re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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Because I want to avoid a second wave / second lock down.

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Avoiding a second wave is a literal impossibility.

Is there any data, even some local or regional data that breaks down deaths by age/prior health condition?

I haven't found a consolidated source for that data. You can typically find at each states department of health website. I don't have time to go dig that all up every day.

You aren't getting herd immunity by staying shutdown. It would have had to already occurred due to wildly asymptomatic transmission and infection which makes further shutdown irrelevant anyway.

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You aren't getting herd immunity by staying shutdown. It would have had to already occurred due to wildly asymptomatic transmission and infection which makes further shutdown irrelevant anyway.

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Agreed.

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Except for maybe herd immunity.

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People throw herd immunity around a lot, but it would require either (1) a lot of deaths through effectively a second wave that we let run wild or (2) a lot of time while it slowly spreads in lockdown for the virus to hit the - what, 60% level required for effective herd immunity? It's not easy.

This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.

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Do we reach herd immunity to the latest strain of the flu each year? If not, why doesn’t it come back? Why is it always a new strain?

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I'm not a virologist, but my basic understanding is:

Flu (influenza viruses) mutates and changes rapidly by changing out some of its surface proteins so that our immune system doesn't recognize it anymore, and the most likely strains are included in the yearly flu vaccine, but sometimes an unexpected strain pops up and the vaccine doesn't work well that year. Even if we reached herd immunity for a specific strain, more new strains would mutate and pop up next year.

Covid 19 isn't a flu, it's a type of coronavirus, just like the common cold and the closely related SARS and MERS. Coronaviruses don't mutate very often at all and can't evade our immune system by changing surface proteins. The "common cold" is actually like 200+ different viruses, and since they don't make us that sick, nobody bothers to make vaccines for them, and you never manage to keep immunity against all of them.

Thankfully there is only one strain of Covid 19 (so far), not 200 like the common cold, and it can't mutate like flu, so a vaccine and/or herd immunity would be effective for it.

Today is going to be the worse day yet , crap.

Yep weekend bleed over

Pretty much only have reliable numbers wed-fri