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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:10 am to
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96150 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:10 am to
quote:

Usually Mondays have higher numbers than Saturday and Sunday.


Last week, it was actually Tuesday that had the spike, although it ended up being very consistent with Thursday and Friday.

Just the average number being down is encouraging for the peak having already passed.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:04 am to
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.









Posted by TeLeFaWx
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
29311 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:52 am to
These trends seem to be readily apparent at this point. We'd need to see a significant number of deaths today to not be at an inflection point.
Posted by ValDawgsta
Member since Jan 2020
1542 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:41 am to
Another strong drop in Spain. Fewest deaths since 3/21, fewest new cases since 3/17.
Posted by cdur86
Member since Jan 2014
1847 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Another strong drop in Spain. Fewest deaths since 3/21, fewest new cases since 3/17.


I'm kind of new to this thread but shouldn't we wait until this afternoon to get a good idea if that is true or not? I know around noon the US numbers jump by the hundreds. Is that the same for the other countries?
Posted by ValDawgsta
Member since Jan 2020
1542 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:46 am to
I could be wrong on this, but I think their official numbers come out in the early evening each day. So around lunchtime on the east coast of the US.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:46 am to
theyre quite a few hours ahead of us.
Posted by cdur86
Member since Jan 2014
1847 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:49 am to
I just refreshed it and it went from 100 to almost 900 for the US
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:50 am to
The European countries typically do one major update in the mid-morning (US Time). For some of them, they don't update again, others like Germany will update multiple times a day.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74629 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:51 am to
New York reported a fairy hefty jump in deaths today

But remember, Tuesday is often the day when the weekend backlog is reported
Posted by uway
Member since Sep 2004
33109 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 11:22 am to
If the hospitals aren't projected to be unable to provide caee for the projected patients, then none of these stats should weigh on the decision to reopen things.

Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 11:54 am to
Louisiana death spike ... deaths from 884 yesterday to 1013 today.
Posted by Nawlens Gator
louisiana
Member since Sep 2005
5963 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 11:55 am to

Chrome,

Your U.S. mortality rate in the country comparison bar charts show ~ 2.5% instead of > 4%.

Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129627 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:07 pm to
I thought we’d peak at 2 CFR.

Then I thought we’d peak at 4.

When is that fricking number going to stop going up?
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:10 pm to
Thanks for the catch Nawlens!

When I added the 7 day rolling average new cases column, I forgot to update the hard reference to the mortality cell, it was mistakenly pointing at the serious case %.
Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
37391 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

If the hospitals aren't projected to be unable to provide caee for the projected patients, then none of these stats should weigh on the decision to reopen things.
Things are still tight in several regions. In NJ 56% of all ventilators are in use right now. Considering that every major hospital should have a few free and there should be at least one free at every critical care center, that doesn't leave a lot. Luckily for NJ a good portion of the federal supply is staged at Fort Dix, right in the middle of NJ and not much more than 90 minutes from any part of the state.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129627 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

Things are still tight in several regions. In NJ 56% of all ventilators are in use right now. Considering that every major hospital should have a few free and there should be at least one free at every critical care center, that doesn't leave a lot.


Lol. That’s about the normal percentage of vents in use.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63851 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

When is that fricking number going to stop going up?

When start testing people not already infected and in the hospital in significant numbers.

The problem we're going to start running into is that testing will be too late. A lot people that *had* COVID will test negative-even though they survived. That'll distort the CFR even more.

With multiple studies showing ~15% infection rate... the CFR should be waaay lower.
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 12:19 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:20 pm to
I hope one of the takeaways after this is all over is the need for a much tighter reporting protocol.

We have been hamstrung throughout this event by the lack of solid information. Even the numbers being generated now are still not consistently reliable, ie the weekend hangover or the reclassification of death numbers.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:21 pm to
50-60% vents isn’t scary average icu
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