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re: Glacial melt has tripled in the Amundsen Sea
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:33 am to SpidermanTUba
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:33 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:Our conversation had to do with the wholly nonpredictive success of predictive climate modelling.
Really? So hydrodynamics isn't physics anymore? I seemed to think it was.
Our earlier conversation had to do with solar variance.
You've chosen to avoid both. Odd behavior indeed.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:41 am to NC_Tigah
quote:It's typical behavior by Spidey.
You've chosen to avoid both. Odd behavior indeed.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:54 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
I'd argue that the upside of having electricity, plastic, modern medicine, electronics, is by far a net benefit even if the hyperbolic doomsday predictions occur.
Leaving aside the causes of a hypothetical global warming, what would be the "hyperbolic doomsday" scenario?
Estimates are that should just the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melt, the resulting release of water to the oceans would raise sea-level by about 65 meters. That equates to over 210 feet of sea level rise for the non-metric minded among us.
What would the effects of a 200+ foot rise in sea level be? What are the elevations of New York, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Houston, and San Diego among other coastal cities?
Regardless of the cause of the loss of the ice sheets, what would be the ramifications?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 11:58 am to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:What is the time frame for your hypothetical question?
What would the effects of a 200+ foot rise in sea level be?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:08 pm to LSURussian
quote:
What is the time frame for your hypothetical question?
Two days before the day after tomorrow.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:12 pm to LSURussian
quote:
What is the time frame for your hypothetical question?
Say 100 years.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:15 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
What would the effects of a 200+ foot rise in sea level be? What are the elevations of New York, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Houston, and San Diego among other coastal cities?
Regardless of the cause of the loss of the ice sheets, what would be the ramifications?
How much would temps have to rise for this to happen?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:17 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:Who is predicting that? The IPCC's most doomsday prediction (R8.5) only predicts a 0.53–0.98m rise in the next century. LINK
Estimates are that should just the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melt, the resulting release of water to the oceans would raise sea-level by about 65 meters.
The more reasonable model is 0.28–0.61m over the upcoming century and ~1m by the year 2300.
If we can't adapt to that we suck as a species.
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:19 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:I think you're off by about 100 years.
Say 100 years.
In 200 years, do you think those cities you mentioned, or home sapiens for that matter, will still exist on Earth? I don't.
Our species will either be extinct or colonizing another planet. Do you even Star Trek??
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:22 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
Glaciers sank the Titanic. BAN GLACIERS!!
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:03 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:*coughs*
You have continued to fail to address (or comprehend) that consumers won't continually buy products that economically damage themselves over the long term.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:17 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:Net carbon emission damages the environment. People keep buying it. So you are wrong. Duh
You have continued to fail to address (or comprehend) that consumers won't continually buy products that economically damage themselves over the long term.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:17 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
Who is predicting that? The IPCC's most doomsday prediction
I was just referring to the "hyperbolic doomsday predictions", not necessarily the IPCC.
quote:
If we can't adapt to that we suck as a species.
But at what cost?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:18 pm to LSURussian
LSURussian - does the article you linked to talk about the Antarctic ice sheet - or the Antarctic sea ice?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:21 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
Estimates are that should just the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melt, the resulting release of water to the oceans would raise sea-level by about 65 meters.
I love to see these calculations. Please link.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:21 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Net carbon emission damages the environment.
There is no proof of this....save the left wing "go find the evidence to support your agenda" crowd. Try again!!
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:23 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
The IPCC's most doomsday prediction (R8.5) only predicts a 0.53–0.98m rise in the next century.
quote:
Latest Sea-Level Rise Estimates Still Too Conservative?
Despite the higher sea-level rise projections in the latest IPCC report and improved ability of models to reproduce historical rates of sea-level rise, some respected scientists maintain still that even the new AR5 numbers are too low.
Their argument primarily boils down to two different approaches: process models, which use climate models and physics to estimate sea-level rise, and semi-empirical models, which include evidence of past sea-level rise (mostly during the last ice age) to help determine the relationship between temperatures and sea level. Process models tend to produce lower estimates, empirical models higher ones.
The recently released IPCC Working Group I report discounts empirical models, saying that “Many semi-empirical model projections of global mean sea-level rise are higher than process-based model projections (up to about twice as large), but there is no consensus in the scientific community about their reliability and there is thus low confidence in their projections.” Researchers like Potsdam University Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, who have worked with semi-empirical models, argue that a wholesale discounting of these approaches is erroneous, and represents an overly conservative approach from the IPCC.
For now at least, it is still unclear just what exactly future sea-level rise will be, as uncertainty ranges remain large. At the same time, it is clear that the best estimates of future sea-level rise are considerably higher now than they were just five years ago. The level of sea-level rise by 2100 will mostly depend on which future emissions scenario societies follow, and it’s clear that significant efforts to reduce future emissions, coupled with well thought-out adaptation efforts, can significantly reduce future sea-level rise and its damaging impacts.
LINK
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:26 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:LINK
How High Will It Go?
Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, push sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:39 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and likely will accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the amount is an inexact science. A recent study says we can expect the oceans to rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet (0.8 and 2 meters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, push sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.
The biggest challenge with these models is the cause and effect relationship between the inputs and boundary conditions. Second is defining the inputs and boundary conditions. It's based on the same principle of changing water levels in a tank as a function of temperature however what is different is the tank. The boundary of the tank containing the oceans (our shores) is dynamic. And the inputs into this system are dynamic. Not only are climate inputs important but geologic and cosmic inputs must be included in this dynamic system too.
That's tough to model.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:40 pm to Jim Ignatowski
quote:theres no proof of anything by denialist standards
There is no proof of this....save the left wing "go find the evidence to support your agenda" crowd. Try again!!
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