- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:33 pm to ValDawgsta
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:33 pm to ValDawgsta
quote:Well the IMHE model’s predictions for Friday through Sunday were pretty spot on:
My only quibble is that you think there will be a similar disparity tomorrow.
Projected
Friday—2007
Saturday—1851
Sunday—1522
Total—5380
Actual
Friday—2035 (28 more than predicted)
Saturday—1830 (21 less than predicted)
Sunday—1528 (6 more than predicted)
Total—5393 (13 more than predicted)
However, they projected the bounce back to be on Monday with 2150 and it to fall back 1953 on Tuesday for a total 4103.
So if they were 1 day off on when those numbers would be reported, but like the previous 4 days, were accurate about the aggregate totals (predicted even fewer deaths in fact), then Tuesday would have 2,568 deaths to make up for Monday’s low total (615 less than predicted plus 1953 on Tuesday).
Again using the 59.7% average increase over the last 3 Tuesdays, with a 1535 final Monday total, that would put us at 2,451 anyways.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 8:37 pm
1
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:35 pm to Chromdome35
Record day for recoveries
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:42 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Again using the 59.7% average increase over the last 3 Tuesdays, with a 1535 final Monday total, that would put us at 2,451 anyways.
I’ll make no claims at expertise here but if we hit 2451 or above tomorrow I’ll be shocked. Will definitely come eat crow if that happens. I’m predicting well under that.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:44 pm to ValDawgsta
quote:Just note, I’m not predicting 2,451+ deaths on Tuesday, I’m predicting that the total deaths on Tuesday are much lower, but 500+ deaths are a result of an under reporting from Saturday-Monday.
I’ll make no claims at expertise here but if we hit 2451 or above tomorrow I’ll be shocked. Will definitely come eat crow if that happens. I’m predicting well under that.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:49 pm to buckeye_vol
Totally understand, and there’s definitely reporting issues between Sunday and Tuesday that cause these jumps. I’m just arguing that even those issues won’t cause a reported death total of over 2400.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:56 pm to ValDawgsta
quote:Well that’s just based on the under-reporting from the previous 3 weeks, and the fact that this weekend was a holiday weekend, which is why the previous 3 weekends we saw some of it made up Monday (28% increase) so Monday to Tuesday potentially has more carry over than usual.
I’m just arguing that even those issues won’t cause a reported death total of over 2400.
But I guess we’ll see what happens.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:02 pm to LosLobos111
quote:
Record day for recoveries
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:18 pm to Tigerbait357
You can tell things are slowing down based on the mere fact that no new deaths are reported on the website yet even though you know there are some deaths out there to get reported. First time I have seen nothing get posted right after the day switches in many, many days.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:11 pm to uppermidwestbama
I figured out the virus peaked by the medias change of reporting. It has shifted to what could have been done, and not what is being done. That usually only happens once the disaster has become stale and boring (ending).
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:23 pm to uppermidwestbama
Even with continued declines, we could hit 1 million cases in the US around May 1. And if we drift at 5% and struggle to get the daily rate of growth below 4% in April, then we could see another peak in daily new infections within a week. Thus, we want to see the growth below 4% this month.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:25 pm to uppermidwestbama
As a side note, NY is now only testing if you need hospitalization. That is what many other states do so we are getting closer to more consistent testing criteria nationally.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:29 pm to Chromdome35
I'm a little shocked that we didn't have more new cases today than we did yesterday or the day before. Usually Mondays have higher numbers than Saturday and Sunday.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:55 pm to imjustafatkid
Another infection study, more asympotmatic infected.
LINK (twitter post)
Not random. Not perfect. But interesting.
LINK (twitter post)
quote:
More data on the #COVID19 attack rate in New York. Doctors screened all expectant moms at one NY hospital and found 29/210 (13.8%) were asymptomatic and positive. Exposure in New York to covid could be very high given emerging data on scope of prevalence
Not random. Not perfect. But interesting.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 3:17 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Mortality has crossed into 4% territory, how much of this mortality has been due to cases from senior living centers?
Could it also be impacted by changes in testing?
Someone mentioned NY is only testing people requiring hospitalization, which would cause a decline in positive cases and an increase in mortality.
I would have assumed most states would expand testing as it became easier/quicker. That doesn't appear to be the case though since testing peaked on 4/4 at 216k and has been gradually declining since to 120k yesterday.
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 3:24 am
Page 170 of 331
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News