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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:19 pm to Taxing Authority
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:19 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
Not unreasonable at all. Sorry to say
Show me how with our current data?
We know the rates of daily deaths are decreasing even in NYC and even rates of infection are decreasing but those numbers obviously will be erratic with increase testing.
The 100K will also mean we catch up to Italy in per capita deaths and mortality rates.
So our mortality rates are gonna go from 1.6% over 10% in 30 days?Or even 60 days?
How is that possible?
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 7:21 pm
3
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:25 pm to RD Dawg
It's called fear mongering. They are trying to get people to stay in doors by saying that 200,000 people will die despite the social distancing policies that have already been implemented.
Problem is, if they are high balling the numbers and fewer people die than estimated, this will backfire on them and the backlash will be a shitshow of epic proportions.
Problem is, if they are high balling the numbers and fewer people die than estimated, this will backfire on them and the backlash will be a shitshow of epic proportions.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:28 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
How is that possible?
I think there's some underlying assumption that Detroit and Chicago are the next NYCs.its just going to roll through the country.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:34 pm to TigerFanatic99
Are the numbers being skewed by the fact that every deceased that tests positive for Covid-19 antibodies is included in the total number? Even those by heart attack, suicide and etc.?
Has anyone heard of those rumors are true or not?
Has anyone heard of those rumors are true or not?
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:39 pm to bayoumuscle21
I suspect the truth is in the middle somewhere. There is a high probability that some deaths are being attributed to COVID that shouldn't be...there is also a high probability there are deaths that should have been attributed to COVID from the period before we started testing.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 7:56 pm to Chromdome35
I’ve been watching this thread for a few days and appreciate the dedication.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:05 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I keep waiting for the social distancing and stay home policies to start showing results. We’ve been doing this for over 2 weeks which is the incubation period, or so we’re told.
So far the curve AIN’T flattening.
If we were 11 days behind Italy like the previous trends indicated, flattening should start happening tomorrow.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:07 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
quote:
How is that possible?
I think there's some underlying assumption that Detroit and Chicago are the next NYCs.its just going to roll through the country.
I'd be shocked if any other major metro area gets anywhere near NYC, even on a per 100,000 basis. Maybe New Orleans is there or maybe Detroit might get close, but other than that, I don't see it.
As an example, we (Cook County/Chicago, not doing great but not terrible) have been locked down as long as they have. We have about 60 deaths and about 3,700 cases. Cook County is about 5 million people; NYC is about 8.5 million and has more than 1,000 deaths and 45,000-ish cases. Houston, Atlanta, SF, LA, Dallas, etc. - I just don't see it with their current rates and what they've been doing policy-wise. The epidemiology just doesn't make a lot of sense to get there.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:12 pm to LSURussian
According to the charts today the curves are staying reasonably flat ...... except for New York and New Jersey.
It hurts to see NY/NJ in such a bad predicament. At the same time they extrapolated the data from all the states to give a visual aid of how we can keep the growth relatively flat by following instructions. San Diego has only 7 deaths and San Francisco has only 6.
One month of this and we can do it. Gotta play it smart though.
It hurts to see NY/NJ in such a bad predicament. At the same time they extrapolated the data from all the states to give a visual aid of how we can keep the growth relatively flat by following instructions. San Diego has only 7 deaths and San Francisco has only 6.
One month of this and we can do it. Gotta play it smart though.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:15 pm to crazyatthecamp
I hate seeing New York and New Jersey hit so bad...... New York is where I was born and I spent my childhood in jersey.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:16 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Problem is, if they are high balling the numbers and fewer people die than estimated, this will backfire on them and the backlash will be a shitshow of epic proportions.
Or they get to claim it as a victory and say if they hadn’t put these measures in place far more people would have died.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:19 pm to crazyatthecamp
So I’m not going to read through this thread but I do check the charts in the OP.
How reliable is the source? How reliable are these numbers? I’m just not buying into the death rate going so far back up with more measures being put into place and more proven effective treatments coming out. What’s causing it to “go back up?”
How many people in the US are actually dying from it as opposed to how many deaths are just being attributed to it? What’s the average age for those who have died directly from the disease?
How reliable is the source? How reliable are these numbers? I’m just not buying into the death rate going so far back up with more measures being put into place and more proven effective treatments coming out. What’s causing it to “go back up?”
How many people in the US are actually dying from it as opposed to how many deaths are just being attributed to it? What’s the average age for those who have died directly from the disease?
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:23 pm to crazyatthecamp
quote:
One month of this and we can do it. Gotta play it smart though.
One month of this and the economic devastation will not be worth it.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:25 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Problem is, if they are high balling the numbers
They really aren't though.
This was a "best case scenario" with full "mitigation".
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:26 pm to RD Dawg
If the growth rate of new cases is trending down, how is that not flattening the curve?
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:28 pm to Janky
The number of new cases and hospitalizations is increasing every day.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:32 pm to LSURussian
And today rather significantly.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:32 pm to LSURussian
Right, but to a lessor degree. Wouldn't that indicate a flattening? They are increasing but at a slower clip, no? The rounding of the bell curve? Maybe I am wrong, but that is how I was looking at it.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:32 pm to Janky
quote:
If the growth rate of new cases is trending down, how is that not flattening the curve?
People are misusing the term “flattening the curve”.
Flattening the curve originally meant just delaying the curve to keep our facilities from being overrun. Making the bell curve flatter.
Around here, people are starting to use “flattening the curve” to describe the turning point. In terms of the total deaths on a log curve, going from a steep and constant slope to a less steep curve that eventually flattens out.
A bunch of conflation. I’ve even caught myself doing it.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:36 pm to TeLeFaWx
Agreed. I referencing the rounding of the bell curve as the flattening.
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