re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

I’ll take it for a Tuesday.

Fewer new cases (despite 58k more tests today than last Tuesday) and fewer deaths than the last 3 tuesdays.

Total shot it the dark here, but it seems like the worst hot spots in cities are improving a lot (NY and New Orleans) with no new major cities getting coverage as being extremely overwhelmed.

Maybe the new deaths are popping up in small numbers all over the place at this point. So instead of a city in dire straits the way NY was, you have a small number of deaths in small towns all over the US now. Anecdotally that’s what it “feels like” but I have no clue.

From a hospital resource standpoint obviously the spread out geographical problem would be preferable to the overwhelmed city.

I honestly feel you're better off just averaging out Saturday-Tuesday

These random jumps are dumb

It wasn't a particularly bad day, new cases were flat at 24.7K while deaths took their normal Tuesday spike up to 2.3K today. The 7-day rolling averages for new cases and deaths both continue downward.

Looking at deaths for the last three Tuesday's:

4/21 - 2,683
4/28 - 2,469
5/5 - 2,349

Its not going down very quickly but it is going down. I am think that Tuesdays may represent the single best day to focus in on for week over week trending.

Mortality went up to 5.84%, the highest observed value to date. I am still waiting to see this start trending down.

Testing was within the new normal range @ 259K with only 8.6% positive.

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Like where?

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Urban counties like LA county, Dallas county, Cook county and rural counties featuring prisons, meat packing plants, and anywhere with lots of nursing homes.

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Urban counties like LA county, Dallas county, Cook county and rural counties featuring prisons, meat packing plants, and anywhere with lots of nursing homes.

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That is exactly why the numbers in Tennessee are up some. About 7100 active cases overall. More than 2000 in the state detention facilities and another 400 or so in Tyson plants at the north and south ends of the state. That accounts for more than 1/3 of the active case load.

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Dallas county

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Dallas county is a complete shite show compared to the surrounding counties. Dallas county is doing a terrible job of tracking data and presenting what data they actually have. Clay Jenkins and Dr. Huang (HHS) got railed during a meeting with the county commissioners yesterday. Clay keeps throwing out the word "science" to try and get people to get in line, but he's been a complete mess. Three days in a row of record numbers in the 200s and they have no idea when they were tested and Clay keeps complaining about opening back up. Clearly opening up on the 1st has nothing to do with these numbers the last few days. Tarrant county is publishing positives on days the samples were collected and tests (with positives/negatives) per day. We're seeing positives added back 14 days from the day the result was released.

This seems like the most relevant graph.

As testing jumped from a million a month to a million every four days it makes sense new cases identified go up. The increase in new cases doesn't mean it is getting worse, it just means we are getting better at documenting them.

New York is just making shite up at this point. Ignore them.

So NY dumped in a bunch of deaths today which is the source of today's high number. Testing at 215K with a 10.3% positive rate.

I added a couple of comparative numbers at the bottom of the data grid, it shows today and yesterday vs. 7 days ago.