re: Democrat lead in FL early voting slips below 10%

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Only concern is that Repubs are shifting some Election Day vote to early vote. Still looks good for Trump, but I’m not as optimistic as Larry S on a complete FL landslide for that reason.

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I completely agree. Larry S is not even worth a follow IMO. He paints an unrealistically rosy picture.

A week ago, everyone agreed on these 3 things:

1. Democrats would dominate the early mail-in voting
This proved to be true, as the Democrats now lead with mail-in ballots by 558,000 votes

2. Republicans will dominate Election Day voting
Every poll shows this will be the case.

3. The early in-person voting should be fairly close
In the last two weeks, there have been three Florida polls that asked likely voters when they planned on voting.
The UNF poll said 24% of Republicans would vote Early, In-Person to 32% of Democrats
The St. Pete Times Poll said 30% of Republicans would vote Early, In-Person to 26.6% of Democrats
The Emerson poll said 22.9% of Republicans would vote early, In-Person to 20.3% of Democrats

Average these 3 polls together, and the consensus is that 25.6% of Republicans and 26.3% of Democrats would vote early, in-person. Any way you slice it, the early, in-person voting should be very close right now.

But it isn't....

Currently registered republicans are leading EIP voting by 123,000 votes which is +10%

I do agree with you that a potential concern is that Republicans have to be careful not to get too complacent as it might just be that some of the Trump voters who were certain they'd vote on Election Day got so energized that they decided to head to the polls early..... this could be the case.

At that point, you have to look at the county data... we'll continue to get a clearer picture with each passing day. But the fact that GOP ballots cast only trail DEM ballots by 17% in Miami-Dade when Hillary Clinton won the county by 29% in 2016... I think that is a VERY good sign.

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Florida isn’t even in question.

All red.

MN, PA, and WI are this year’s focus.

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I am feeling very good about Florida

I'm confident that if Florida goes big for Trump that North Carolina will follow suit, however the early vote numbers out of NC are not as rosy.

Arizona is looking better by the day.

It's going to come down to the rust belt. Things are looking way better than anyone would have thought a few weeks ago in Michigan. I think Michigan might actually be Trump's best chance out of the big Rust Belt four: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota.

Do you have a link to this ? NBC is still showing democrats up 14% . NBC doesn’t seem like it’s updating their data like they did when democrats were killing it with mail in ballots.

Follow @umichvoter99 on twitter. He has a google docs sheet he links to his profile in which he had a fantastic breakdown of the numbers by county.

He's slowed down on posting updates this week (he's a lib), but he does update a couple times per day.

Meanwhile Larry Schweikert has a pretty good site he built which is joeisdone.github.io/florida/

He updates every hour or so.