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Started By
Message
re: Diamond Princess Final numbers:3711 passengers,712 positive ,7 deaths
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:02 pm to Pettifogger
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:02 pm to Pettifogger
I did better, I quoted it.
0
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:05 pm to Tiguar
quote:first, according to the cdc for 2019, the mortality rate for seasonal flu was 0.135%. That makes the wuflu motality less than 5x of seasonal flu, not 50x. 50x would be over 6%. Second, as more people are tested, the mortality rate will almost certainly drop moving the number much closer to the seasonal flu.
0.5% mortality is 50x more deaths than the flu
Moreover, this flu apparently doesn't care for the youngest people making it even less of a problem logistically
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:11 pm to Tiguar
quote:Are you sure YOU understand percentages?
Virus is just another example of just how stupid the average American is and no one understands percentages.
0.5% mortality is 50x more deaths than the flu
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:22 pm to phil4bama
quote:Then why are we trying to do it with 350 million people?
Because that's virtually impossible to do. That's almost 50 million people you want quarantine
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:34 pm to bfniii
I posted facts and someone downvoted my post. What is wrong people
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:40 pm to bfniii
quote:
Second, as more people are tested
Where are we on the testing kits? Do we have more of them now to really get the ball rolling on testing? I was out of town on a camping/turkey hunting trip this weekend and pretty much unplugged from updates on all of this
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:52 pm to RD Dawg
Your reading comprehension sucks. Crew members were infected and people of all ages were infected as well.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:55 pm to Oizers
quote:
If you apply those rates to cities, would it overwhelm the healthcare system?
Do all cities have the same median age of a cruise ship, during a school semester?
Not even remotely close!!
Posted on 3/16/20 at 12:59 pm to Pettifogger
quote:ISn't the common flu around 14-15% per season in the US?
I think those infection numbers are pretty bad. 20% is serious, IMO.
And that's not on a cruise ship with everyone in close quarters.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:02 pm to RT1941
quote:
That's what I'd like to know as well. There's no way a cruise ship had the medical capabilities to test 3,711 passengers, treat 712 positive cases (if they had symptoms), and deal with 7 deaths on board the ship.
The average cruise ship has a doctor or 2 on board and a couple of RN's with a domiciliary to treat patients. They do not have the man power or facilities to test & treat that many people.
The ship was docked and medical professionals came on board and tested everyone. If someone tested positive they were taken off the ship to a hospital. So basically the most preventative and unlimited medical care. Plus after a week countries started to fly passengers home to isolate them there, preventing more spread.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:14 pm to Pettifogger
quote:It's encouraging data, but as you are hinting at here - perhaps ironically, the social distancing in the contained ship environment was probably much higher than it will get in gen pop.
Well it likely overstates the significance of air on the cruise ship as well
It's unlikely that the virus circulated through the vents, but it does reflect the close proximity of people eating and drinking and walking around - more akin to a crowded city.
The study also doesn't appear to account for the close and immediate attention the cruisers got. On the plus side, as OP indicates, there probably weren't a bunch of missed cases. However, they were likely caught fairly early and treated in an environment where they could get a ton of attention the rest of us won't have in the coming weeks.
20% infection rate in close proximity and 1% death rate is probably realistic. But I would certainly differ from OP in his idea that it's not all that significant.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:16 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:You understand you're off by an order of magnitude, right? Your morbidity rate estimates imply 120K - 180K deaths.
so if 60m infections, 12k to 18k deaths is likely a worst case scenario and very much in line with H1N1
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:22 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
and people of all ages were infected as well.
WTF?
quote:
death
All over 70+
DEATHS were over 70+ dumbass
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:29 pm to moneyg
quote:
Do you really think the post you were replying to was suggesting that 58 year olds aren't important people?
The post was suggesting that, given that the average age was 58, it wasn't representative of the general population. This is what emotional thinking does to people.
As my post FULLY states, if the illness is impacting 60 year olds at a significant level, (.5%, 1%, etc.) this will have actual impacts on our everyday lives. My post completely recognized that 58 was an average, and that the full value of the mortality rate peak wouldn't be recognized at that age, most likely.
Again, you guys need to get a fricking grip.
I agree that emotional thinking - like you coming in here with some bizarre and laughably misguided windmill to joust at - creates strange arguments.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:41 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
perhaps ironically, the social distancing in the contained ship environment was probably much higher than it will get in gen pop.
Maybe but this is what one Doctor said about the Diamond Princess quarintine
quote:
Dr Amesh Adalja, with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Business Insider that quarantining passengers on a cruise ship allows “the virus to literally pick them off one-by-one”.
“The whole idea of the cruise ship quarantine was ill-conceived
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:44 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
and people of all ages were infected as well.
How many between the ages of 0-30? You know a group makes up over a third of the US population
Posted on 3/16/20 at 1:58 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
If 60 year olds are vulnerable in significant ways,
You left out a huge descriptor "with comorbidity health issues". 58 year olds running major companies aren't doing so with major health issues
Quit posting on this topic. Youre either purposefully driving the hype, or are just ignorant
Posted on 3/16/20 at 2:09 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
58 year olds running major companies aren't doing so with major health issues
Talk about shifting goalposts
Posted on 3/16/20 at 2:15 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Talk about shifting goalposts
Now I'm going with just ignorant
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