS recipients (who shouldn’t be taxed again, but SS should have been wiped out/privatized decades ago), but if you don’t have skin - money - in the game, then you don’t get to vote on who spends it.
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