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re: Glacial melt has tripled in the Amundsen Sea
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:49 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:49 pm to LSURussian
LSURussian - does the article you linked to talk about the Antarctic ice sheet - or the Antarctic sea ice?
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:50 pm to SpidermanTUba
Keep proving you're illiterate. I'm enjoying watching you make a fool out of yourself......again.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:52 pm to SpidermanTUba
I'm going to turn all the lights off in my house forever and walk everywhere to do my part. Your post scared me.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:53 pm to ChEgrad
Chegrad
The models aren't as far off as you think.
The models aren't as far off as you think.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:53 pm to LSURussian
LSURussian - does the article you linked to talk about the Antarctic ice sheet - or the Antarctic sea ice?
Posted on 12/3/14 at 9:54 pm to horndog
quote:if the rest of us don't get on board you'll just be paying for agw twice.
I'm going to turn all the lights off in my house forever and walk everywhere to do my part. Your post scared me.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:39 pm to SpidermanTUba
I can fit past data if I adjust enough parameters. That is what climate scientists have done. They look at past data, adjust the model to fit. Then when future data doesn't conform, they readjust and go back and rerun for the past data and get one that fits past data and new data. Not only do they adjust their models, they adjust the temperature data itself.
I would say when you would like us to significantly harm our economy to reduce warming by 0.1 C, and your models are not within close to 0.1 C, the risk isn't worth the reward.
quote:
From 1998 through 2012, the Met Office estimated that global surface temperatures had warmed by about 0.06°C, whereas the average climate model projection put the value at closer to 0.3°C.
I would say when you would like us to significantly harm our economy to reduce warming by 0.1 C, and your models are not within close to 0.1 C, the risk isn't worth the reward.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:45 pm to ChEgrad
quote:
I can fit past data if I adjust enough parameters. That is what climate scientists have done. They look at past data, adjust the model to fit. Then when future data doesn't conform, they readjust and go back and rerun for the past data and get one that fits past data and new data.
Which parameters have they adjusted to fit past data?
BTW - I thought you said the models don't fit the past data.
quote:
Not only do they adjust their models, they adjust the temperature data itself.
We don't want non-climate signals in our data. If a weather station changes the time of its daily temperature measurements from 4 pm to 8 pm - that doesn't mean the Earth has cooled.
quote:
I would say when you would like us to significantly harm our economy to reduce warming by 0.1 C, and your models are not within close to 0.1 C, the risk isn't worth the reward.
The economic damaged caused by AGW is an ongoing expense that is only to get worse every year. The cost of moving from fossil to non-fossil is a one time expense. Try thinking long term.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:47 pm to ChEgrad
quote:That El Nino is just too tempting, huh?
From 1998
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:53 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:
BTW - I thought you said the models don't fit the past data.
I will confess to not being clear. Models run in 1998 did not predict the long pause in temperature rise. New models looking at past data can be adjusted to fit the data. I can find a polynomial, logarithmic function, or combination thereof, to fit almost any data.
What these models can't do is predict the future.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:40 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:So what you're admitting here... is that emitting CO2 has very little consequence to "the private sector".
the private sector has zero financial incetive to reduce carbon emissions
If the consequences aren't financially damaging (by your own admission) , what do you want them to pay higher taxes for?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:53 am to Iosh
quote:I always thought that sea surface temperature was part of the "climate"
That El Nino is just too tempting, huh?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 8:32 am to Taxing Authority
quote:that's the problem sherlock. They get to pollute for FREE
So what you're admitting here... is that emitting CO2 has very little consequence to "the private sector".
quote:they are damaging, just not to the comapnies doing to emission. It is an externalized cost. [/quote]what do you want them to pay higher taxes for?
If the consequences aren't financially damaging (by your own admission)
[/quote] I don't. Thays josh you are thinking of. Paying to use someone else's property isn't a tax.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 8:37 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
emitting CO2
quote:How much are you paying in taxes to pollute by exhaling?
They get to pollute for FREE
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 8:41 am
Posted on 12/4/14 at 8:38 am to ChEgrad
quote:u could. But then you wouldnt really have a model you'd just have fitted data. I would surely love to know the name of the climate model that abandons the laws of physics in favor of just fitting a polynomial to past data.
I can find a polynomial, logarithmic function, or combination thereof, to fit almost any data.
quote:. Actually Hansen's 87 model predictex the 90s pretty well. He must have built a time machine otherwise I dunno how he could have fitted to future data .
What these models can't do is predict the future.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 8:43 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:Which is of course EXACTLY what the "models" you reference are.
But then you wouldnt really have a model you'd just have fitted data
Posted on 12/4/14 at 8:48 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Which is of course EXACTLY what the "models" you reference are.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 8:51 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
The economic damaged caused by AGW is an ongoing expense that is only to get worse every year. The cost of moving from fossil to non-fossil is a one time expense. Try thinking long term.
Just like buying a house is a one time expense, right????
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:01 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:Whoooosh! That wasn't the point. The point is that it isn't economically damaging.
that's the problem sherlock. They get to pollute for FREE
quote:Thats a nice try. But "the companies" aren't the only part of the transaction. The consumers, and everyone else participate. Consumers aren't going to buy damaging products-just as significant portions of the market have shunned pesticides in food dolphin-safe tuba, or any number of things.
they are damaging, just not to the comapnies doing to emission.
Even though those example hold very little economic benefit, they have moved entire markets. No taxes required. Just consumer demand.
It's pretty obvious why that isn't happening with energy supplies.
quote:Indeed. But you have no claim to CH4+O2 as your property because it turns into CO2.
Paying to use someone else's property isn't a tax
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 9:02 am
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:03 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Actually Hansen's 87 model predictex the 90s pretty well.
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