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Message
Democrat lead in FL early voting slips below 10%
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:10 pm
Eight days ago, Florida had processed just over 2 million ballots and Democrat ballots outnumbered Republican ballots by 20.1%.
Now today, after just 3.5 days of early IN PERSON voting, that lead has shrunk to just 9.9%
DEMOCRAT PARTY BALLOT ADVANTAGE BY DAY:
10/14- 20.1%
10/15- 19.5%
10/16- 19.0%
10/17- 18.7%
10/18- 18.7%
10/19- 16.1% <-- 1st day of early, in-person voting
10/20- 13.4%
10/21- 10.9%
10/22- 9.9% (and dropping by the hour)
The GOP Early-In-Person voting is smashing expectations.... and each passing day looks stronger than the one prior. If this keeps up for another few days, even the media is going to be forced to start sounding the alarm that Trump is on pace to win Florida in hopes they can try to drive out more Biden votes in the last few days.
One of the issues they have with pretending that Biden has an insurmountable lead is that when it becomes obvious he's losing a key battleground state, they have to change their narrative. The GOP vote is so strong right now its likely going to force them to do just that prior to election day.
Now today, after just 3.5 days of early IN PERSON voting, that lead has shrunk to just 9.9%
DEMOCRAT PARTY BALLOT ADVANTAGE BY DAY:
10/14- 20.1%
10/15- 19.5%
10/16- 19.0%
10/17- 18.7%
10/18- 18.7%
10/19- 16.1% <-- 1st day of early, in-person voting
10/20- 13.4%
10/21- 10.9%
10/22- 9.9% (and dropping by the hour)
The GOP Early-In-Person voting is smashing expectations.... and each passing day looks stronger than the one prior. If this keeps up for another few days, even the media is going to be forced to start sounding the alarm that Trump is on pace to win Florida in hopes they can try to drive out more Biden votes in the last few days.
One of the issues they have with pretending that Biden has an insurmountable lead is that when it becomes obvious he's losing a key battleground state, they have to change their narrative. The GOP vote is so strong right now its likely going to force them to do just that prior to election day.
11
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:13 pm to BHMKyle
Gonna be awesome when Trump wins the popular vote because hundreds of thousands of Dem mail-in ballots get tossed for one reason or another.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:13 pm to BHMKyle
I thought things like party affiliation aren't supposed to be released prior to Election Day, because they can influence how voters behave. Is this a leak?
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:19 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:21 pm to Hamma1122
quote:
That won’t happen
It is a real possibility.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:23 pm to BHMKyle
Thread on this same page has Republicans leading Florida by 10)K+.
Am I reading this wrong or are you 2 not on same page?
Am I reading this wrong or are you 2 not on same page?
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:25 pm to Tridentds
Does this include VBM and the other thread doesn’t?
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:26 pm to Scruffy
Was wondering the same.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:26 pm to Tridentds
Democrats lead mail in votes and totals, but Republicans are winning the in person early vote and cutting the lead on total votes.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:26 pm to Tridentds
Only concern is that Repubs are shifting some Election Day vote to early vote. Still looks good for Trump, but I’m not as optimistic as Larry S on a complete FL landslide for that reason.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:28 pm to BHMKyle
It's unlikely that there will be a large number of registered Reps who will vote for Biden.
It is at least somewhat likely that there will be a large number of registered Dems who will vote for Trump.
It is at least somewhat likely that there will be a large number of registered Dems who will vote for Trump.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:28 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
even the media is going to be forced to start sounding the alarm that Trump is on pace to win Florida in hopes they can try to drive out more Biden votes in the last few days.
And Biden can't be bothered with leaving his house, much less hitting the campaign trail in all these states to give people a reason to get out the vote for him.
It's really unbelievable that a presidential candidate is literally just chilling at home for days at a time less than two weeks before the election. You know a lot of dems are secretly thinking what the frick are we doing pushing this guy to get one of the most demanding, stressful jobs in the world.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:29 pm to elposter
quote:
It's really unbelievable that a presidential candidate is literally just chilling at home for days at a time less than two weeks before the election.
This is approaching the strategy of Dewey in 1948. How did that turn out?
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:42 pm to Janky
Delusional but whatever you say!!
This post was edited on 10/22/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:44 pm to Hamma1122
K
Posted on 10/22/20 at 12:49 pm to BHMKyle
Florida isn’t even in question.
All red.
MN, PA, and WI are this year’s focus.
All red.
MN, PA, and WI are this year’s focus.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 1:14 pm to AnyonebutSteelers
quote:
I thought things like party affiliation aren't supposed to be released prior to Election Day, because they can influence how voters behave. Is this a leak?
Many states release info on early voting by the party in which the voter is registered. This doesn't mean they voted for that party's nominee, but you get a pretty good picture as to how the vote is going. Both major parties are going to have their registered voters vote around 95/5 for their particular candidate.
Voters not affiliated with either party are typically the wildcard. Currently 20.4% of all votes cast have been by voters not registered with a major party. Most estimates show these voters typically split even between the parties. I've seen some in conservative circles project they break for Trump 60/40 and I've seen some liberals say they expect them to break 55/45 for Biden. It's safe to say it will be somwhere in that range.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 1:20 pm to Tridentds
quote:
Thread on this same page has Republicans leading Florida by 10)K+.
Am I reading this wrong or are you 2 not on same page?
A lot of Republicans are choosing to focus only on the in-person vote. It is true that the GOP has built a +120,107 vote advantage in the In-Person early voting.... This is great news considering most polls expected the In-Person Early vote to be very close to even.
But you have to also consider the early votes by Mail in which Democrats (as expected) are clobbering Republicans.
Put together, the Democrats still have a 438,000 vote lead, but most think they need a 600,000 vote lead going into Election Day to win Florida. The GOP will dominate Election Day voting so the Dem's better be way out in front. Their lead seemed to peak a few days ago at 478,000 and it has since been falling.
At the rate things are going, the Dems may only have a 300,000 to 400,000 vote lead going into Election Day, and that simply won't cut it.
Posted on 10/22/20 at 1:27 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Voters not affiliated with either party are typically the wildcard. Currently 20.4% of all votes cast have been by voters not registered with a major party. Most estimates show these voters typically split even between the parties. I've seen some in conservative circles project they break for Trump 60/40 and I've seen some liberals say they expect them to break 55/45 for Biden. It's safe to say it will be somwhere in that range.
Trump won independents by 4 points, which were the largest voting block. If Biden wins them, he’s not winning them by 10. That is way too huge a swing unless the independent turnout is even larger than the record set in the last election, and by a substantial margin.
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