- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 6/15/20 at 6:38 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 6/15/20 at 6:38 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the New COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
This post was edited on 6/16/20 at 3:02 pm
2
Posted on 6/15/20 at 10:39 pm to Chromdome35
I thought this was an interesting article that discussed the failure of modeling to accurately predict COVID.
https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/
https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/
quote:
COVID-19 is a major acute crisis with unpredictable consequences. Many scientists have struggled to make forecasts about its impact [1]. However, despite involving many excellent modelers, best intentions, and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed.
Experienced modelers drew early on parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu [2] that caused >50 million deaths with mean age at death being 28. We all lament the current loss of life. However, as of June 8, total fatalities are ~410,000 with median age ~80 and typically multiple comorbidities.
Predictions for hospital and ICU bed requirements were also entirely misinforming. Public leaders trusted models (sometimes even black boxes without disclosed methodology) inferring massively overwhelmed health care capacity (Table 1) [3]. However, eventually very few hospitals were stressed, for a couple of weeks. Most hospitals maintained largely empty wards, waiting for tsunamis that never came. The general population was locked and placed in horror-alert to save the health system from collapsing. Tragically, many health systems faced major adverse consequences, not by COVID-19 cases overload, but for very different reasons.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 3:15 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Chromdome35
quote:
I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easy to consume format.
Best customer service ever.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 3:10 pm to Chromdome35
I have been working on the tracker today. I finished up the new Daily Dashboard. This is an extreme zoomed out view of the tracker page. This daily dashboard page is available for the US via the US Daily Dashboard Tab and for every state via the State Daily Dashboard Tab. As always with my pages, you can change the date or state by clicking on the light yellow cells.
You will notice on the upper right hand, I have added two comparative tables that will show you cases and deaths for the current day vs the same day of the week for the past 13 weeks. I have formated this as a heat map to show the peaks and valleys. This is what that looks like for Yesterday for the US. I also put in a simple graph for both so you can easily see the movement.
Rebel...hows that for customer service?
You will notice on the upper right hand, I have added two comparative tables that will show you cases and deaths for the current day vs the same day of the week for the past 13 weeks. I have formated this as a heat map to show the peaks and valleys. This is what that looks like for Yesterday for the US. I also put in a simple graph for both so you can easily see the movement.
Rebel...hows that for customer service?
This post was edited on 6/16/20 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 6/16/20 at 6:16 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:08 pm to Chromdome35
I added a new graph that overlays the 7-day average # of daily tests with the positivity rate.
As you can see, once the # of tests got up to around the 400K range, the positivity rate has been hovering around 4.6%.
If we take this 4.6% positivity rate and apply it to the US population, that would put the number of infected individuals at 15.2M. We've had 110K deaths out of the 15.2M which yields an actual mortality rate of .72%.
Given the resilience of the Mortality curve, it may not be out of the realm of possibility to conclude the mortality rate of COVID is in this neighborhood.
As you can see, once the # of tests got up to around the 400K range, the positivity rate has been hovering around 4.6%.
If we take this 4.6% positivity rate and apply it to the US population, that would put the number of infected individuals at 15.2M. We've had 110K deaths out of the 15.2M which yields an actual mortality rate of .72%.
Given the resilience of the Mortality curve, it may not be out of the realm of possibility to conclude the mortality rate of COVID is in this neighborhood.
This post was edited on 6/16/20 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 6/17/20 at 6:45 am to Chromdome35
I'm curious if the recent "spikes" have more to do with required tests each time one needs to go to the hospital for blood work or a procedure, especially due to the recent resuming of elective surgery. Of those positive, how many are asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms. I guess we will know in 10 days?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:06 am to WylieTiger
Its a good question, I suspect that some of the rise in testing is from repeated tests on the same person. I've seen multiple articles that indicate that for someone who has the virus to be declared recovered, they must have two negative test results. That would mean that for at least some people they are tested at least 3 times. 1 person = 1 positive result and 2 negative results.
I do know that in Arkansas's case, the reported testing numbers only include those tests done by the state and not by the commercial labs in the state. I wonder how many other states are doing the same?
One of the biggest challenges we've had throughout the outbreak is getting consistent solid numbers. In the aftermath, I hope they spend some cycles on designing better protocols and guidelines for reporting.
I do know that in Arkansas's case, the reported testing numbers only include those tests done by the state and not by the commercial labs in the state. I wonder how many other states are doing the same?
One of the biggest challenges we've had throughout the outbreak is getting consistent solid numbers. In the aftermath, I hope they spend some cycles on designing better protocols and guidelines for reporting.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:52 am to Chromdome35
I nominate Chrome for numbers Czar.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:46 am to Chromdome35
quote:
If we take this 4.6% positivity rate and apply it to the US population, that would put the number of infected individuals at 15.2M. We've had 110K deaths out of the 15.2M which yields an actual mortality rate of .72%.
This is actually right on point with what the Gu coronavirus model is estimating.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 3:37 pm to Chromdome35
alabama saw its first drop in cases today 390 
Posted on 6/17/20 at 4:00 pm to Chromdome35
As a side-bar I have talked with three 20 year olds that had only one symptom - could not taste anything. Each one tested positive for covid. Nurse told one of them that particular symptom always comes back positive (her experience). All three of them also got one negative test but have tried several times and can't get a second negative test. Just food for thought.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 5:56 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
Posted on 6/17/20 at 6:03 pm to Chromdome35
One of the things I'm really starting to keep my eyes on is the daily growth rate and 7-day average growth rate of cases and deaths.
To facilitate this, I added a new tab called State Growth Rate Comparison.
You can select the growth rate for New Cases, New Deaths, New Cases 7 Day Average Growth, and Deaths 7 Day Average Growth.
The heat map tab has also been modified to add these numbers as well as seen here in this screenshot of the tab showing the 7-day average growth rate of new cases.
To facilitate this, I added a new tab called State Growth Rate Comparison.
You can select the growth rate for New Cases, New Deaths, New Cases 7 Day Average Growth, and Deaths 7 Day Average Growth.
The heat map tab has also been modified to add these numbers as well as seen here in this screenshot of the tab showing the 7-day average growth rate of new cases.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 6:34 pm to Chromdome35
New Cases were flat vs yesterday, up 15% over last week and 5.8% above the rolling average which will move the average upward. Cases have been showing an upswing over the last week after having been on a sustained downward trend. Today's positivity rate of 4.9% is above the 7-day average positivity rate which remains at 4.6%. Today's positivity rate combined with 488K tests represents an uptick above that which would be expected from just more testing. In other words, today's results appear to be more than just a result of more testing.
Deaths were up 9.7% from yesterday, but down 11% vs last week. Vs the 7-day rolling average, deaths were 18.7% above.
Mortality continues to slowly decline as we would expect it to based on the unknown number of cases. It currently sits at 5.2%. Mortality is dropping by .1% every 3 to 4 days. This represents an acceleration in the decline vs the 5-7 day decline we have seen over the last few weeks.
Deaths continue to drop while cases appear to be increasing, is it a result of more testing? Consider this graph that shows the 7 day rolling average growth rate of cases and deaths. The time scale on this graph is much shorter to allow us to see a more granular view of the movement. You can clearly see the flattening out and slight rise at the end of the growth rate in cases. The decline in the growth rate of deaths appears to be flattening as well.
Compare this to the longer time scale and you can see how the flattening and small upward is obscured.
After the protests, we wondered if the number of cases would spike. The best way I know of to determine that at this point is to look at the growth rate of the states with the largest protests. You can see this on the heat map and the growth rate tabs. At this point, it doesn't appear that the states with the most rioting (MN, MI, CA, GA, NY, KY) appear to be experiencing spikes yet.
The states with the largest increases in growth rate of cases are AZ, FL, AR, MT, SC, OR, NV.
Using the State Daily Dashboard Tab of the Tracker to look at FL, we see that The growth rate of cases is increasing much more rapidly than testing and that the Daily Positivity Rate is increasing rapidly. This is what I believe a spike will look like in the data.
Compare Florida to Arizona: You can see that AZ's growth rate of cases is fairly close to the testing curve while the daily positivity rate (ignoring the 100% day) is creeping up. I think the data here is still inconclusive that AZ is seeing a spike.
Interesting stuff.
Deaths were up 9.7% from yesterday, but down 11% vs last week. Vs the 7-day rolling average, deaths were 18.7% above.
Mortality continues to slowly decline as we would expect it to based on the unknown number of cases. It currently sits at 5.2%. Mortality is dropping by .1% every 3 to 4 days. This represents an acceleration in the decline vs the 5-7 day decline we have seen over the last few weeks.
Deaths continue to drop while cases appear to be increasing, is it a result of more testing? Consider this graph that shows the 7 day rolling average growth rate of cases and deaths. The time scale on this graph is much shorter to allow us to see a more granular view of the movement. You can clearly see the flattening out and slight rise at the end of the growth rate in cases. The decline in the growth rate of deaths appears to be flattening as well.
Compare this to the longer time scale and you can see how the flattening and small upward is obscured.
After the protests, we wondered if the number of cases would spike. The best way I know of to determine that at this point is to look at the growth rate of the states with the largest protests. You can see this on the heat map and the growth rate tabs. At this point, it doesn't appear that the states with the most rioting (MN, MI, CA, GA, NY, KY) appear to be experiencing spikes yet.
The states with the largest increases in growth rate of cases are AZ, FL, AR, MT, SC, OR, NV.
Using the State Daily Dashboard Tab of the Tracker to look at FL, we see that The growth rate of cases is increasing much more rapidly than testing and that the Daily Positivity Rate is increasing rapidly. This is what I believe a spike will look like in the data.
Compare Florida to Arizona: You can see that AZ's growth rate of cases is fairly close to the testing curve while the daily positivity rate (ignoring the 100% day) is creeping up. I think the data here is still inconclusive that AZ is seeing a spike.
Interesting stuff.
Posted on 6/18/20 at 1:27 pm to Chromdome35
It'd be very interesting if states kept records of the point of origin of positive tests. A place like FL, a tourism magnet, would seem a natural draw to pull in many positive cases that would've otherwise been associated with other states.
Any idea if data like that is kept/ made available anywhere?
Any idea if data like that is kept/ made available anywhere?
Posted on 6/18/20 at 2:15 pm to AUin02
No, not aware of that. As much trouble as the states seem to be having just reporting new cases & deaths, I think trying to get any more detailed than that is not feasible.
Posted on 6/18/20 at 4:38 pm to Chromdome35
Yeah, in retrospect I assume that's at least partly in the definition of contact tracing, which we aren't really doing. Ah well.
Posted on 6/18/20 at 5:24 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE:
Based on feedback, I have created a new Dashboard page that I hope will present the data in an easier to consume format.
I have created a new state dashboard based on the new US Dashboard. You can choose the state and the date by changing the values in the top left of the sheet that are in the light yellow cells
I added a Week over Week section to the dashboard pages, this is located on the right-hand side of the Dashboard Pages.
I have left the previous dashboard page intact so you can still see the state rankings for a given day. I have renamed this tab "US Dashboard w State Rankings"
Page 234 of 331
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News