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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 5/6/20 at 9:58 pm to
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 5/6/20 at 9:58 pm to
Are we to assume that this 500 data dump is coming from those 1500ish deaths they found over the weekend in New York? If so I guess we can expect two more of these data dumps this week?

Today’s numbers were looking great until then.
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:25 am to
Yeah the testing numbers looked good and a 20% drop on positives compared to a week ago

Around 2K deaths is a nice little decrease compared to a week ago

Getting there
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 1:00 am to
quote:

Fify
According the CDC, through April 18th, New York had 25,292 excess fatalities. And despite what looks like at least 1,776 incomplete/missing deaths that takes a few weeks to update through the week of the 25th, they still have at least 1,904 excess fatalities for that week.

And since the excess fatality data from April 26th onwards hasn’t even been calculate yet, and there has already been over 3,500 new deaths PLUS 1,500 (looks like 500 or so were added today) previously undisclosed deaths, it’s looking like they will have many thousands more excess fatalities to add in the coming weeks even months.

And despite more to add to the 25th plus the subsequent weeks, they still have an excess over a 1,200 fatalities from the data through the 25th even after adding over 4,000 deaths to their totals.

In other words, their death totals look to still be underreporting death totals even adding a bunch of undisclosed deaths.

And the underreporting of deaths appears to he even greater outside or New York and all around the world as there are many more excess fatalities above and beyond the death totals and they continue to rise.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129624 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 6:55 am to
quote:

According the CDC, through April 18th, New York had 25,292 excess fatalities.


The CDC is getting their numbers from New York. Not vice versa.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 8:59 am to
quote:

The CDC is getting their numbers from New York. Not vice versa.
Ok? Unless New York is classifying dead people as alive or alive people as dead then I don’t see your point.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129624 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 8:59 am to
I don’t think anyone knows what New York is doing. Including New York.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 3:18 pm to
This is the link to the US state-level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

NOTE: I added a little section to show Week over Week comparables at the bottom of the data grid.











Posted by tgrgrd00
Kenner, LA
Member since Jun 2004
11683 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

don’t think anyone knows what New York is doing. Including New York.




I wish the graphs worked without NY in them.

This information was much better when NY was removed.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 4:32 pm to
The numbers without NY included are still available on the tracker site. I just don't have enough room to post both here.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17R0Z5T063iqskP--0VXYtbnJqtkhU8RJ-5jL5_V1OZM/edit#gid=679997437

Just go the the 2nd tab in the worksheet...US Without NY
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 4:33 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 8:46 pm to
This is the link to the US state-level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

NOTE: I added a little section to show Week over Week comparables at the bottom of the data grid.











Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 8:52 pm to
New cases were up over yesterday but down week over week. Deaths were down, but yesterday was the typical Tuesday spike. Deaths were just 72 below last week. The 7 day rolling average for both cases and deaths continues to very slowly fall.

Mortality rose again, will probably cross over 6% tomorrow.

Testing saw a large increase and the highest value to date at 345K, of those 30K were positive for a 8.8% positive rate. The volume of testing is what is driving the new case numbers; however, it is also driving down the positive rate. The cumulative positive rate has fallen to 15.4% and shows no signs of bottoming out.

I am fairly certain that testing has increased enough and changed focus to not just symptomatic individuals that the % positive rate will continue to fall.

Posted by ValDawgsta
Member since Jan 2020
1542 posts
Posted on 5/7/20 at 9:12 pm to
Admittedly we were just slightly below most of the recent Thursday’s, but today was the lowest thursday for new cases since March. With the majorly increased testing that is encouraging as you said.

Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129624 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 6:51 am to
quote:

Mortality rose again, will probably cross over 6% tomorrow.


If mortality doesn’t fall in the next two weeks, I’m not even sure what we’re looking at.
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8205 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 6:55 am to
We know that at least one million cases or more in NY are not included in the confirmed cases column. I wish there was better information on the gap of cases missed due to testing constraints in March and April.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 11:48 am to
quote:

We know that at least one million cases or more in NY are not included in the confirmed cases column.


do what now
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8205 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 2:52 pm to
Based on antibody testing, we know that there were cases not captured by active infection testing, right? But how many cases? If NYC alone has a 20% prevalence, that’s 1.6 million cases. That’s 1.3 million cases above the confirmed totals. I know there are issues with antibody testing, so I use a more conservative estimate.
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 2:53 pm
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 3:16 pm to
I leave this one to buckeye vol
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5641 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

According the CDC, through April 18th, New York had 25,292 excess fatalities.


Where did you find that number? Looking at the CDC Website, I see about 10,000 excess all cause mortality for NY as of May, although some of that data is preliminary. Their presentation of data is not very straightforward.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 5:29 pm to
quote:

I leave this one to buckeye vol
The NYC antibody testing (and to a little bit of a lesser extent the entire state’s testing) is about the only antibody data in the US that provides a reliable and valid enough estimate to actually make population level inferences.

So yeah. I think roughly 25% of NYC has been infected, which implies an IFR of about 0.9%. But here is the thing, if it’s off by a reply substantial 5% in either direction, the IFR only varies from 0.78% to 1.17%.

The fact that so many are infected and every thing is slowing down, we can estimate things with much more certainty even we conservatively widen the uncertainty.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 5/8/20 at 5:31 pm to
quote:

Where did you find that number? Looking at the CDC Website, I see about 10,000 excess all cause mortality for NY as of May, although some of that data is preliminary. Their presentation of data is not very straightforward.
New York City and New York State are separate data sets.
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