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Message
re: Diamond Princess Final numbers:3711 passengers,712 positive ,7 deaths
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:05 am to moneyg
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:05 am to moneyg
quote:
Be specific. Where in the United States do you think the cruise ship would be a reasonable model?
Places where people are within 3-6 feet of one another a lot?
If you think of places where this occurs on a cruise, I'm sure you can find tons of places where this occurs outside of a cruise.
I would tend to think a cruise about the worst transmission situation you could find, but there are probably others and I don't really know how to compare them (as I said). Crowded metro/subway trains? Bars? Concerts?
1
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:07 am to Pettifogger
quote:
and finding a few pieces of evidence t
Come on, man. This is totally disingenuous and you know it. A few pieces of evidence?! Christ almighty there isn't any better evidence possible.
A cruise ship is a perfect model for worse case scenario. The only way you could get a better case study showing the viruses spread rate is if you had someone who was positive stand in a room and send people in one after the other to have sex with them.
"A few pieces of evidence." Haha!
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:07 am to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Dude the average age on the ship was 58.
58 year olds run a ton of the world's largest companies, are community leaders, politicians, church leaders, etc.
If 60 year olds are vulnerable in significant ways, that impacts real people, not people who are critically ill in nursing homes. People on cruises clearly skew older, but they also probably skew more active.
Anyway, I don't think 60 year olds will die at really high levels from this, but .5% or 1% is pretty significant.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:09 am to BoarEd
quote:
A cruise ship is a perfect model for worse case scenario.
How did the cruise ship handle the outbreak?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:10 am to RD Dawg
Yup i went on record here a week ago saying these ships should still be out at sea sailing in circles. That was the correct approach and of course, the one we didn’t take
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:10 am to RD Dawg
Applied nation wide, that would be approximately 646,000 deaths.
That’s pretty bad
That’s pretty bad
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:11 am to BoarEd
quote:
Come on, man. This is totally disingenuous and you know it. A few pieces of evidence?! Christ almighty there isn't any better evidence possible.
It's not really useful to try and discuss shite with people like you. You don't want honesty or discussion, you want to shortcut your way to being right. You called this a flu, something that is objectively not true according to pretty much every study (including this one). So calling anyone else "disingenuous" is pretty absurd.
This is, in every possible way, "a few pieces of evidence." Your argument is that it's the best possible evidence, and it could be.
But it is "a few pieces of evidence" it's one study conducted from one contained test group and then extrapolated. I personally hope it proves accurate, but there are a ton of competing studies with different results and neither you nor I are particularly well equipped to call one accurate and another flawed.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:12 am to kingbob
quote:
Applied nation wide, that would be approximately 646,000 deaths.
What is up with these people? This is craziness.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:12 am to BoarEd
quote:
There's quite a difference between a city and a cruise ship.
Please explain.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:12 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Once again, my point is that .5% or 1% death rate is very epidemiologically significant
...on a cruise ship.
Of course it's significant. But, on a cruise ship, it's not necessarily significant. If we are ultimately seeing those rates in other places, of course it's significant.
quote:
Also, the idea that it's absurd to think we'll come anywhere close to 1% mortality just isn't a reasonable position
It's absurd to use the cruise ship as a guide to what we will see.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:14 am to moneyg
quote:
It's absurd to use the cruise ship as a guide to what we will see.
Which includes using it as a "worst case scenario."
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:15 am to Pettifogger
quote:
I have no idea how to compare a cruise ship and large, dense cities
You seemed to be willing to do that just a few posts ago...
quote:
it does reflect the close proximity of people eating and drinking and walking around - more akin to a crowded city
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:16 am to moneyg
quote:
Of course it's significant. But, on a cruise ship, it's not necessarily significant. If we are ultimately seeing those rates in other places, of course it's significant.
The entire point of the article is the extrapolation of a .5% mortality rate in China that varies higher/lower in places.
That's not from me, it's from the OP article
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:17 am to Oizers
quote:
If you apply those rates to cities, would it overwhelm the healthcare system?
Yes. It would. Completely and totally. If the whole city is exposed.
For example, St. Louis would have 500,000 cases and over 10,000 would need a vent. 2,500-5,000 dead.
This is still an almost worst case scenario. But it’s far lower than the worst case scenarios that state health officials were tossing around.
It also would dwarf what we’re seeing in other countries. So it’s not likely that the worse case scenario is going to be the real world scenario.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:19 am to Pettifogger
quote:
You called this a flu,
This is simply not true. I said that as the numbers are tallied that I believe it will fall in line with the common flu numbers. As more and more people are tested, the numbers go down and down.
Again, the cruise ship is a worst case scenario case study. These numbers will be higher than numbers elsewhere. To continue to ignore this is, in fact, disingenuous.
quote:
It's not really useful to try and discuss shite with people like you.
Funny. I feel the exact same about "people like you."
We will see who was right about this.
Common flu affects 20-40% of the population and that is including herd immunity + vaccines.
This cruise ship case shows infectious rates lower than that at 19.9% infectious rate in close quartered contact with infected persons touching the same surfaces and breathing the same air.
Now look at the # of flu deaths vs the number of corona deaths over the same 60 day period. There is no comparison.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:19 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Places where people are within 3-6 feet of one another a lot?
Now you are changing your statement. I'll clarify my question...where, geographically, do you think the cruise ship is a reasonable model?
Obviously a cruise ship might be similar to places in a city. But, the duration that people are in those places won't be similar.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:20 am to moneyg
quote:
You seemed to be willing to do that just a few posts ago...
I'm perfectly willing to buy into the idea that a cruise ship seems to reflect density in some manner
I have no idea how to genuinely compare the two. To me, it seems likely that transmission that occurs at 3-6 feet would allow the cruise study to show us some useful insights regarding transmission in dense urban areas.
To the extent I use any definite language it's either A) from convenience or sloppiness or B) taken from supposed experts.
My only firm positions are that this is a significant event, it's not comparable to the flu in a useful/meaningful way and that some level of the measures taken are necessary/helpful. I leave room for the idea that some overreaction is occurring, but I don't think I have the knowledge to point to where that line is.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:20 am to DucTape
quote:
Please explain.
Keep reading the thread. It's been explained. Unless you want me to describe you the physical differences between a cruise ship and a city. One floats on water. The other is on dry land, for starters.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:22 am to Argonaut
quote:
Which includes using it as a "worst case scenario."
No, that actually makes sense. Reasonable people can agree/disagree on whether the cruise ship is representative of anything. But, considering it as a possible limit is meaningful.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 10:23 am to BoarEd
quote:
Now look at the # of flu deaths vs the number of corona deaths over the same 60 day period. There is no comparison.
And again, this is in line with my prior point about your desire (lack thereof) for honest discussion.
How does a flu present in larger numbers for a longer period with higher infected rates provide a valid comparison?
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