re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

The problem with the new cases is assuming that everyone is getting tested. I think there is a potential for all the people who will ultimately succumb or have serious hospitalization to be counted daily. I think we could see waves/fluctuations of people missed to add to the case load properly.

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That was a predictable result given the dramatic influx of new cases around 7-10 days ago

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Yea I thought it was known the curve of deaths would just lag beging the number of cases by avg X number if days from test to death. Say 8 days or so. Even if our number if cases levels off I'd expect to see the death curve continue up another week or so.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

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Is the "days to double" still 4 for growth rate and 3 for deaths to double?

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Yup.

So yes or no — is social distancing working?? I do better with simple questions and simple answers.

Yes social distancing worked. NCY residents were told to go out and about living normal lives and even had street parties. That is why they had the big outbreak. Most of the country has no cases in counties and if they do it's only a handful. Larger metro areas have more cases, but it's still pretty isolated to places like New Orleans, LA, Chicago, and NYC.

Dr. Zelensky has %100 success treating high risk patients. Must start treatment early. Zinc, hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycine.
LINK

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Came across these charts from U. of Washington's health metrics division. It presents the outputs of the models very clearly by state and nationally with projections on epidemic rise/fall in the weeks to come and including anticipated hospital bed shortfalls where applicable.

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So that link shows we should expect 29 deaths in Texas today. 800 additional deaths over the next 12 days. Huh. Interesting.

Man, I don’t know. It’s now up to over 9K. I’ve been watching and wondering the same thing, only to see the cases rise much higher later in the day.

Does anyone know if each state only reports once a day?

Wisconsin data

LINK /

15k plus tests completed
1,079 confirmed
17 deaths

1.58 death rate

Those that died have been old with health issues.