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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:04 pm to Oenophile Brah
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:04 pm to Oenophile Brah
No, but the source data is fricked. I'll correct it as soon as the source does.
3
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:06 pm to Chromdome35
More deaths than projected today and less than projected yesterday
Thankfully its not a huge increase
NY took a beating
Thankfully its not a huge increase
NY took a beating
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:19 pm to Chromdome35
Please don't laugh ...
Take the cumulative and current hospitalizations. CUMULATIVE would be all that have been in the icu total whether they are there now or not. And current is obviously current. So the difference between the two would be either discharged or dead, hopefully more discharged than dead.
And I know in Louisiana we have 535 on vents currently or at least what they reported so you may never have correct info to work with depending on how states report this.
Take the cumulative and current hospitalizations. CUMULATIVE would be all that have been in the icu total whether they are there now or not. And current is obviously current. So the difference between the two would be either discharged or dead, hopefully more discharged than dead.
And I know in Louisiana we have 535 on vents currently or at least what they reported so you may never have correct info to work with depending on how states report this.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:33 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
No, but the source data is fricked. I'll correct it as soon as the source does.
Thank you sir
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:45 pm to Chromdome35
Glad to see recoveries steadily increasing.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 9:45 pm to tiger91
quote:
I'm so frustrated with the numbers JBE keeps giving ... says that 2500 beds per day in the NOLA area will be needed by May .. can y'all see that?
JBE has turned into a fear-mongering POS. You might do well to not listen/watch everything/time he comes on the TV. I think he has picked the worst models to base his decisions off of and runs with it.
No big deal to him...I'm sure he thinks he is doing the right thing trying to actually scare everyone into doing what he suggests.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:08 pm to DMAN1968
I'm seeing April 16th as the projected peak for deaths per day. Does that sound about right?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:13 pm to Eat Your Crow
I'm generally NOT a fan of fivethirtyeight. But this is a nice explaination of why a COVID model is so hard to make.
LINK
Teaser quote...
LINK
Teaser quote...
quote:
Well, friends, that’s the nature of modeling this beast. (And one of the reasons why FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have a model of its own. Thanks for your emails asking for one, though.) Using a mathematical model to predict the future is valuable for experts, even if there are vast gulfs between possible outcomes. But it’s not always easy to make sense of the results and how they change over time, and that confusion can hurt both your brain and your heart. That’s why we want to talk about what goes into a model of a pandemic. Hopefully, understanding the uncertainty can help you get the most out of all the numbers flying around.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:22 pm to RD Dawg
Florida as of 6pm
9585 cases
1215 hospital
163 deaths. 1.7% death rate
Broward 1655 cases
Dade 3029
Palm Beach 781
9585 cases
1215 hospital
163 deaths. 1.7% death rate
Broward 1655 cases
Dade 3029
Palm Beach 781
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:31 pm to Chromdome35
Why has the death rate doubled in the last 14 days? Are there any theories?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:38 pm to Eat Your Crow
The model I was referencing is more about resources.
LINK
It shows peak resource usage for the state in about 6 days. Now, it's a model, I don't really trust any of them but it is counter to what JBE has been and still is saying.
LINK
It shows peak resource usage for the state in about 6 days. Now, it's a model, I don't really trust any of them but it is counter to what JBE has been and still is saying.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:40 pm to Taxing Authority
That is a great article! Thanks for sharing.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:43 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
I'm seeing April 16th as the projected peak for deaths per day. Does that sound about right?
That seems to be in line with the New York predicted peak so I'd say that's a fairly reasonable assumption given how many cases New York has compared to the rest of the country.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 10:58 pm to halleburton
quote:
Why has the death rate doubled in the last 14 days? Are there any theories?
The huge growth in cases over the month added cases to the denominator that wouldn’t really immediately figure into the numerator because time to death is over two weeks. So, as those cases resolve, some recovered - some deaths, the numerator was bound to climb.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:00 am to DMAN1968
What would you like him to do?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:29 am to halleburton
Halleburton, could you expand on your question so I know exactly what your asking? Which column of data are you looking at?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:26 am to topcat88
quote:
What would you like him to do?
Maybe NOT try his best to scare the crap out of everyone.
My co-workers parents (51 and 53 years old with no other issues) will not let anyone near the house...If she brings them something she has to set it on the porch...he comes out, sprays it with lysol and waits awhile before bringing it inside. If he brings her something he places it on her porch, sprays it with lysol and leaves.
JBE is using garbage modeling to give "factual" information...it's BS. He still makes comparisons to Italy!
Sorry folks...it's tiring...I'm derailing this particular thread. Apologies Chrome...keep up the good work!
Posted on 4/4/20 at 4:31 am to LosLobos111
Let this sink in: The corona cold virus has been with us for almost
forever. If we ever had the corona cold virus in our past, a PCR test
could show us as being corona “positive.” And if a person dies from
almost any cause—short of a car wreck or bullet wound—a postmortem test
that reflects a positive reading for corona would require (by the
demands of government) that the deceased be listed as having died FROM
corona. But in many cases (if not most cases), the deceased died WITH
corona but not FROM corona.
forever. If we ever had the corona cold virus in our past, a PCR test
could show us as being corona “positive.” And if a person dies from
almost any cause—short of a car wreck or bullet wound—a postmortem test
that reflects a positive reading for corona would require (by the
demands of government) that the deceased be listed as having died FROM
corona. But in many cases (if not most cases), the deceased died WITH
corona but not FROM corona.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 6:27 am to DMAN1968
Sounds like your co-workers parents are smart people. If all behaved the same, we would be out of this mess in 14 days.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 6:30 am to jeffsdad
quote:
we would be out of this mess in 14 days.
Not really. I’m guessing this idea started on Facebook.
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