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Started By
Message
Donald Trump is deeply unpopular
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:06 am
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:06 am
- His approval/disapproval is in the low 40s/ low 50s for almost the entirety of his presidency.
-The polling numbers were validated by a blue wave in the midterm election where the democrats won 40 seats in the house and won by ~7.5% in the popular vote.
- The midterm turnout was sky-high. Democrats won ~60.5 million votes in the midterm compared to Trump’s 63 million in the 2016 general. For reference, the GOP picked up 63 seats in 2010 on 44.8 million votes and with a ~5.5% margin. However, GOP turnout was also high preventing this from being a totally unprecedented bloodbath.
- Even though Trump is unpopular, he has the geographic advantage of the Electoral College. You can bet that Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020 unless the Dem candidate is worse than Hillary. Still, Trump only needs to win in the right places to win the election. Florida and Ohio held in the midterms for the GOP, which is a big deal. Trump should be in the hunt come 2020 so long as he doesn’t frick up tremendously and the economy doesn’t crater.
ETA: All polling, stats, etc from Nate Silver and 538.
-The polling numbers were validated by a blue wave in the midterm election where the democrats won 40 seats in the house and won by ~7.5% in the popular vote.
- The midterm turnout was sky-high. Democrats won ~60.5 million votes in the midterm compared to Trump’s 63 million in the 2016 general. For reference, the GOP picked up 63 seats in 2010 on 44.8 million votes and with a ~5.5% margin. However, GOP turnout was also high preventing this from being a totally unprecedented bloodbath.
- Even though Trump is unpopular, he has the geographic advantage of the Electoral College. You can bet that Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020 unless the Dem candidate is worse than Hillary. Still, Trump only needs to win in the right places to win the election. Florida and Ohio held in the midterms for the GOP, which is a big deal. Trump should be in the hunt come 2020 so long as he doesn’t frick up tremendously and the economy doesn’t crater.
ETA: All polling, stats, etc from Nate Silver and 538.
This post was edited on 11/19/18 at 10:25 am
34
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:07 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
You can bet that Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020 unless the Dem candidate is worse than Hillary.
Pretty much a given huh?
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:07 am to inelishaitrust
I like him.....so there’s that!
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:07 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
a blue wave
Nope
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:07 am to inelishaitrust
You mean where most candidates that he stumped for won?
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:07 am to Schmelly
quote:
Pretty much a given huh?
You’d think, but I wouldn’t put it past them.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:08 am to Havoc
Hillary 4.0 will be better than Hillary 3.0. It’s like, science
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:08 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
Donald Trump is deeply unpopular
quote:
However, GOP turnout was also high
Wow, this is some groundbreaking stuff in this thread. Liberals hate him and R's love him, thanks for letting me know. You should win the Pulitzer.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:09 am to inelishaitrust
Plagiarism
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:09 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
-The polling numbers were validated by a blue wave in the midterm election where the democrats won 40 seats in the house and won by ~7.5% in the popular vote.
This post was edited on 11/19/18 at 10:23 am
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:10 am to Schmelly
Hillary couldn’t dunk on Trump for the way he treats women. The 2020 candidate likely will. Not sure what effect this will have, but there’s something that they’ll pounce on.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:10 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
Even though Trump is unpopular, he has the geographic advantage of the Electoral College. You can bet that Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020 unless the Dem candidate is worse than Hillary. Still, Trump only needs to win in the right places to win the election. Florida and Ohio held in the midterms for the GOP, which is a big deal. Trump should be in the hunt come 2020 so long as he doesn’t frick up tremendously and the economy doesn’t crater.
....And the popular vote STILL doesn't matter in a Presidential election...
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:11 am to inelishaitrust
Gotta love dem delusion. You underperformed ALL expectations in the midterms. Top dems in the media declared it a disappointment, yet we're right back to calling the purple shart a blue wave.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:12 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
You can bet that Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020
Why do people talk about this like it means anything? Trump could have won the pop vote if he would have campaigned and spent money in places like Boston, NY, LA. It's like bragging that you won time of possession in a FB game but lost by 21.
This post was edited on 11/19/18 at 10:13 am
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:12 am to inelishaitrust
Thanks for the info Toddy
This post was edited on 11/19/18 at 10:12 am
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:12 am to inelishaitrust
Please run kamala. Racist babble everywhere.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:12 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
Donald Trump is deeply unpopular
- His approval/disapproval is in the low 40s/ low 50s for almost the entirety of his presidency.
-The polling numbers were validated by a blue wave in the midterm election where the democrats won 40 seats in the house and won by ~7.5% in the popular vote.
- The midterm turnout was sky-high. Democrats won ~60.5 million votes in the midterm compared to Trump’s 63 million in the 2016 general. For reference, the GOP picked up 63 seats in 2010 on 44.8 million votes and with a ~5.5% margin. However, GOP turnout was also high preventing this from being a totally unprecedented bloodbath.
- Even though Trump is unpopular, he has the geographic advantage of the Electoral College. You can bet that Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020 unless the Dem candidate is worse than Hillary. Still, Trump only needs to win in the right places to win the election. Florida and Ohio held in the midterms for the GOP, which is a big deal. Trump should be in the hunt come 2020 so long as he doesn’t frick up tremendously and the economy doesn’t crater.
TL;DR: Orange. Man. Bad.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:13 am to inelishaitrust
I'd say he is very polarizing and passion-stirring. Not so much more or less approved / disapproved as compared to other recent POTUSes (POTii? 
)
As I said...he stirs passions on BOTH sides. The change of House seats is in line with normal mid-term results and is probably healthy. I find the DEM pickups to be pretty schizophrenic: They won some seats with "military vets who vow to NOT support Pelosi because she is so far left" AND won some seats with "socialists who vow to not support Pelosi because she isn't left ENOUGH!"
The common thread is "not Trump". And, the common thread of the Senate REP wins is "not NOT Trump"
Passions are high
) quote:
Democrats won ~60.5 million votes in the midterm compared to Trump’s 63 million in the 2016 general. For reference, the GOP picked up 63 seats in 2010 on 44.8 million votes and with a ~5.5% margin. However, GOP turnout was also high preventing this from being a totally unprecedented bloodbath.
As I said...he stirs passions on BOTH sides. The change of House seats is in line with normal mid-term results and is probably healthy. I find the DEM pickups to be pretty schizophrenic: They won some seats with "military vets who vow to NOT support Pelosi because she is so far left" AND won some seats with "socialists who vow to not support Pelosi because she isn't left ENOUGH!"
The common thread is "not Trump". And, the common thread of the Senate REP wins is "not NOT Trump"
Passions are high
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:13 am to Havoc
quote:
You mean where most candidates that he stumped for won?
I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in that. I mean Ted Cruz won by 2.5% which is well below what I imagine GOP expectations in Texas are. John Tester and Joe Mancin won. The only impressive win that the GOP pulled off was in Florida where Rick Scott won by 10k votes. Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota are all safe red seats where incumbent Dems beat really bad GOP candidates in 2012.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 10:14 am to inelishaitrust
He'll have to be seen with the popular crowd more if he wants to win homecoming king.
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