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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:11 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:11 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Thats not necessarily true. Tests don't correspond to new cases on a 1 to 1 basis.
Eta: not everyone tests positive.
I'd like to see number of tests given along with number of new positives. I'm not in the medical field, but I would assume that is also tracked.
0
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:12 pm to tiger91
quote:
Fading as in what you’re seeing in the clinic??
Yes, but we are having to test many that I know will be negative so they can go back to work. Or the ones flipping their shite. Based on the description of the symptoms and clinical picture, I'm 99% certain we peaked during flu season. Had many, many pt's with fever, headache, cough, body aches etc and flu negative (which isn't 100%) and quite a few with viral/atypical pneumonias on CXR. Covered for atypical bugs and treated symptomatically. All did well. A few older ones got hospitalized. None that I can think of died. But all of us agreed it was something flu-like, but not flu. Was lasting about two weeks. Did notice that some that were given Tamiflu based on clinical symptoms got well faster. It blocks RNA viral replication. Which coronavirus is and has been used overseas in combo with some HIV meds with good results. Then COVID-19 started getting traction and we put 2 and 2 together. Had wife try to stock some meds, including hydroxychloroquine, just in case. Had trouble getting it. We use it a lot for connective tissue disease and the price inexplicably shot up about two years ago. Were only able to get a little more than our usual monthly order because apparently the gov't has been stockpiling it for two years.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:19 pm to TideCPA
quote:
Except testing is growing exponentially as well.
THIS!!!!! We JUST started widespread testing in the past week or two. The exponential growth has been because we are testing for it in far greater numbers and aren't bound to only testing the oldest and sickest. That's why the mortality rate is dropping. I'd bet testing will be more than 100 negative to 1 positive if we test pt's with mild or resolving symptoms. Or you can ignore those of us that do this for living and see this shite every day. We're not scared. At least those of us with a little knowledge and experience. I do have one older partner flipping his shite and going "full retard" over it, but he's my dad so I just have to manage his craziness.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:42 pm to SmackoverHawg
Number of deaths drops day-over-day.
New cases increased from ~4500 to ~5600.
39 new recoveries versus 49 deaths
New cases increased from ~4500 to ~5600.
39 new recoveries versus 49 deaths
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:00 pm to the808bass
quote:
39 new recoveries versus 49 deaths
I find it quite disturbing that of the 411 "closed cases" shown on the Worldometers website, LINK 264 (64%) of them were fatalities whereas 147 (36%) were "discharged".
To think that of all of the cases to date deaths have exceeded "discharges" by 180% is ominous in the least.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:02 pm to ImaObserver
quote:
To think that of all of the cases to date deaths have exceeded "discharges" by 180% is ominous in the least.
Eh. That seems to be more of a data issue than a virus issue. Deaths are easy to report. Recoveries are tougher. And it doesn’t seem like recoveries have been as diligently tracked.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:15 pm to frogglet
quote:here's an unwarranted assumption that leads to...
It took what, 3+ months to get to 100,000?
quote:we don't know when this thing started or how many cases were floating around. all we know is the first reported case. so, it's entirely possible that the virus was circulating, perhaps even widespread (which is being reported by medical professionals), thus greatly affecting the perspective on the current trend we are looking at. that's what some people are trying to point out.
I don't know what people can't understand about exponential growth
quote:i haven't done that one time. i have repeatedly referred to the first 6 months of h1n1 - 20 mil cases in the us alone. we are not currently on that track with this virus. not even close. i am looking at the trend, not final numbers. the picture is still emerging but there's no doubt this virus is not a blip on the radar historically speaking at this time.
Stop comparing totals of outbreaks that are complete to ones that are still underway and experiencing exponential growth
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:17 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:
Were only able to get a little more than our usual monthly order because apparently the gov't has been stockpiling it for two years.
Well that’s interesting.
Fortunately we’ve been healthy — husband had the flu in late September before the vaccine was even available at the nursing home where I work.
Hope it’s run it’s course here. Or will soon.
Fortunate all of our residents are just their normal “sick” and not covid sick.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 11:19 pm
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:18 pm to frogglet
quote:like newsom who told the president 25 mil in cali would be infected? those projections? honestly, they seem pretty outlandish right now
Maybe they've seen the studies produced by epidemiologists who estimated what the carnage is going to be?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:19 pm to frogglet
quote:so you don't find it remarkable that after potentially 4 months there are only 275k cases reported worldwide? you think that's "dumb"? do you know how long the seasonal flu season is and how many people are infected/killed in that time?
Which would then make it even dumber to talk about it only being 275k at the moment.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:00 am to bfniii
Just responding to the last post in the thread.
Estimates of the Ebola outbreak of 2014 and its severity were way off. Estimates ranged up to 1.2M infected. The result? 20,000 with 9,000 deaths.
Neil Ferguson defended the models saying one of the purposes of the models was “to wake up the world and say that this could be really bad if we don’t do anything.”
Who’s Neil Ferguson? He’s the author of the Imperial College analysis of Covid-19 which estimates 60% infection rates for the US and the UK.
And if he’s just wildly wrong? He woke up the world.
LINK
Estimates of the Ebola outbreak of 2014 and its severity were way off. Estimates ranged up to 1.2M infected. The result? 20,000 with 9,000 deaths.
Neil Ferguson defended the models saying one of the purposes of the models was “to wake up the world and say that this could be really bad if we don’t do anything.”
Who’s Neil Ferguson? He’s the author of the Imperial College analysis of Covid-19 which estimates 60% infection rates for the US and the UK.
And if he’s just wildly wrong? He woke up the world.
LINK
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:14 am to the808bass
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:21 am to the808bass
quote:
Number of deaths drops day-over-day.
Appears to be that NY came in late with a batch of deaths for some reason, because we're already at 24 for this new day.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:23 am to frogglet
We started yesterday with 10. Over time those things smooth out.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:26 am to the808bass
The prediction is for what would happen without intervention. The prediction then spurs a massive intervention, and the prediction predictably no longer applies. I mean, it certainly isn't proof that the prediction was valid, but at the same time the interventions obviously have a large effect.
Still I agree with the criticism of his and other's modeling of the Ebola virus. However, he isn't the only one forecasting the spread of this disease.
Still I agree with the criticism of his and other's modeling of the Ebola virus. However, he isn't the only one forecasting the spread of this disease.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:30 am to frogglet
So let’s say we end up with 500,000 infected in the US and roughly 5,000 deaths.
Was it our interventions which prevented 197,500,000 infections and 1,195,000 deaths? Or was he full of shite?
ETA: and does everyone who ends up with horrific financial outcomes, get to give him a nutshot?
Was it our interventions which prevented 197,500,000 infections and 1,195,000 deaths? Or was he full of shite?
ETA: and does everyone who ends up with horrific financial outcomes, get to give him a nutshot?
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 12:33 am
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:32 am to bfniii
quote:
so you don't find it remarkable that after potentially 4 months there are only 275k cases reported worldwide?
Entire nations and billions of people have gone under lockdown to halt the spread of this disease. You don't find it remarkable that despite that it is completely uncontained and growing exponentially?
As far as the increase in testing, that would not explain the deaths, which also generally appear to be increasing exponentially as well.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:35 am to the808bass
quote:
Was it our interventions which prevented 197,500,000 infections and 1,195,000 deaths? Or was he full of shite?
It would definitely be up for debate. I'm sure our interventions will have some kind of effect, because why wouldn't they? We could only try to estimate what that effect is though.
quote:
ETA: and does everyone who ends up with horrific financial outcomes, get to give him a nutshot?
Sure I won't stop anyone
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:37 am to frogglet
If our efforts (which all the geniuses have said “are too late” and “not enough”) reduce the effect of the virus by 99.75% of the modeled prediction, then I feel pretty safe saying the model was shite.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:57 am to frogglet
quote:
Maybe they've seen the studies produced by epidemiologists who estimated what the carnage is going to be?
This is based on BS modeling soooooo...they are wrong.
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