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Started By
Message
re: Crime has been falling in DC.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Cities not reporting data to the FBI doesn't mean that the data is bad or would reverse the trend.
“Teams not reporting their stats to the NCAA doesn’t mean that the data used for season leaders for rushing and passing is bad or wrong.”
-SFP (probably)
No, it’s not technically wrong for what it is. It just doesn’t represent reality.
This post was edited on 8/12/25 at 12:18 pm
1
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:19 pm to FlyDownTheField83
quote:
When police departments have stopped reporting data
Some are not allowed to or are strongly discouraged from making arrests depending on who commits the crime and the type of crime. Those are numbers that were previously reported and now are not.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:24 pm to prplhze2000
It’s been reclassified, dismissed, and not prosecuted and throw in the fired person who manipulated the stats before reporting them to the FBI and then you get falling into the abyss.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:25 pm to texag7
quote:
Yes it 100% means the data is bad
Not when we can look at the individual city-level data and compare the FBI modeling.
This post was edited on 8/12/25 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:26 pm to extremetigerfanatic
quote:
“Teams not reporting their stats to the NCAA doesn’t mean that the data used for season leaders for rushing and passing is bad or wrong.”
Again, are you assuming they don't keep their own data? And we can't go look it up?
quote:
No, it’s not technically wrong for what it is. It just doesn’t represent reality.
IIRC, when we looked at this last year, the city-level data showed bigger decreases than the modeled data
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:33 pm to prplhze2000
Yay! Murders are going to be back at 2019 totals. The highest number prior to the pandemic since 2003?
What a win. Take a victory lap.
What a win. Take a victory lap.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:41 pm to the808bass
It just needs perspective, per Neighborhood Scout
Crimes per square mile
Tuscaloosa- 60
Birmingham- 83
Baton Rouge- 185
New Orleans- 105
Washington DC - 517
Anyone arguing that’s not bad is too stupid to process their own oxygen.
Crimes per square mile
Tuscaloosa- 60
Birmingham- 83
Baton Rouge- 185
New Orleans- 105
Washington DC - 517
Anyone arguing that’s not bad is too stupid to process their own oxygen.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:49 pm to llfshoals
quote:
Anyone arguing that’s not bad is too stupid to process their own oxygen.
Are people arguing it's not bad or that it's falling? Those are 2 distinct positions.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:57 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Are people arguing it's not bad
Yes. Numbnuts.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 12:58 pm to prplhze2000
When looking at crime numbers I tend to focus on murders rather than assaults and property crimes for the simple reason that a corpse is going to be tallied more reliably that a missing item or a report of an armed robbery.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:00 pm to the808bass
In this thread?
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:00 pm to prplhze2000
When you give up on policing arrest numbers fall. It doesn't make the streets any safer though.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:00 pm to MilwaukeeKosherDills
quote:
When looking at crime numbers I tend to focus on murders rather than assaults and property crimes for the simple reason that a corpse is going to be tallied more reliably that a missing item or a report of an armed robbery.
This is the best way to do it, for those reasons. It's hard to hide a murder, let alone several/dozens of them.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:09 pm to prplhze2000
quote:it makes for an interesting association with rise and decline of the BLM movement, doesn't it though?
Homicide rates in D.C. increased from 2017-21, before dropping sharply in 2022, and spiking again in 2023. The number of homicides in D.C. per year has been decreasing since 2023 — from 274 homicides in 2023, to 187 in 2024.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:11 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
Crime has been falling in DC
Ok. It is still too high.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:22 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
Homicides are hard to cover up if you want to juke the stats.
There are ways to change the way stats are recorded. Change the shootings ultimate outcome to arrival condition to the ER.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:27 pm to prplhze2000
quote:Because they changed their system and not every LEO was ready or able to input their data. You should know this.
Crime rates fell nationwide in 2024 according to FBI data, with a 4.5 percent decrease in violent crime.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 1:29 pm to SlowFlowPro
Years ago, a city in our county classified a case of a body found in the trunk of a car with multiple gunshots as a suicide. You can always manipulate statistics.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 2:09 pm to FlyDownTheField83
quote:You need to provide some - ANY - evidence that homicides are being undercounted.
When police departments have stopped reporting data to the FBI what do you think that does to the number of murders reported?
Posted on 8/12/25 at 2:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
SFP
Figures the fake lawyer would think it’s about them.
Figures the fake lawyer would think it’s about them.
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