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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:10 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:10 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Good post
Just curious, do you know where I can learn about testing systems in Europe?
I thought they were similar to South Korea, but i guess not?
I've only gotten what I know about it from the internet, which as we all know, it's the internet. I do get my info from national news sources, though.
The deal with South Korea, was they had just dealt with the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, that is caused by a different varient of the coronavirus) outbreak in 2015, and handled that very poorly, and was globally castigated over it by the WHO and other global health communities. They made efforts to improve their readiness response.
So when they started getting early confirmed cases of COVID-19, they were prepared and moved quickly.
Such reforms were immediate approval to testing systems in an emergency. Also nation-wide coordination of medical companies to where they worked almost as a dream team of companies to compete to develop the fastest and most effective testing systems.
Yes, South Korea used the WHO testing platform, which was developed initially in Germany. And they had a stockpile of masks and other supplies and PPE equipment, and again the companies had instantaneous open doors to developing and mass-producing these supplies from the start.
And they just started testing everybody - the symptomatic people and people in the areas of the infected, even if they had zero symptoms. They did drive-by testing - several companies once they had testing systems prepared just ran with it, and blanketed everything.
They also had a major central source of infection in their nation identified as coming from a religious group consisting of thousands of people, that early on they were able to target and isolate, which I think helped to contain the spread very quickly than if it was spreading randomly from people not connected with each other.
From what I understand, most if not all of Europe have been using the WHO platform, but once the WHO put it out to up to 170 nations, the medical communities could have used it as a reference to make their own tests. The biggest issue has not been the tests themselves, when it comes to the U.S., but the rate and timeliness of mass-producing those tests to sufficient numbers to provide to the state level, to help in gathering information of who and where to quarantine. And also the levels of other needed supplies like swabs, respirators, ventilators, and personal protection equipment for medical staff like masks, shields, and gloves - the shortage of these have also hampered the efforts to test and treat victims of the disease....
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 11:13 pm
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Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:13 pm to Chromdome35
I have to remind myself to look at trends and not individual days but today is a kick in the pants when you look at the overlay on the log scale of cases vs deaths. There had been a noticeable gap for a while that disappeared today. Hoping it is only a one day blip and in a week it will look like a messy data point.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:22 pm to Chromdome35
quote:Italy’s case growth started decreasing consistently from 03/06. Unfortunately their deaths accelerated at that time, and their case fatality rate went from 4.18% on March 6th to 9.86% on March 24th.
Good news, the new case growth rate is decreasing, The daily growth rate for tests is increasing.
Bad news, the growth rate for deaths shot up, the mortality rate rose for the first time, and the % of active cases requiring hospitalization rose.
I guess the hope is that, the deaths finally catch up with the slowing of cases.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 11:27 pm
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:27 pm to buckeye_vol
And, Italy is on a MUCH stricter lockdown than we are in areas where we have lockdowns.
We will pass Italy in the total number of cases in the next 2-3 days; however, We are still far behind them in cases per million population
We will pass Italy in the total number of cases in the next 2-3 days; however, We are still far behind them in cases per million population
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 11:32 pm
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:30 pm to NorCali
We were bound to see a jump in deaths as we had a jump in cases. I don’t know what stops this virus. I’m not ruling out prayer.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:30 pm to MF Doom
quote:
Only a foolish person thinks we would've been able to stop the spread in a country as big as the US.
The government would've had to take EXTREME measures and there is no way the American public would go with that
You're trying to posit that it was extreme for the United States to produce more than 12 tests per day during February?? That there was nothing we could do to involve the private sector to manufacture more than that?
Despite what Birx has claimed, the WHO test was not flawed at all - the initial CDC test was more flawed than the WHO test was. But regardless, I refuse to think that the United States has fallen so far in it's abilities to self-sustain its own health security, that we're now on a level with most 3rd-world countries??
From EVERYONE's account, the biggest factor for the slow rev-up of test manufacturing was bureaucratic fumbling, than anything we're incompetent at, industrially speaking.
That big dead period during February has pretty much written the story on all our problems with this thing......
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:31 pm to the808bass
The virus is basically over with. Trump found the cure. We need to get back to work this is ridiculous.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:33 pm to ConwayGamecock
Go to the store and get a tube of toothpaste. Empty it. Then put it back in.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:35 pm to BarnHater
IF the Hyrdoxychloroquinine/zpack combination is truly effective, then we should start to see some decline in the growth rate of deaths. The question on the table is when will we see the impact on the numbers?
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:37 pm to BarnHater
quote:We just had more deaths in 1 day (225) than the first 20 days that began with the first death (02/29 to 03/19); it’s clearly over without.
The virus is basically over with. Trump found the cure. We need to get back to work this is ridiculous.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:37 pm to ConwayGamecock
quote:
You're trying to posit that it was extreme for the United States to produce more than 12 tests per day during February?? That there was nothing we could do to involve the private sector to manufacture more than that?
Despite what Birx has claimed, the WHO test was not flawed at all - the initial CDC test was more flawed than the WHO test was. But regardless, I refuse to think that the United States has fallen so far in it's abilities to self-sustain its own health security, that we're now on a level with most 3rd-world countries??
From EVERYONE's account, the biggest factor for the slow rev-up of test manufacturing was bureaucratic fumbling, than anything we're incompetent at, industrially speaking.
That big dead period during February has pretty much written the story on all our problems with this thing......
I don't think it's the getting to the industrial capacity and technical capability necessary - I still trust the U.S. on that front far more than just about any other society and economy.
It's wrangling hundreds of millions of people to get on the same plane to start actually implementing it and get people to abide by it. Especially in a culture that is hyper-individualistic, "frick the man", geographically huge, very mobile, and also, somewhat contradictory, very regional.
To illustrate my point: to realistically have a shot of actually getting it to work the first time around, we'd have had to start doing this in the last week of January or first week of February, right? I can't think of a single governor or mayor of a major city that would've pursued that path given the backlash it would've caused at the time. Maybe they'll be more amenable to it next time around, but even if we'd had the tools available to actually do it, I don't think anyone had the political will.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 11:41 pm
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:40 pm to Chromdome35
This is a 16 minute interview of GVS and Dr. Brix
It is extremely informative. From March 21st.
FYI, she mentions worldometer as a data source!
LINK
It is extremely informative. From March 21st.
FYI, she mentions worldometer as a data source!
LINK
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:47 pm to the808bass
quote:
Go to the store and get a tube of toothpaste. Empty it. Then put it back in.
We're still in the stage of watching the toothpaste ooze out of the tube, while we stand there watching it, with the cap to the tube in our hands.....
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:57 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
I don't think it's the getting to the industrial capacity and technical capability necessary - I still trust the U.S. on that front far more than just about any other society and economy.
It's wrangling hundreds of millions of people to get on the same plane to start actually implementing it and get people to abide by it. Especially in a culture that is hyper-individualistic, "frick the man", geographically huge, very mobile, and also, somewhat contradictory, very regional.
To illustrate my point: to realistically have a shot of actually getting it to work the first time around, we'd have had to start doing this in the last week of January or first week of February, right? I can't think of a single governor or mayor of a major city that would've pursued that path given the backlash it would've caused at the time. Maybe they'll be more amenable to it next time around, but even if we'd had the tools available to actually do it, I don't think anyone had the political will.
What still blows my mind - and this will be picked apart, dissected, and run over the grills for years by Congress, the courts, and the media after we finally get a handle on this bug, is that fact that the HHS actually ran a pandemic exercise from January - August 2019, and ALL of the nonsense we're going through now, happened then. The lack of coordination from the federal level through the private manufacturing sector down to the state levels of dealing with it.
All the issues with shortages of PPE supplies, the lack of coordination and information regarding shutdowns, lockdowns, etc. All that happened in 2019.
That should have been a miracle - that literally could have been Trump's miracle move, so that the U.S. would have been the most prepared and armed nation on the planet to deal with the COVID-19 when it happened. It would have made Trump a national hero to most - a savior to many. We already knew.
It's a crying shame. Hopefully as you say, we'll learn something from this for the "next time". But really, this should have been the "next time", even if the first time was fabricated and only an exercise. We already knew......
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 11:59 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:00 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Bad news, the growth rate for deaths shot up, the mortality rate rose for the first time, and the % of active cases requiring hospitalization rose.
3/12 - 3 Deaths
3/14 - 8 Deaths
3/16 - 18 Deaths
3/18 - 41 Deaths
3/20 - 49 Deaths
3/22 - 117 Deaths
3/24 - 225 Deaths
3/26 - ___ Deaths
3/28 - ___ Deaths
...........Scary.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:07 am to MF Doom
quote:
The government would've had to take EXTREME measures and there is no way the American public would go with that
Just read this board. A decent amount of people still don’t want to do it, even with the data.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:17 am to ConwayGamecock
quote:
What still blows my mind - and this will be picked apart, dissected, and run over the grills for years by Congress, the courts, and the media after we finally get a handle on this bug, is that fact that the HHS actually ran a pandemic exercise from January - August 2019, and ALL of the nonsense we're going through now, happened then. The lack of coordination from the federal level through the private manufacturing sector down to the state levels of dealing with it.
All the issues with shortages of PPE supplies, the lack of coordination and information regarding shutdowns, lockdowns, etc. All that happened in 2019.
That should have been a miracle - that literally could have been Trump's miracle move, so that the U.S. would have been the most prepared and armed nation on the planet to deal with the COVID-19 when it happened. It would have made Trump a national hero to most - a savior to many. We already knew.
It's a crying shame. Hopefully as you say, we'll learn something from this for the "next time". But really, this should have been the "next time", even if the first time was fabricated and only an exercise. We already knew......
Well, a few things:
- Most importantly, running simulations with skeleton crews is just a wildly different proposition than actually implementing policy when it comes rolling at you in real life; we used to war game shite with Pacific Rim allies against a theoretical Chinese attack all the time. It's one thing to war game it; it's an entirely different thing to actually fight that war. And every single time, we'd come out of it with conclusions like, "Well, we'd need probably another carrier group or two forward deployed, better penetrating cyber capabilities, etc., etc.". But you have to go and ask Congress for those things...
- Which brings me to my next point, and that's none of it happens in a political vacuum. To get something like that accomplished in our system, it takes a lot of arm twisting, deal-making, budget-passing, compromise, coordination across at least 3 different levels of government, and so on and so on. Our diffuse, democratic, federalist system just isn't set up to deal with this, even if we'd had a President who had incredible organizational capabilities. That very system allows us to respond to stuff like this very well - I'd argue better than anyone - once we get our bearings about us after the initial barrage, but preventative measures? No.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:29 am to ConwayGamecock
quote:
But regardless, I refuse to think that the United States has fallen so far in it's abilities to self-sustain its own health security, that we're now on a level with most 3rd-world countries??
Are you saying all of Western Europe is 3rd world? They had The WHO tests. What’s their excuse?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:36 am to Chromdome35
I would estimate within 14 days, 21 max. I say that because of the supposed 10,000 patients worth of doses being sent to NY. NY will be the largest contributor in that timeframe to deaths based on the spike in cases these past few days.
Unless someone has a better median number of days from diagnosis to death? I am just assuming 14-21 days.
Unless someone has a better median number of days from diagnosis to death? I am just assuming 14-21 days.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:51 am to Chromdome35
So I added a new tab called weighted averages. The theory behind this tab is similar to the stock market investing strategy called the golden cross.
You look at two weighted averages, a long term average and a short term average. This allows you to see trending in the numbers. The stock market theory is that when the short term line goes above the long term line you buy, when it drops below you sell. (I hope i got that right)
This is what the total cases graph looks like
And this is what the deaths graph looks like
You look at two weighted averages, a long term average and a short term average. This allows you to see trending in the numbers. The stock market theory is that when the short term line goes above the long term line you buy, when it drops below you sell. (I hope i got that right)
This is what the total cases graph looks like
And this is what the deaths graph looks like
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