- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/28/20 at 7:56 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/28/20 at 7:56 pm to Chromdome35
I really don’t trust these numbers anymore. Counting “suspected” cases is folly when we don’t even know a true baseline R0, prevalence, or total cfr.
Hospital utilization is going to be the only reliable metric right now, JMO.
Hospital utilization is going to be the only reliable metric right now, JMO.
2
Posted on 4/28/20 at 7:58 pm to Tiguar
That’s bullshite too. Missouri can’t even get their hospitals to report beds over the weekend. We had like 60-something of 120 hospitals reporting for Saturday and Sunday. Today? 94
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:02 pm to Tiguar
quote:I think in terms of reliability it will be as followed:
Hospital utilization is going to be the only reliable metric right now, JMO.
1. Deaths
2. Hospitalizations
3. Cases
I think all are underestimations, but the underestimation is greatest by cases (8 to 16 times more than reported) and least by deaths (1.5 to 2 times as many deaths).
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:06 pm to buckeye_vol
The biggest underestimation is cases.
When we found out 10 million people have had it and we didn't see hospitals overrun across the country, people will stop caring. People are over this and a 99.8% survival rate isn't going to scare people anymore.
When we found out 10 million people have had it and we didn't see hospitals overrun across the country, people will stop caring. People are over this and a 99.8% survival rate isn't going to scare people anymore.
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:12 pm to TigerCruise
quote:Which is exactly what I said:
The biggest underestimation is cases.
quote:
but the underestimation is greatest by cases (8 to 16 times more than reported)
quote:You’re off by a considerable amount. Based on a meta-analysis of 13 different studies, the current IFR estimation is about 0.8%, 4 times your 0.2%, and 8 times the 0.1% estimate for the seasonal flu.
People are over this and a 99.8% survival rate isn't going to scare people anymore.
This post was edited on 4/28/20 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:15 pm to buckeye_vol
I mean overall hospital resource usage, not just “suspected or confirmed covid hospitalizations”.
Counting patients who look like covid deaths but tested neg multiple times is very silly.
I guess what I’m saying is if you hoped for 2200 deaths on the spike day but got 2400, don’t sweat it because that amount of bullshite is in the margin of error of judgement.
Counting patients who look like covid deaths but tested neg multiple times is very silly.
I guess what I’m saying is if you hoped for 2200 deaths on the spike day but got 2400, don’t sweat it because that amount of bullshite is in the margin of error of judgement.
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:18 pm to Tiguar
quote:Well it was clear that the underreporting on Sunday and Monday was greater than usual, so the “rebound” would be greater than usual.
I guess what I’m saying is if you hoped for 2200 deaths on the spike day but got 2400, don’t sweat it because that amount of bull shite is in the margin of error of judgement.
That being said, that’s why the 7-day moving average provides better insight. And we’re down about 12% from last Tuesday, which seems like a reasonable decline from the peak.
This post was edited on 4/28/20 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:23 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
You’re off by a considerable amount. Based on a meta-analysis of 13 different studies, the current IFR estimation is about 0.8%, 4 times your 0.2%, and 8 times the 0.1% estimate for the seasonal flu.
No one GAF.
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:23 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
You’re off by a considerable amount. Based on a meta-analysis of 13 different studies, the current IFR estimation is about 0.8%, 4 times your 0.2%, and 8 times the 0.1% estimate for the seasonal flu.
I'll bet you it ends up being closer to .2% than .8%
Posted on 4/28/20 at 8:32 pm to TigerCruise
quote:I mean the antibody studies in NYC indicate that about 24.7% of NYC has been infected, that’s an IFR of 0.83%.
I'll bet you it ends up being closer to .2% than .8%
Even if 100% of the 8.4 million residents were infected, they’re already at 0.205% and rising. And since here immunity is likely between 60 and 70 percent, it would be above 0.3% if they had already reached 70% infections and there were no more deaths.
So clearly it’s well above 0.2%, and it points to the 0.8% that the meta-analysis suggests which has a 95% confidence interval between 0.53% and 1.05%.
This post was edited on 4/28/20 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 4/28/20 at 9:25 pm to TigerCruise
I’m done being scared. I’m sad for lives lost, especially of those I knew but I’m done with fear.
I want to go to a baseball game, I want to get my hair cut, I want to have drinks with friends.
I want to go to a baseball game, I want to get my hair cut, I want to have drinks with friends.
This post was edited on 4/28/20 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 4/28/20 at 10:11 pm to tiger91
quote:
I’m done being scared.
I never really was. After suffering through the entire NFL draft and all its special messages, I’d almost rather just get sick at this point.
Posted on 4/28/20 at 10:57 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the US state-level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
Posted on 4/28/20 at 11:22 pm to Chromdome35
It's frustrating because it's very difficult to tell how many actually died each day from Sunday-Tuesday. We had 2400 die in 2 days then 2400 on one due to the dump, the truth about all 3 days is likely in the middle right?
At least cases seem to be decreasing a good amount
At least cases seem to be decreasing a good amount
Posted on 4/28/20 at 11:23 pm to Jrv2damac
Yeah the advertising has gone way overboard in recent weeks
I think people got the idea a while ago
I think people got the idea a while ago
Posted on 4/29/20 at 1:08 am to tiger91
quote:
I’m done being scared. I’m sad for lives lost, especially of those I knew but I’m done with fear.
Down vote for being scared of this in the first place.
Posted on 4/29/20 at 3:07 am to Chromdome35
Given that they are juking the stats, the fact that this week's Tuesday death bounce was the lowest since March is a huge positive.
frick the commies, time to let freedom ring.
frick the commies, time to let freedom ring.
Posted on 4/29/20 at 6:57 am to Chromdome35
The metric that I watch and is most meaningful to me is our hospital admissions vs discharges for confirmed cases as well as bed, icu, and vent availability. All of these numbers have been stable for the last week or so indicating we have reached peak in my area.
Posted on 4/29/20 at 7:01 am to Sweet Pickles
I’m wanting to follow these hospital numbers too. Is there a good source on these national numbers? I’ve seen the daily ventilator stuff out of Louisiana but is anyone comparing these numbers daily for all the states the way Worldometer is for deaths and new cases?
Posted on 4/29/20 at 7:30 am to Chromdome35
Can we get a tab of how many deaths have been in a nursing home across the us? No death is ok but that would be interesting to see how many have been in nursing homes compared to outside the nursing homes.
Page 199 of 331
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News