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Message
FL Early Voting Dem Advantage Drops Below 100k
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:22 am
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:22 am
The Democrat voting advantage has now dropped below 100,000 to 99,641.
This is based on mail in returns and in person voting associated with party affiliation.
Clearly, we do not know who the votes were cast for, but it is a pretty interesting statistic.
On another note, the Democrats have returned ~77% of the mail in ballots requested.
In 2016, there were 20% left on the table that were never returned.
I suspect the total returned will be slightly higher this year, but I think we are nearing the total mail in vote returns for the Democrats.
It all comes down to in person early voting voting and Election Day voting, IMO.
This is based on mail in returns and in person voting associated with party affiliation.
Clearly, we do not know who the votes were cast for, but it is a pretty interesting statistic.
On another note, the Democrats have returned ~77% of the mail in ballots requested.
In 2016, there were 20% left on the table that were never returned.
I suspect the total returned will be slightly higher this year, but I think we are nearing the total mail in vote returns for the Democrats.
It all comes down to in person early voting voting and Election Day voting, IMO.
This post was edited on 10/31/20 at 11:33 am
19
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:24 am to Scruffy
I bet the mail in ballot return is 112% for Democrats
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:25 am to Scruffy
Dems had a 96k advantage in early voting going in to election day 2016.
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:26 am to Scruffy
Kamala is in Miami begging for votes. They arent even pretending to appeal to undecideds. They are just trying to stop the bleeding in their urban strongholds.
But the pollsters still say Biden is taking Florida by 4.
But the pollsters still say Biden is taking Florida by 4.
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:26 am to Scruffy
In FL many of those dems will be for Trump
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:26 am to Scruffy
How large of a lead do they need going into November third to be able to keep up with the advantage Republicans will have with in person voting?
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:27 am to Scruffy
I read an analytics guy say the Dems needed a 360,000 lead heading into election day to have any sort of shot in FL. This is considering the increase in expected election day voting compared to the past. This is also using straight line party affiliation so could sway a little is more Rs vote D or Ds vote R. This is good news
This post was edited on 10/31/20 at 11:29 am
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:28 am to Jake88
I take it back.
They actually were down in mail in votes in 2016.
They actually were down in mail in votes in 2016.
This post was edited on 10/31/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:29 am to LosLobos111
Very true.
Older, southern dems who've never changed party affiliation, and minority dems shifting for Trump.
Older, southern dems who've never changed party affiliation, and minority dems shifting for Trump.
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:31 am to Scruffy
The dems have no shot in Florida. Multiple different references yesterday on why that is
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:31 am to Scruffy
Scruffy still coming from ledge
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:31 am to TigerTatorTots
With the rate the votes are dropping, Republicans might have the advantage come Election Day.
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:32 am to Scruffy
quote:Now THAT is some damn astute election analysis.
It all comes down to in person early voting voting and Election Day voting, IMO.
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:33 am to Scruffy
I've been doing work in the Predictit Florida chat BTFO'ing Dems
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:34 am to LSURussian
quote:
Now THAT is some damn astute election analysis.
People are predicting the high number of mail in votes will be the deciding factor.
That was Rasmussen’s entire point last night.
My point is, I think 80% return will be the threshold and that won’t be enough.
This post was edited on 10/31/20 at 11:35 am
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:38 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:
They are just trying to stop the bleeding in their urban strongholds.
I’m a little confused. I read that early turnout is a problem for Dems and they are in panic.
But then I read a j another thread that this is trending just like 2016 so far, which was waaaaaay too close and had solid turnout for Dems.
The left lost Fla by a nats arse in 2016.
So which is it. Is this coming down to the wire again, or is the left in a panic? Can’t be both, right?
This post was edited on 10/31/20 at 11:55 am
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:39 am to Scruffy
Count 1 more for our president! Just took my wife. Straight R ballot
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:41 am to Scruffy
Don’t forget independents. Voted for Trump yesterday 
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:45 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:
undecideds
Dana Perino said statistics show the closer to election day undecideds tend to vote for the incumbent.
Posted on 10/31/20 at 11:50 am to Scruffy
FL is solidly red.
Socialism doesn’t play well in FL.
Socialism doesn’t play well in FL.
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