re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I am showing the entire month of March in this screen capture.

We crossed the 1000 deaths a day threshold. At a 4 day doubling rate, we are 4 days from 10K deaths and 8 days from 20K. Looking at the progression from this past Saturday, it looks pretty clear that Sunday and Monday were understated.

The mortality rate continues to climb and is up to 2.37%.

The growth rate of cases seems to be leveling off in the 14%-16% range. The next couple of days should tell. I've read several articles where the metric of a 6 day doubling rate was standard for viral outbreaks. A 6 day doubling rate would be 16.66%, so we are in the ballpark of normal. The good thing about this is it buys time for the drug trials to yeild solid results. We should all pray that they work. If they don't, we are in trouble.

Testing really seems to have leveled off at around 105K a day level. I suspect this is an indicator of lab capacity more than it is of testing volume. There are reports in the media about lab backups...we see that represented in these numbers.

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There are reports in the media about lab backups...we see that represented in these numbers.

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Per our state health department, the public state health labs have a turnaround time of 24-72 hours. If you use a testing facility that utilizes a private facility like LabCorp it's taking up to 7 days to get results. Seems like the private labs around here are very bottlenecked, unfortunately.

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The growth rate of cases seems to be leveling off in the 14%-16% range.

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This sucks. A long sit at a steady rate would indicate a really, really, long way to go.

It conitnues to spread throughout the country getting people who are at high risk put into the hospital and die. They are also only testing people who meet clinical symptoms in most states, inflating the death rate a bit.

At the end of the day data has already been showing that people over 60 with heath issues have greater than a 10 percent chance of death. That is unfortunate.

Sadly many more people are going to die. We will be hitting 2,000 deaths in a single day in mere days.

I just try to be happy with green cells

The only theory that makes sense to me is that there are A LOT more cases out in the wild than we think. Let's assume the mortality rate is 1% (who knows where this will finish, doesn't matter for this example) if we had 1000 deaths at a 1% mortality rate, that would indicate a an infected population of roughly 100K people. If 1% is the actual mortality rate, then the fact that we're seeing twice that number would suggest there are a lot more people out there with the disease and 1% of them are dying.

If the actual mortality rate is much lower than 1% as some people suspect, then the infected population is pretty large.

It could be that the mortality rate is very low like the flu, but carried in a much more infectious virus.

They did say that the R0 number could be north of 3.

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They did say that the R0 number could be north of 3.

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Given the "first arrival" and the R0's testing got to be missing a ton of cases. Or something else is way, way off.

Lots of trashy data. I'm starting to think one of th things to look for over teh next few days is if any "hotspots" outside of NOLA, NYC, start popping up. Much of the modeling I've seen suggest that should have already happened.