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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:19 am to mmcgrath
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:19 am to mmcgrath
today is starting very slow but I know the alabama public health website has not yet updated and I wonder if a lot of sites haven't yet
hopefully today's slow start is indicative of how the day goes but it would be a statistical anomaly if our growth rate dropped that rapidly
hopefully today's slow start is indicative of how the day goes but it would be a statistical anomaly if our growth rate dropped that rapidly
2
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:29 am to Tiguar
I remember the last two mornings start at 4% and 7% when chrome updated first. Would be nice to see a big drop, but doubt it happens just yet.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:30 am to nerd guy
I’m sorry if I’m missing something but why does NY need 140,000 hospital beds?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:39 am to Tiguar
ADPH just updated, 40 more cases in Alabama this AM.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:03 am to Tiguar
Numbers starting to go up for the day, cross you fingers
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:23 am to Chromdome35
I'm interested in seeing Italy's deaths today. We should start to see if they are leveling off or if they are still driving further into suck city.
Spain I am afraid is going to be the next holy shite country.
Spain I am afraid is going to be the next holy shite country.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:25 am to Chromdome35
And of the 5,131 new cases so far 4,463 are from New York (87%). Damn.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:26 am to nerd guy
That's probably just because NY updated their numbers before the other states; however, it is a big increase just for NY.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:27 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
I'm interested in seeing Italy's deaths today.
Me too. It looks like Italy's inflection point in new cases was around the 21st. I'm sure their death numbers will lag a week behind that or so.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:28 am to LSUJML
Because if you take the growth rate of cases in NY and extend it out 2 weeks you get some really ugly numbers.
Will that happen? Who knows! It depends on the ability to flatten the curve.
Will that happen? Who knows! It depends on the ability to flatten the curve.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:32 am to Chromdome35
quote:
That's probably just because NY updated their numbers before the other states; however, it is a big increase just for NY.
Yea I could see their number of positives sky rocket for another week or so.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:40 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
At the current growth rate of cases and deaths, if we have to wait 14 days to see an impact, then we will be up around 1-2M cases and around 25K dead.
quote:
I think you'll start to see some significant regional and state variation here soon.
My Opinion: New York City, has a population of ~ 9 Million and is the region mostly responsible for the spike. I am assuming the 10,000 doses of drug being sent there will be reserved for positive, symptomatic cases, so should have an impact on serious cases/deaths only.
There is nothing new, other than hand washing, Soc Dis, etc that I am aware of for prevention of new cases.
Given the up to 14 day time period before you get symptoms, especially for those middle aged and younger, the curve in new cases will most likely continue to show logarithmic growth. But hopefully the curves for death will at some point start to bend down and plateau. That will be a positive sign that interventions for serious cases are working and will not overwhelm the system. this is why that overlay that Chrome has made of cases to deaths is the main things I track.
There is a tipping point. where the number of serious cases of CV saturate beds. IF that happens, the number of deaths may spike again due to lack of care.
Chrome, if we hit that point, there "may" be a new statistic that emerges. That is deaths not related to CV infection but due to CV because of lack of appropriate care.
I am a little stunned by the tweets from the NYC mayr's office telling people to ignore the "fears" of corona virus that someone posted in another thread...
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:44 am to LSUJML
quote:
I’m sorry if I’m missing something but why does NY need 140,000 hospital beds?
Gonna be a lot of OD's when the checks go out.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:46 am to NorCali
NorCali, I want to say thank you for the great observations and insight you have on this. I look forward to your posts.
I wonder how the then overwhelmed hospitals could even track and report on the "under serviced" cases?
I wonder how the then overwhelmed hospitals could even track and report on the "under serviced" cases?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:54 am to Chromdome35
Using the rudimentary model I built, I'm predicting today's Total Cases to finish around 69K with Deaths totaling 978
That would be new cases of 15K and new deaths of 200.
It will be interesting to see how far off I am, I hope my numbers are way high.
That would be new cases of 15K and new deaths of 200.
It will be interesting to see how far off I am, I hope my numbers are way high.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:55 am to LSUJML
They New York STATE have a population of 20,000,000 million. So that represents 0.7% of their population that they expect will need a bed. Low oxygenation, need for IV Fluids, fever and close observation for respiratory failure are some of the criteria.
30% of 0.7% = 0.2% which might be their high end of expected fatality rate, which is not, unfortunately, unreasonably high. That would be ~42,000 deaths for that state.
30% of 0.7% = 0.2% which might be their high end of expected fatality rate, which is not, unfortunately, unreasonably high. That would be ~42,000 deaths for that state.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:59 am to NorCali
That’s assuming a 16% rate of infection for the whole state.
I have no knowledge of whether that’s a rational assumption to make.
As to your mortality rate guess, that is unfortunately not probably way off. .2 into 16 gives you a 1.2% CFR.
I have no knowledge of whether that’s a rational assumption to make.
As to your mortality rate guess, that is unfortunately not probably way off. .2 into 16 gives you a 1.2% CFR.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:59 am to NorCali
Looks like Spain might be making out relatively ok today.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:07 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Looks like Spain might be making out relatively ok today.
Their 443 is actually from yesterday. They won’t update again till tomorrow. But it was a decrease from Monday.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:11 pm to Chromdome35
Italy just reported 683 deaths from yesterday, a decrease from Monday.
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