re: How is Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%?

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I remember when the polls said Wendy Davis was going to beat Abbott

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I’ll take things that never happened for $600 Alex.

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I remember when the polls said Wendy Davis was going to beat Abbott, or when Beto was going to beat Cruz.

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I don’t know if the polls for this current race are correct or not, but what you’re saying is 100% false.

I lived in Texas during both of these races. The Cruz election in particular was shockingly close. We all believed that Cruz would win that by close to 10 points.

One random internet poll. That's it.

And in the same article that was linked, was also this:

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Ipsos online polls do not have margins of error; instead, the poll’s precision is measured using a “credibility interval.” This poll’s credibility interval was +/-3.5 percentage points among likely voters.

A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday put Cruz 9 percentage points ahead of O’Rourke among likely voters. That poll was based on phone interviews, while the Ipsos poll used an online survey. But it’s trying to predict who will show up on Election Day that shifts the numbers, said Ipsos Vice President Chris Jackson.

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The polls with known names that "insiders" and the campaigns themselves actually give credibility to had Cruz winning the race. Quinnipac, which tends to be left-leaning, was showing Cruz up by 9 when this random internet poll group that most have never heard of was trying to promote Beto up by 2.

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moderates dont poll

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I think there's some truth to that. Those who are politically "active" or very interested in politics are probably the most enthusiastic to take political polls.

I do believe, though, that even the politically active on the right over the past years have become less willing to answer campaign polling calls or take surveys. I know I have. 10-15 years ago, I would jump at the opportunity "to be heard". Now...I hang up on them, or when it's a text, I choose "Report as Spam and Delete". So I think there's some numbers in that segment not being accounted for.

All the folks in this thread that keep saying "I remember when all the polls showed Beto/Allred beating Cruz and Davis beating Abbott", if giving them the doubt, are probably more remembering the media trying their best to push ANY narrative they may point at even the slightest possibility of one of those folks winning. People in the mainstream media as a whole tend to lean left, and then when you consider media outlets like the Houston Chronicle and Texas Monthly, those folks overall are probably to the left of even your usual Democrat voter in Texas.

Those two outlets were trying to pump up Beto as the Texas version of Barack Obama, this rising star to turn Texas blue! They were scraping and clawing for anything they could to make it seem like Beto was about to "free Texas from Cruz and Trump". Idiots.

Talifreako draws on socialists and weird people as his base. They are not the majority. It is just a matter of voter turnout…..


LINK

To answer your question, I think he is leading because there are a bunch of people (however weird you think they may be) who like Talarico. There are not very many who like Paxton.

That does not mean Talarico will win the election.

But Paxton won the primary because people don’t like the RINO Cornyn, and people are voting for him now because they don’t like “6-gender Talarico”.

I know a decent number of people who have worked with Talarico on education related stuff in Central Texas, and even though I can understand why he comes across as a little weird, the people I know who have worked with him have said he is one of the nicest people who seems like he genuinely cares about helping others.

Again, none of this means he will win in November, but I do understand why a guy who is liked by some people is ahead of a guy who is liked by almost no one.

He's not.

Fox has the worst or in bottom three rated polls EVERY election cycle. Don’t know how most don’t remember this.
Rasmussen and atlas are the best two from last few election cycles and it’s not close

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I lived in Texas during both of these races. The Cruz election in particular was shockingly close. We all believed that Cruz would win that by close to 10 points.

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I checked the polls of the era. Cruz was supposed to win easily. He didn't. He did much better last time.

If Paxton loses, Cruz will be in trouble next time.

The only signs for ANY politician I’ve seen in my red neighborhood are for talarico. This will change as the election gets closer.