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Message
Early Voting is trending Republican's way in Nevada
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:00 am
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:00 am
Nevada has 2 weeks of early voting and early voting has become the norm there, about 60-70% of the total vote tends to happen in the early voting period so based on the early voting stats, you can reasonably guess the result.
Historically Dems slowly and steadily build a lead in the early voting period. Republican voters tend to prefer to vote on election day, so every day over the 2 week early voting period, the Dems slowly and steadily build a net ballot lead. They'll add a few thousand a day to their lead.
At the end of early voting in 2016 Democrats had a net state wide margin of 45,000 more votes than Republicans. The final result was Clinton winning the state by 27,000 votes. Republicans turned out more on election day and probably won the independent vote by a small margin as well, but it wasn't enough to overcome the deficit.
This cycle is very different. Dems quickly jumped out to a 50,000 net lead thanks to mail in voting and were celebrating because historically Dems lead in early voting just grows more day by day.
However Republicans are actually winning the early in person vote in Nevada every day. The mail in returns have dried up and the in person voting early voting has favored Republicans, which never happens. The Dem lead statewide has actually been cut to 45K after 5 days of early voting. Republicans are now the ones picking up a few thousand net votes every day. If this trend continues over the next week Nevada will definitely be in play. If the trend reverses and Democrats begin padding their lead again, then Dems will probably hold it.
Regardless, things are trending the right way for now.
Historically Dems slowly and steadily build a lead in the early voting period. Republican voters tend to prefer to vote on election day, so every day over the 2 week early voting period, the Dems slowly and steadily build a net ballot lead. They'll add a few thousand a day to their lead.
At the end of early voting in 2016 Democrats had a net state wide margin of 45,000 more votes than Republicans. The final result was Clinton winning the state by 27,000 votes. Republicans turned out more on election day and probably won the independent vote by a small margin as well, but it wasn't enough to overcome the deficit.
This cycle is very different. Dems quickly jumped out to a 50,000 net lead thanks to mail in voting and were celebrating because historically Dems lead in early voting just grows more day by day.
However Republicans are actually winning the early in person vote in Nevada every day. The mail in returns have dried up and the in person voting early voting has favored Republicans, which never happens. The Dem lead statewide has actually been cut to 45K after 5 days of early voting. Republicans are now the ones picking up a few thousand net votes every day. If this trend continues over the next week Nevada will definitely be in play. If the trend reverses and Democrats begin padding their lead again, then Dems will probably hold it.
Regardless, things are trending the right way for now.
11
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:01 am to PEEPO
Do you have to be a resident of Nevada to vote there? I'll be there next week and if illegals can vote then I should be able to as well.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:02 am to PEEPO
If Trump is surging with Latinos as everyone seems to think.... How many of those do you think might be registered as Ds?
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:05 am to Here4Qthread
Yeaht hat's really an unknown the early voting stats can't tell you.
What about cross over voting? Are more Dem's voting Republicans or vice versa?
Who is winning the independents and by how much? etc.
What about cross over voting? Are more Dem's voting Republicans or vice versa?
Who is winning the independents and by how much? etc.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:07 am to Here4Qthread
I've posted this in other threads but my wife (no pic) is Latina and registered Democrat. She early voted yesterday and voted for Trump. Her whole family outside of one cousin (freeloader young kid) is voting Trump this year.
I'm a registered independent and will be voting Trump on Friday.
We have a shot here in NV.
I'm a registered independent and will be voting Trump on Friday.
We have a shot here in NV.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:08 am to LasVegasTiger
quote:
We have a shot here in NV.
Thanks for a heads up from ground zero. I think Trump pulls out NV by half a point.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:08 am to PEEPO
historically I would say more republicans cross over in voting but that has flipped since 2016
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:09 am to LasVegasTiger
quote:
I've posted this in other threads but my wife (no pic) is Latina and registered Democrat. She early voted yesterday and voted for Trump. Her whole family outside of one cousin (freeloader young kid) is voting Trump this year.
I'm a registered independent and will be voting Trump on Friday.
We have a shot here in NV.
we never got that run in when i came in brother.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:09 am to PEEPO
Nevada resident who's voting later today.
Sisolak has done wonders for the Republican Party here.
Though in fairness, we no longer have the country's worst unemployment rate. Hawaii shot past us for that.
Sisolak has done wonders for the Republican Party here.
Though in fairness, we no longer have the country's worst unemployment rate. Hawaii shot past us for that.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:09 am to PEEPO
quote:
Republicans are actually winning the early in person vote in Nevada every day. The mail in returns have dried up and the in person voting early voting has favored Republicans, which never happens. The Dem lead statewide has actually been cut to 45K after 5 days of early voting. Republicans are now the ones picking up a few thousand net votes every day. If this trend continues over the next week Nevada will definitely be in play.
NEVADA IS IN PLAY.
Trump landslide
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:10 am to PEEPO
How does anyone even know?
In my state we don’t have to register or affiliate with a party, unless we’re voting in a primary election.
Are they collecting these data from exit poll interviews?
In my state we don’t have to register or affiliate with a party, unless we’re voting in a primary election.
Are they collecting these data from exit poll interviews?
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:12 am to PEEPO
They count votes before Election Day?? and release them??
Do they do exit polls on early voting??
Do they do exit polls on early voting??
This post was edited on 10/21/20 at 9:20 am
Posted on 10/21/20 at 9:12 am to 3nOut
quote:
we never got that run in when i came in brother.
Next time for sure. I picked it back up few months ago and getting longer runs in now that the weather is cooling off.
But yes, I'm seeing way more Trump signs around town than in 2016. Who knows, but I'm hoping.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 10:08 am to ChineseBandit58
They don't count ballots until election day. For states with party registration they know how many # of each party are voting but they don't know who for.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 10:12 am to PEEPO
Ralston is the guy to follow for Nevada - even though he’s a partisan he is honest about what he’s seeing. Seems somewhat promising what he tweeted....
Blog updated 15 minutes ago... LINK
Blog updated 15 minutes ago... LINK
quote:
Updated, 7:45 AM, 10/21/2020 Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are with the data I have – and I am hampered by a lack of mail ballot returns from Clark and rural early/mail numbers: Clark Dem firewall: 41,000 Washoe Dem lead: 11,000 Statewide Dem lead: 48,000 (estimated after rurals come in) Remember these numbers will change once I get more, later this morning, I hope. This is the best available data I have. ----Continue to keep in mind that this is an upside-down year – even in the red wave of 2014, the Republicans did not win Clark the way they had prior in the last two days in early voting. On the other hand, the Dems have never swamped the GOP in mail the way they have this cycle, which has much more than offset the in-person losses. So far. The mail ballots seem to have slowed down, but it’s unclear if it’s just a tabulation slowdown or an actual change in volume. Again, we will know more later.
This post was edited on 10/21/20 at 10:13 am
Posted on 10/21/20 at 10:21 am to PEEPO
quote:
Early Voting is trending Republican's way in Nevada
Do you have a link to these stats?
According to this link...
the Dems' lead among voters registered to a particular party is still about 50,000 votes.
You can scroll down and see the totals for mail-in vs. early in person. About 215,000 have voted by mail in...78% of 276,326...and only about 61,000 have voted early in person.
Then when you click for party registration, you see the percentages for Dem and Rep. Given the fact that the difference is still 49,739, Republicans really haven't made up any significant ground at all when even you add early in-person voting.
Then you have almost 61,000 who have voted either way who have no party affiliation at all. We can speculate who they might have voted for, but there's really no way of knowing.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 3:53 pm to BamaGradinTn
Latest update I see as of 1PM on 10/21 is Dem net 50,429.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 4:01 pm to igoringa
The problem with figuring this out is no one knows what percentage of Democrats are going to vote early or mail in.
If 80% of them vote early or by mail, how meaningful is their lead?
I'm sure the data people will try to figure it out, but no one has a fricking clue in 2020 what is going to happen on November 3rd.
If 80% of them vote early or by mail, how meaningful is their lead?
I'm sure the data people will try to figure it out, but no one has a fricking clue in 2020 what is going to happen on November 3rd.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 4:13 pm to TigerCruise
quote:
The problem with figuring this out is no one knows what percentage of Democrats are going to vote early or mail in.
If 80% of them vote early or by mail, how meaningful is their lead?
I'm sure the data people will try to figure it out, but no one has a fricking clue in 2020 what is going to happen on November 3rd.
Obviously this has been a very...um...odd year. There absolutely could be tremendous voter enthusiasm for the Dems. But, I think we would all agree at this point that Dem voters are the most likely to be terrified (due to the "pandemic") to show up to vote on election day. Thus, a very significant and historic amount of the Dem vote could come in BEFORE election day simply because they don't want to show up on election day.
I fully expect Dems to have a big "lead" when early voting is over. (If not, I think they could be in very big trouble). Then, the question will be how many of them are left to vote on election day? It may be a case of them shooting their wad early
Posted on 10/21/20 at 4:15 pm to Here4Qthread
In Miami. Cars were counted by helicopter.
It took 3 hours just to get onto the route. 55,000 counted at the meeting point, another 20,000 joining the line.
For you Biden voters, that's 75,000 vehicles caravaning for Donald J Trump in MIAMI FLORIDA!!
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