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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:54 pm to
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

From what I heard, my friend has several other Covid patients in the same hospital as him. All of them are on the vent.


the prevailing thought with pulm here seems to be to just intubate these patients and skip HFC/bipap because the latter causes more virus spread but I hate that idea. the patients I've seen get a vent dont come off it easy and I'd prefer to just avoid it as long as possible
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:56 pm to
So at what point is it decided that they won’t come off? Family decision based on MD provided info? I mean you can’t stay on a vent forever. Do people finally just die?? (Don’t mean that ugly but idk how else to say it)
Posted by ConwayGamecock
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9121 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:56 pm to
quote:

We’re getting close to testing the shite out of this. And it’s not that 60% are being tested. I would think of it as 60% that are symptomatic.

You’re arguing that hundreds of thousands of people are symptomatic and aren’t being tested.


Due to the delays in producing the tests, we're already way behind the 8-ball in catching up to the un-tested cases that may be unsymptomatic, but have the virus and thus are still spreading the virus.

It's like putting out a fire. At one point, the fire was so small one person could have pissed on it and put it out. Or kicked dirt on it. But that person waited until the fire got bigger, and was too big for piss or a foot-full of dirt to make any difference.

But still we waited more, or tried at that point, but took time figuring out what to do: we found a water hose and nozzle and turned on the water, and initially that would have been good enough to douse the fire. But the time it took to find the hose allowed the fire to get even bigger, and now the time it takes to douse the flames gives the rest of the fire time to get bigger still.

So now we ask others to help - bring more hoses and shovels and pails of water. But now that fire is so big, and growing by orders of magnitude with every passing minute, that it's like every step forward there's 2 steps back. Or 3 steps back.

So the CDC produced only 352 tests for the month of February. We're having to run hard just to catch up. We're not supposed to run even with the virus - we're supposed to get ahead of it and smother it down. The numbers don't look like we're at that point yet, but we'll see in 2 weeks.....
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

So at what point is it decided that they won’t come off?


it's not really a decision like youre thinking about.

I'm saying we try to lower vent settings, try to get the patient off the vent, and they dont tolerate it. they NEED it to stay alive
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74629 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

Due to the delays in producing the tests, we're already way behind the 8-ball in catching up to the un-tested cases that may be unsymptomatic, but have the virus and thus are still spreading the virus.
At this point, I don't think testing would have prevented lockdowns.
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:12 pm to
quote:

and there are only 50k people infected

Posted by ConwayGamecock
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9121 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

At this point, I don't think testing would have prevented lockdowns.


If we reacted appropriately, we could have had a far better understanding of where the primary sources of contamination were in the U.S. when the spread footprint was smaller, and could have better quarantined them. That would have reduced the spread far better than what we're now seeing.

We have improved substantially in developing tests during March with the FDA finally getting out of the way of the private sector - we're at a point where we are up to ~40,000 tests per day. That is from 1/4th to 1/3rd where we should be at this point, but it's still a huge improvement, and those numbers are increasing with every week.

Again, tests are not vaccines, but without the understanding of what the virus is doing within our nation's population, states have no choice but to shut down businesses and lockdown communities as sort of a blind-containment effort. Without those test results, there is no understanding......
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 10:24 pm
Posted by ConwayGamecock
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9121 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:25 pm to
quote:




He's clearly referring to confirmed cases, which at this moment is 54,808.
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

He's clearly referring to confirmed cases, which at this moment is 54,808.

Right, so comparing confirmed cases of one to estimated cases of another to try and make a point about mortality rate is extremely misleading and stupid.

Every single word of that post was retarded.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74629 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:28 pm to
Good post

Just curious, do you know where I can learn about testing systems in Europe?

I thought they were similar to South Korea, but i guess not?
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:29 pm to
He says as he ignores the subsequent posts. Damn single variable thinkers
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 10:30 pm
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:32 pm to
No, we're all unfortunately reading your ignorant drivel.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:33 pm to
I can’t think of a single god damn thing I’ve been wrong about since I started posting about this.

My post on page one of this very thread that got admonished in downvotes for simply saying deaths are a lagging indicator looks pretty accurate now.

95% of this board has exposed themselves as brain dead mouth breathers.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 10:34 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:35 pm to
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.








Posted by NorCali
Member since Feb 2015
1795 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

It’s just hard to wrap my brain around. Someone make me feel better and a way to understand this.


I'll shoot.

In general, it is a virus and has to run it's course. And I have been trying to put the fear of God in my relatives that are 70 and over. If this group listens and stay isolated, the number of serious cases will not spike nearly as bad as suggested. Once we feel like we are able to handle the hospital bed situation, life will get back close to normal for most folks 65 and below, with maybe some better awareness of how not to spread an airborne virus.

As far as vaccines go, we are technically ahead of where you would normally be this early in a pandemic because the "spike protein" that sticks off of the virus particle, the "corona", happens to be very similar to the SARS-1 virus, which makes sense as they are in the same family of betacoronaviruses. And because of this, they have already mapped out amino acid sequences that elicit T cell immunity (T cells kill the infected cells) and B cell immunity (B cells mature to plasma cells and produce antibody). They are in development already. These small amino acid sequences will be produced as recombinant proteins in huge quantities and will be used as a vaccine. High likely hood they will be effective because of the fact that young adults and kids are probably spared from the serious cases because they have some pre-existing immunity due to exposure of other corona viruses in school and have immune memory, so we can feel pretty confident that a good vaccine will be developed. And hopefully effective for the viral family so that SARS-3 will not put us in the same boat.

There are also patients that have cleared this virus and have antibodies in their serum. There are trials being conducted to see if the serum from these people can help those in very serious condition.

Finally, trials looking at the generic drug losartan are also starting. 1000 patient trial through Univ of Minnesota. Viral load readouts will happen in weeks. If there is a positive effect, doctors can start using it off label. (It is a very popular blood pressure drug anyway that many people are on.) It is a direct inhibitor to the receptor that the virus uses to infect cells.

The reason that it is important that generic, FDA approved drugs (this include azithromycin and hydroxycholoquine) may work is that all it takes is an interim endpoint, like 3 or 5 day viral load decrease, to show some effect and be published (like the french paper) and US doctors can prescribe these off label drugs and it can become standard of care in weeks.

No one knows the future, but finding a therapeutic intervention for this, whether immunologic or generic med, is not years away, but probably can be measured in months. And we don't have to cure it. We only have to decrease the number of serous cases/deaths and we get back to our baseline of knowing that viruses happen during the flu season. We just are not there yet and things will evolve rapidly over the next month or 2, for better or worse, but I am leaning towards the better.
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8712 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

Good post

Just curious, do you know where I can learn about testing systems in Europe?

I thought they were similar to South Korea, but i guess not?



I think it's pretty clear at this point that the developed countries on China's periphery are just far, far better prepared for this in ways that we just couldn't really conceive. It permeates their culture and political economy pretty deeply. Even the countries that you'd think would handle this well in Europe - don't look now, but even countries like Denmark are starting to get creamed by this - are struggling.

Living next to that beast of a disease factory for a couple thousand years has its advantages.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:39 pm to
Yes I know that they need it — I truly get that. But are these people going to stay on a vent forever if their conditions don’t improve enough to come off?
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:42 pm to
Good news, the new case growth rate is decreasing, The daily growth rate for tests is increasing.

Bad news, the growth rate for deaths shot up, the mortality rate rose for the first time, and the % of active cases requiring hospitalization rose.

What else?
Posted by MF Doom
I'm only Joshin'
Member since Oct 2008
12014 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:48 pm to
quote:

At this point, I don't think testing would have prevented lockdowns



Only a foolish person thinks we would've been able to stop the spread in a country as big as the US.

The government would've had to take EXTREME measures and there is no way the American public would go with that
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 3/24/20 at 10:55 pm to
Ok good explanation. Andnmucj appreciated.

I just want my kid to be able to go back to school in the fall. Not that I don’t like her being here but she loved being there.

I just want my parents to be safe and they’re hard headed. I just want my nursing home people to be.

I hate uncertainty and like definite answers and neither of those can be given in this situation.
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