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re: Glacial melt has tripled in the Amundsen Sea

Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:33 am to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138874 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:33 am to
quote:

Really? So hydrodynamics isn't physics anymore? I seemed to think it was.
Our conversation had to do with the wholly nonpredictive success of predictive climate modelling.

Our earlier conversation had to do with solar variance.

You've chosen to avoid both. Odd behavior indeed.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134885 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:41 am to
quote:

You've chosen to avoid both. Odd behavior indeed.

It's typical behavior by Spidey.
Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:54 am to
quote:

I'd argue that the upside of having electricity, plastic, modern medicine, electronics, is by far a net benefit even if the hyperbolic doomsday predictions occur.

Leaving aside the causes of a hypothetical global warming, what would be the "hyperbolic doomsday" scenario?

Estimates are that should just the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melt, the resulting release of water to the oceans would raise sea-level by about 65 meters. That equates to over 210 feet of sea level rise for the non-metric minded among us.

What would the effects of a 200+ foot rise in sea level be? What are the elevations of New York, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Houston, and San Diego among other coastal cities?

Regardless of the cause of the loss of the ice sheets, what would be the ramifications?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134885 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:58 am to
quote:

What would the effects of a 200+ foot rise in sea level be?
What is the time frame for your hypothetical question?
Posted by son of arlo
State of Innocence
Member since Sep 2013
4577 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

What is the time frame for your hypothetical question?


Two days before the day after tomorrow.



Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

What is the time frame for your hypothetical question?

Say 100 years.
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46366 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

What would the effects of a 200+ foot rise in sea level be? What are the elevations of New York, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Houston, and San Diego among other coastal cities?

Regardless of the cause of the loss of the ice sheets, what would be the ramifications?



How much would temps have to rise for this to happen?
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63313 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

Estimates are that should just the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melt, the resulting release of water to the oceans would raise sea-level by about 65 meters.
Who is predicting that? The IPCC's most doomsday prediction (R8.5) only predicts a 0.53–0.98m rise in the next century. LINK

The more reasonable model is 0.28–0.61m over the upcoming century and ~1m by the year 2300.

If we can't adapt to that we suck as a species.
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 12:22 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134885 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

Say 100 years.
I think you're off by about 100 years.

In 200 years, do you think those cities you mentioned, or home sapiens for that matter, will still exist on Earth? I don't.

Our species will either be extinct or colonizing another planet. Do you even Star Trek??
Posted by speckledtrout
Birmingham, AL
Member since Apr 2011
2035 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:22 pm to
Glaciers sank the Titanic. BAN GLACIERS!!

Posted by Iosh
Bureau of Interstellar Immigration
Member since Dec 2012
18941 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

You have continued to fail to address (or comprehend) that consumers won't continually buy products that economically damage themselves over the long term.
*coughs*
Posted by SpidermanTUba
my house
Member since May 2004
36132 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

You have continued to fail to address (or comprehend) that consumers won't continually buy products that economically damage themselves over the long term.
Net carbon emission damages the environment. People keep buying it. So you are wrong. Duh
Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

Who is predicting that? The IPCC's most doomsday prediction

I was just referring to the "hyperbolic doomsday predictions", not necessarily the IPCC.

quote:

If we can't adapt to that we suck as a species.


But at what cost?
Posted by SpidermanTUba
my house
Member since May 2004
36132 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:18 pm to

LSURussian - does the article you linked to talk about the Antarctic ice sheet - or the Antarctic sea ice?
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Estimates are that should just the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melt, the resulting release of water to the oceans would raise sea-level by about 65 meters.


I love to see these calculations. Please link.
Posted by Jim Ignatowski
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2013
1383 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Net carbon emission damages the environment.


There is no proof of this....save the left wing "go find the evidence to support your agenda" crowd. Try again!!
Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

The IPCC's most doomsday prediction (R8.5) only predicts a 0.53–0.98m rise in the next century.


quote:

Latest Sea-Level Rise Estimates Still Too Conservative?

Despite the higher sea-level rise projections in the latest IPCC report and improved ability of models to reproduce historical rates of sea-level rise, some respected scientists maintain still that even the new AR5 numbers are too low.

Their argument primarily boils down to two different approaches: process models, which use climate models and physics to estimate sea-level rise, and semi-empirical models, which include evidence of past sea-level rise (mostly during the last ice age) to help determine the relationship between temperatures and sea level. Process models tend to produce lower estimates, empirical models higher ones.

The recently released IPCC Working Group I report discounts empirical models, saying that “Many semi-empirical model projections of global mean sea-level rise are higher than process-based model projections (up to about twice as large), but there is no consensus in the scientific community about their reliability and there is thus low confidence in their projections.” Researchers like Potsdam University Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, who have worked with semi-empirical models, argue that a wholesale discounting of these approaches is erroneous, and represents an overly conservative approach from the IPCC.

For now at least, it is still unclear just what exactly future sea-level rise will be, as uncertainty ranges remain large. At the same time, it is clear that the best estimates of future sea-level rise are considerably higher now than they were just five years ago. The level of sea-level rise by 2100 will mostly depend on which future emissions scenario societies follow, and it’s clear that significant efforts to reduce future emissions, coupled with well thought-out adaptation efforts, can significantly reduce future sea-level rise and its damaging impacts.

LINK
Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

How High Will It Go?

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, push sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.

LINK
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, push sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.


The biggest challenge with these models is the cause and effect relationship between the inputs and boundary conditions. Second is defining the inputs and boundary conditions. It's based on the same principle of changing water levels in a tank as a function of temperature however what is different is the tank. The boundary of the tank containing the oceans (our shores) is dynamic. And the inputs into this system are dynamic. Not only are climate inputs important but geologic and cosmic inputs must be included in this dynamic system too.

That's tough to model.
Posted by SpidermanTUba
my house
Member since May 2004
36132 posts
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:40 pm to
quote:


There is no proof of this....save the left wing "go find the evidence to support your agenda" crowd. Try again!!
theres no proof of anything by denialist standards
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