re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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We keep hearing the Administration talk about testing, what good does it do to administer 1m tests if you can’t get them processed in a lab.

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Bell curve keeps climbing

The question on the previous page regarding why the mortality rate is increasing got me thinking. If we have 5110 deaths on 215K cases at a mortality rate of 2.37%, how many cases should we have if the real mortality rate is 2, or 1, etc...

So I worked it up in excel to see


If the real mortality rate is .1% then the size of the infected population would be 5.1M. If the real mortality rate is .01% then the size of the infected population would be 51M.

This is why it is so critical to develop the proper kind of testing to determine who has had it and recovered.

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So I worked it up in excel to see

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Thanks for doing that. It's very handy.

Given our positive detection rate is 18% and hospitalization rate is 14% gives us just how little of the "walking around" population has been tested. We're so heavily biased toward testing the obviously positive people the mortality rate is meaningless.

We really should invest some testing on random folks. especially in the non-hotspot areas. That could really inform a lot of decision making over the coming weeks.

That was a prediction of tomorrows deaths based on today's total cases and growth rate. The 30,190 under the cases columns is the same.

I was just wondering what cases would be tomorrow if it grew at the same rate tomorrow as it did today. Since the growth rate of cases appears to be leveling out around 14%-16%, I wondered how many cases we might see tomorrow.

Of course, it's unlikely that the growth rate will be the same, so the actual will obviously be higher or lower.

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Is that 14% of people tested are hospitalized?

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*checks Chromedome's spreadsheet again* Grrr.. I messed up. It's 14% of active cases. Not 14% of positive tests. Good catch.

As a long time TD lurker, the information and effort in this thread caused me to sign up … just to say thank you!!

Keep up the good work and stay well!

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So I worked it up in excel to see
Thanks for doing that. It's very handy.

Given our positive detection rate is 18% and hospitalization rate is 14% gives us just how little of the "walking around" population has been tested. We're so heavily biased toward testing the obviously positive people the mortality rate is meaningless.

We really should invest some testing on random folks. especially in the non-hotspot areas. That could really inform a lot of decision making over the coming weeks.

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Yes thanks again for all the work Chrome.

I have no doubt if we did this testing it would prove what we all know, millions probably already had it and thought it was just a flu bug. But this testing wont happen, we cant get people to test for Aids when it might save their life, they certainly wont take a test to prove they already had something.

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We keep hearing the Administration talk about testing, what good does it do to administer 1m tests if you can’t get them processed in a lab.

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I did get insight into this with the presser yesterday. The doctor said that there are over half a million tests sitting in places unused and 1000s at labs all over the country waiting to be processed.

There are 11 different tests available now. A clinic will use test A and send to lab A that has a week backlog. They could have used B sent to B and been processed immediately. They are working with the states to show them how to get to the proper labs with the proper test. Course it will be mute with the 15 minute test available in a few days.

Explained the disconnect between Pence talking about millions of tests but only 100,000 being tested and processed a day.

I too would like to thank you for all your work on this. It is nice to have it all in one place. Keep up the good work.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days' numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actually is. This is just a simple indicator.