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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:48 am to
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:48 am to
quote:

Janky, The numbers yesterday were abnormally low compared to the trending. Is that because it was Sunday and reporting was delayed or is it a true decline, We'll find out today.



I guess what I am thinking is if the numbers are a little higher today then it may be due to rollover and not a reversal of the trend. At least that is what I am telling myself.

Anyway, thanks again for doing this.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 9:51 am
Posted by Damone
FoCo
Member since Aug 2016
32966 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:48 am to
Testing has been ramping up, so good news if the new cases begin to level off or, hopefully, decrease. But given that deaths lag cases, can we assume that we will still be seeing triple-digit death numbers on a daily basis for the next two or so weeks?
Posted by Ingloriousbastard
Member since May 2015
917 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:50 am to
The true rate likely won’t be known for months. In my opinion, this number should be looked at as more of a gauge to measure how things are currently going/trending.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129625 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:51 am to
quote:

But given that deaths lag cases, can we assume that we will still be seeing triple-digit death numbers on a daily basis for the next two or so weeks?


Unfortunately yes.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:57 am to
quote:

The whole point of our social distancing is NOT to prevent deaths.


Wrong. It’s to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed and keep people from dying that otherwise would have lived had they had proper care. Educate yourself before commenting
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:00 am to
“If”. Just hope the deaths balance out soon
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129625 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:03 am to
He’s mostly right. The estimate of deaths didn’t take into account extra deaths from overwhelming the system. Those were fixed numbers for the Imperial paper.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:05 am to
The imperial paper was garbage to begin with, I don’t know of anyone who took it seriously.

ETA: at least personally know them
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 10:06 am
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8712 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:07 am to
In ten years it will be the #1 case presented in public policy, influencing, and negotiations classes when the concept of anchoring is taught.
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40966 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:10 am to
quote:

What's astonishing to me is the media's take on both of these. Germany is largely praised as the paragon of COVID response, largely due to their testing volume. But their citizens are dying at the same clip as the US, whose response is considered a colossal failure by the same people.


You may be conflating two different points here, but I'm only guessing because I don't know Germany's vs our data.

German testing may be able to identify and isolate cases to avoid catastrophic spread. That doesn't change the rate that people die who contract it, it just lowers the amount of people who contract the disease to begin with.

A 2% of 100 infections is 2 deaths vs 2% of 1000 infections is 20 deaths.

Again, I have no idea if that is reality or not.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 10:11 am
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40966 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:13 am to
Ya, if yesterday was weekend numbers being artificially low, the hope would be today's number would be between yesterday's and Friday's or whatever.

Of course, if we beat Sunday's numbers we will all take that.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129625 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:14 am to
quote:

The imperial paper was garbage to begin with, I don’t know of anyone who took it seriously.


Lots of people did. Neil Ferguson is the go-to guy for modeling epidemics and pandemics. It’s impossible to dance around that study driving a lot of Western countries’ decision making.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135363 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:22 am to
quote:

Educate yourself before commenting
You're wrong. I'm right. GFY.
Posted by Vood
Member since Dec 2007
8620 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:23 am to
I feel like the numbers are just under reported. We are already up to 116 deaths today.

Today's number could have a good amount that should have been reported yesterday.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135363 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:25 am to
quote:

We are already up to 116 deaths today.
Where are you seeing that? I just refreshed "WorldoMeter.com" which is where the OP has said he gets his numbers and it's showing 23 deaths for today so far.

LINK
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129625 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:26 am to
quote:

We are already up to 116 deaths today. Today's number could have a good amount that should have been reported yesterday.

That’s normal. We’ve “started” some days with 50 deaths in the stats when the report rolls over.
Posted by cahoots
Member since Jan 2009
9134 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:27 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129625 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:31 am to
Yes and no. We know his was wrong. We don’t know what’s right. And we don’t know what’s right for the US. Seeing the broad differences in other country’s results would make me want to have good data for how our system and culture responds to the virus.
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
31265 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:33 am to
quote:

Where are you seeing that? I just refreshed "WorldoMeter.com" which is where the OP has said he gets his numbers and it's showing 23 deaths for today so far.

Maybe comparing the total deaths in the link to the chart in the original post? Yesterday ended up with more total than what is represented here.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:34 am to
It looks like WoM updated their Sunday numbers, I've updated mine to mirror theirs.

I'm showing 24 new deaths today now.

Yesterday's deaths went up to 371.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 10:37 am
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