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Does world calamity hang in the balance if the SOH is closed?
Posted on 6/20/26 at 10:57 am
Posted on 6/20/26 at 10:57 am
I hear this narrative that if oil were to go to $200 and beyond that a world recession/depression would be triggered and that millions in especially poor places would die. That fertilizer, medicine, basic food needs would be severely curtailed.
Since no one has a crystal ball, we don’t know for sure. How much of this scary talk is purely for persuasive purposes and how much is genuine?
Since no one has a crystal ball, we don’t know for sure. How much of this scary talk is purely for persuasive purposes and how much is genuine?
17
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:00 am to TrueTiger
100% lock Iran can bring the global economy to its knees by closing the SOH and keeping it closed. The world economy depends on the free flow of oil and Iran, in its current state, is able to interrupt this free flow fully enough and long enough to bring the global economy to its knees.
signed---------- SFP
signed---------- SFP
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:00 am to TrueTiger
Trump should get Halliburton to pump it full of sand and pave it. That would end the conversation once and for all.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:02 am to TrueTiger
The US if need be could close the door to the world for several months and survive quite easily, well most Americans could but there are the mentally fragile who would succumb to their fears and TDS.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:21 am to Bass Tiger
quote:
The US if need be could close the door to the world for several months and survive quite easily
This. As messed up as things here are, it's too easy to forget how blessed we are to live in such a resource-rich land with so much petroleum, technology, agriculture, ranching and manufacturing.
People are too fragile to pay attention to any of that though. I distinctly remember college students absolutely melting when we were having our trade negotiations with China, because they thought they weren't going to be able to buy their Lululemon apparel. The irony of privilege was completely lost to them.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:22 am to Bass Tiger
Crap, double posted. My apologies.
This post was edited on 6/20/26 at 11:24 am
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:23 am to Bass Tiger
quote:
The US if need be could close the door to the world for several months and survive quite easily,
Being that U.S. is so closely divided, and the democrats are nearly full on communists who would usher in the destruction of the Republic, and being that serious hardship would get them elected, I’m not so confident.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:24 am to TrueTiger
According to SunTzuPro, yes.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:28 am to TrueTiger
If sub-continent Asia experiencing a famine from lack of diesel to cultivate crops is a calamity, then yes.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:37 am to TrueTiger
quote:
The US if need be could close the door to the world for several months and survive quite easily,
Being that U.S. is so closely divided, and the democrats are nearly full on communists who would usher in the destruction of the Republic, and being that serious hardship would get them elected, I’m not so confident.
I think a majority of Americans could tough it out for quite some time if the economy were to take a severe dive in the pursuit of decimating the Islamic Regime's economy. It would be interesting to see how long street level Iranians would tolerate month after month of little food, failing infrastructure and increased authoritarianism.
In the US a large percentage of the mentally fragile and those who suffer from TDS, along with those who cower in fear when facing any adversity in life, they're all generally on the left side of the political spectrum.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:46 am to Bass Tiger
quote:
In the US a large percentage of the mentally fragile and those who suffer from TDS, along with those who cower in fear when facing any adversity in life, they're all generally on the left side of the political spectrum.
Like you, I believe that disciplined Americans would survive.
But being that there would be high hardship levels that is perfect fuel for communists, and that you only need about 20% in your population to cause a civil war, we would have a lot of death right here.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:50 am to TrueTiger
Iran overplayed their hand with the SoH. The gulf states are building alternative routes to move oil, and this will significantly lessen the impact in a few years. In addition to new east/west pipelines, Syria has been actively developing their capabilities to handle trucked oil and sees this as a way to improve their economy.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:56 am to TrueTiger
quote:
How much of this scary talk is purely for persuasive purposes and how much is genuine?
The CEOs of Exxon and Chevron were pretty clear about it.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:56 am to TrueTiger
quote:
hear this narrative that if oil were to go to $200 and beyond that a world recession/depression would be triggered and that millions in especially poor places would die.
So, gas would cost more but other than that what’s the downside?
Posted on 6/20/26 at 11:56 am to Free888
Drones can destroy pipelines and pumping stations too.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 12:02 pm to TrueTiger
quote:
In the US a large percentage of the mentally fragile and those who suffer from TDS, along with those who cower in fear when facing any adversity in life, they're all generally on the left side of the political spectrum.
Like you, I believe that disciplined Americans would survive.
But being that there would be high hardship levels that is perfect fuel for communists, and that you only need about 20% in your population to cause a civil war, we would have a lot of death right here.
The difficulties facing the American people from a severe and protracted recession or depression would certainly be a good barometer to measure if this constitutional republic still has a soul, a heart and guts.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 12:05 pm to TrueTiger
The SOH has been vulnerable for decades. It’s quite funny how many people have just learned about it.
I would argue it is currently the safest it has ever been since the radical takeover of Iran considering the amount of US firepower in the area.
I would argue it is currently the safest it has ever been since the radical takeover of Iran considering the amount of US firepower in the area.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 12:05 pm to Free888
quote:
Iran overplayed their hand with the SoH. The gulf states are building alternative routes to move oil, and this will significantly lessen the impact in a few years. In addition to new east/west pipelines, Syria has been actively developing their capabilities to handle trucked oil and sees this as a way to improve their economy.
Are they missle proof?
Posted on 6/20/26 at 12:06 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Drones can destroy pipelines and pumping stations too.
At which point the US would no longer care about preserving Iran’s infrastructure.
Posted on 6/20/26 at 12:33 pm to Bob_Sugar
quote:
The SOH has been vulnerable for decades. It’s quite funny how many people have just learned about it. I would argue it is currently the safest it has ever been since the radical takeover of Iran considering the amount of US firepower in the area
Hopefully some of the people who have learned about it include Irans neighbors who need to either find alternatives or not let their neighbor Iran obtain this much control again now that they’ve been knocked down a few hundred pegs by the US
As well as countries dependent upon the SOH almost or exclusively for their (cheap) supply of oil. Hopefully they’ve recognized how dangerous it is to their well being to be this ultimately dependent on a nation that is nobody’s friend.
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